| Title |
A Probabilistic Queueing Model for Force Requirement Estimation in Counter-Drone Defense Systems |
| Authors |
한만준(Man-Jun Han) ; 정종문(Jong-Moon Chung) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.5573/ieie.2026.63.9.3 |
| Keywords |
Drone saturation attack; Queueing theory; Critical threshold; Cost-risk optimization; JADC2 |
| Abstract |
The increasing use of drone saturation attacks has exposed the capacity limitations and cost asymmetry of conventional air defense systems. This study proposes a probabilistic queueing-based framework for estimating force requirements in counter-drone defense systems under saturation attacks. To capture burst and wave-based attack patterns, a time-varying arrival rate is introduced, and the defense process is modeled using a c(G/D/1)-based queueing structure that reflects deterministic engagement cycles. In addition, a Jackson-type queueing network concept is used to represent load transfer among layered air defense systems. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the failure probability increases nonlinearly as system utilization approaches the critical threshold and that layered defense improves overall defense performance compared with a single-layer structure. The study further derives a risk-based minimum force requirement and a cost-risk optimal force level. The results indicate that layered defense alone cannot fully resolve the cost asymmetry problem, suggesting the need for AI-enabled weapon-to-target assignment and G/D/c-based cooperative queue structures in a JADC2-enabled integrated defense network. |