| Title |
Development of a Stochastic Precipitation Generation Model for Generating Multi-site Daily Precipitation |
| Keywords |
gamma distribution;Markov;multisite;precipitation;statical correlation;감마분포;강수;공간적 상관관계;다지점;마코프 |
| Abstract |
In this study, a stochastic precipitation generation framework for simultaneous simulation of daily precipitation at multiple sites is presented. The precipitation occurrence at individual sites is generated using hybrid-order Markov chain model which allows higher-order dependence for dry sequences. The precipitation amounts are reproduced using Anscombe residuals and gamma distributions. Multisite spatial correlations in the precipitation occurrence and amount series are represented with spatially correlated random numbers. The proposed model is applied for a network of 17 locations in the middle of Korean peninsular. Evaluation statistics are reported by generating 50 realizations of the precipitation of length equal to the observed record. The analysis of results show that the model reproduces wet day number, wet and dry day spell, and mean and standard deviation of wet day amount fairly well. However, mean values of 50 realizations of generated precipitation series yield around 23% Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of the average value of observed maximum numbers of consecutive wet and dry days and 17% RMSE of the average value of observed annual maximum precipitations for return periods of 100 and 200 years. The provided model also reproduces spatial correlations in observed precipitation occurrence and amount series accurately. |