| Title |
Development of a Short-term Rainfall Forecast Model Using Sequential CAPPI Data |
| Keywords |
rainfall forecasting;weather radar;sequential CAPPI;rainfall evolution;강우예측;기상레이더;연속 CAPPI;강우 성장 |
| Abstract |
The traditional simple extrapolation type short term quantitative rainfall forecast can not realize the evolution of rainfall generating weather system. To overcome the drawback of the linear extrapolation type rainfall forecasting model, the history of a weather system from sequential weather radar information and a polynomial regression technique were used to generate forecast fileds of x-directional, y-directional velocities and radar reflectivity which considered the nonlinear behavior related to the evolution of weather systems. Results demonstrated that test statistics of forecasts using the developed model is better than that of 2-CAPPI forecast. However there is still a large room to improve the forecast of spatial and temporal evolution of local storms since the model is not based on a fully physical approach but a statistical approach. |