| Title |
A Study on Forecasting Traffic Congestion Using IMA (Integrated Moving Average) of Speed Sequence Array |
| Keywords |
instability phenomenon;motorways;reliability theory;IMA;불안정한 현상;연속류 도로;안정성이론;누적이동평균 |
| Abstract |
This paper presents an analysis of the instability phenomenon on motorways, with the aim of arriving at the definition of a control strategy suitable for keeping the flow stable. By using some results of the motorway reliability theory, a relationship and some flow characteristics is obtained, which shows that the existence of a reliability threshold critical for flow stability. The macroscopic flow characteristics corresponding to this threshold are very different in different situations, so that this control of flow stability requires the analysis of speed and density microscopic process surveyed on a cross section of the motor-way carriage ways to be controlled. A method is presented, based on integrated moving average(IMA) analysis in real time of these processes, by which it is possible to detect the approach of instability before its effects become manifest, and to single out the proper control strategy in different situations. |