| Title |
Estimation of Design Rainfalls Considering BCM2 Simulation Results |
| Keywords |
Climate change scenario;BCM2;design rainfall;non-stationary frequency analysis;기후변화 시나리오;확률강우량;비정상성 강우빈도해석법 |
| Abstract |
Climatic disasters are globally soaring due to recent acceleration of global warming. Especially the occurrence frequency of heavy rainfalls is increasing since the rainfall intensity is increasing due to the change of rainfall pattern, This study proposed the non-stationary frequency analysis for estimating design rainfalls in a design target year, considering the change of rainfall pattern through the climatic change scenario. The annual rainfalls, which are regionally downscaled from the BCM2 (A2 scenario) and NCEP data using a K-NN method, were used to estimate the parameters of a probability distribution in a design target year, based on the relationship between annual mean rainfalls and distribution parameters. A Gumbel distribution with a probability weighted method was used in this study. Seoul rainfall data, which are the longest observations in Korea, were used to verified the proposed method. Then, rainfall data at 7 stations, which have statistical trends in observations in 2006, were used to estimate the design rainfalls in 2020. The results indicated that the regional annual rainfalls, which were estimated through the climate change scenario, significantly affect on the design rainfalls in future. |