| Title |
Estimation of Mean Life and Reliability of Highway Pavement Based on Reliability Theory |
| Keywords |
pavement management system;reliability theory;probability of failure;mean life;maximum likelihood estimation;survival probability;포장관리시스템(PMS);신뢰성 이론;고장확률;평균 수명;최대우도 추정법;생존확률 |
| Abstract |
In this paper, the author presents a reliability estimation technique to analyze the effects of traffic loads on pavement mean life based on the national highway database of Suwon and Uijeongbu region from 1999 to 2008. The estimation of the mean life, its standard deviation and reliability for pavement sections are calculated by using an appropriate distribution, Lognormal distribution, based on reliability theory. Furthermore, the probability paper method and Maximum likelihood estimation are both used to estimate parameters. The author found that mean life of newly constructed sections and over-layed sections is about 6.5 to 7.9 years and 7.3 to 9.1 years, respectively. The author also ascertained that the results of cumulative failure probability for pavement life between the proposed methods and observed data are similar. Such an assessment methodology and measures based on reliability theory can provide useful information for maintenance plans in pavement management systems as long as additional life data on pavement sections are accumulated. |