| Title |
An Exploratory Analysis of Locational Characteristics Impact on the Discrepancy between Predicted vs. Actual Demand of Rail Transit |
| Keywords |
transit demand;location characteristics;predicted- and actual-demand rate(PAR);subway station;analysis of variance;전철수요;입지특성;수요실현율;전철역;분산분석 |
| Abstract |
We built subway stops in order to meet demand. To do so, a standardized method is used to predict the demand. However, in some subway stops there are only few people moving around sparsely, but in some other stops there are too many people crammed in a crowd. The gap between forecasting and actual uses varies from 10% to more than 1,000%. This study is aimed to find out where this discrepancy between predicted vs. actual demand for urban rail transit comes from. Specifically, 40 subway stops in Seoul Metropolitan Area, which were opened last 10 years, are examined. This study suggests that, for better forecasting, we need to consider stops" locational characteristics as well as weekday commute-oriented exogenous factors. Locational characteristics includes; whether a stops is a terminal and/or weekend tourism node. There seems no "one size fits all" solution for transit demand forecasting; locational characteristics need to be reflected. |