| Title |
Estimation of Snow Damage and Proposal of Snow Damage Threshold based on Historical Disaster Data |
| Authors |
오영록(Oh, YeoungRok) ; 정건희(Chung, Gunhui) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2017.37.2.0325 |
| Keywords |
대설피해;적설심별 피해액 추정;다중회귀모형;대설 피해 적설심 기준 Snow damages;Damages estimation based on snow depth;Multiple linear regression model;Snow damage threshold |
| Abstract |
Due to the climate change, natural disaster has been occurred more frequently and the number of snow disasters has been also increased. Therefore, many researches have been conducted to predict the amount of snow damages and to reduce snow damages. In this study, snow damages over last 21 years on the Natural Disaster Report were analyzed. As a result, Chungcheong-do, Jeolla-do, and Gangwon-do have the highest number of snow disasters. The multiple linear regression models were developed using the snow damage data of these three provinces. Daily fresh snow depth, daily maximum, minimum, and average temperatures, and relative humidity were considered as possible inputs for climate factors. Inputs for socio-economic factors were regional area, greenhouse area, farming population, and farming population over 60. Different regression models were developed based on the daily maximum snow depth. As results, the model efficiency considering all damage (including low snow depth) data was very low, however, the model only using the high snow depth (more than 25 cm) has more than 70% of fitness. It is because that, when the snow depth is high, the snow damage is mostly caused by the snow load itself. It is suggested that the 25 cm of snow depth could be used as the snow damage threshold based on this analysis. |