| Title |
A Development of Summer Seasonal Rainfall and Extreme Rainfall Outlook Using Bayesian Beta Model and Climate Information |
| Authors |
김용탁(Kim, Yong-Tak) ; 이문섭(Lee, Moon-Seob) ; 채병수(Chae, Byung-Soo) ; 권현한(Kwon, Hyun-Han) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2018.38.5.0655 |
| Keywords |
수문 예측 모형;극치강수;기상인자;베타분포 Hybrid forecasting model;Extreme rainfall;Climate information;Beta distribution |
| Abstract |
In this study, we developed a hybrid forecasting model based on a four-parameter distribution which allows a simultaneous season-ahead forecasting for both seasonal rainfall and sub-daily rainfall in Han-River and Geum-River basins. The proposed model is mainly utilized a set of time-varying predictors and the associated model parameters were estimated within a Bayesian nonstationary rainfall frequency framework. The hybrid forecasting model was validated through an cross-validatory experiment using the recent rainfall events during 2014~2017 in both basins. The seasonal precipitation results showed a good agreement with the observations, which is about 86.3% and 98.9% in Han-River basin and Geum-River basin, respectively. Similarly, for the extreme rainfalls at sub-daily scale, the results showed a good correspondence between the observed and simulated rainfalls with a range of 65.9~99.7%. Therefore, it can be concluded that the proposed model could be used to better consider climate variability at multiple time scales. |