| Title |
Determination of the Optimal Return Period for River Design using Bayes Theory |
| Authors |
류재희(Ryu, Jae Hee) ; 이진영(Lee, Jin-Young) ; 김지은(Kim, Ji Eun) ; 김태웅(Kim, Tae-Woong) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2018.38.6.0793 |
| Keywords |
하천설계빈도;베이즈 이론;지방하천;홍수피해잠재능 River design frequency;Bayes theory;River;Potential flood damage |
| Abstract |
It is necessary to determine an optimal design frequency for establishing stable flood control against frequent flood disasters. Depending on the importance of river and regional characteristics, design return periods are suggested from at least 50 years up to 200 years for river design. However, due to the wide range of applications, it is not desirable to reflect the geographical and flood control characteristics of river. In this study, Bayes theory was applied to seven evaluation factors to determine the optimal design return period of rivers in Chungcheongnam-do; urbanization flooded area, watershed area, basin coefficient, slope, water system and stream order, range of backwater effect, abnormal rainfall occurrence frequency. The potential flood damage (PFD) capacity was estimated considering climate change and the appropriate design return period was determined by analyzing the capacity of each district. We compared the design return periods of 382 rivers in Chungcheongnam-do with the existing design return periods. The number of rivers that were upgraded from the existing return period were 65, which have relatively large flooding areas and have large PFDs. Whereas, the number of rivers that were downgraded were 169. |