| Title |
Assessment of Hydrologic Risk of Extreme Drought According to RCP Climate Change Scenarios Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis |
| Authors |
박지연(Park, Ji Yeon) ; 김지은(Kim, Ji Eun) ; 이주헌(Lee, Joo-Heon) ; 김태웅(Kim, Tae-Woong) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2019.39.5.0561 |
| Keywords |
이변량 가뭄 빈도해석;기후변화;극한가뭄;수문학적 위험도 Bivariate drought frequency analysis;Climate change;Extreme drought;Hydrologic risk |
| Abstract |
Recently, Korea has suffered from severe droughts due to climate change. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the change of drought risk to develop appropriate drought mitigation measures. In this study, we investigated the changes of hydrologic risk of extreme drought using the current observed data and the projected data according to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. The bivariate frequency analysis was performed for the paired data of drought duration and severity extracted by the threshold level method and by eliminating pooling and minor droughts. Based on the hydrologic risk of extreme drought events Jeonbuk showed the highest risk and increased by 51 % than the past for the RCP 4.5 scenario, while Gangwon showed the highest risk and increased by 47 % than the past for the RCP 8.5 scenario. |