| Title |
A Study on Development of Bus Arrival Time Prediction Algorithm by using Travel Time Pattern Recognition |
| Authors |
장현호(Chang, Hyunho) ; 윤병조(Yoon, Byoungjo) ; 이진수(Lee, Jinsoo) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2019.39.6.0833 |
| Keywords |
패턴인식;버스도착정보;통행시간예측 BIS;Pattern recognition;Bus arrival information;Travel time prediction |
| Abstract |
Bus Information System (BIS) collects information related to the operation of buses and provides information to users through predictive algorithms. Method of predicting through recent information in same section reflects the traffic situation of the section, but cannot reflect the characteristics of the target line. The method of predicting the historical data at the same time zone is limited in forecasting peak time with high volatility of traffic flow. Therefore, we developed a pattern recognition bus arrival time prediction algorithm which could be overcome previous limitation. This method recognize the traffic pattern of target flow and select the most similar past traffic pattern. The results of this study were compared with the BIS arrival forecast information history of Seoul. RMSE of travel time between estimated and observed was approximately 35 seconds (40 seconds in BIS) at the off-peak time and 40 seconds (60 seconds in BIS) at the peak time. This means that there is data that can represent the current traffic situation in other time zones except for the same past time zone. |