| Title |
Impact Assessment between Heatwave and Drought Based on PLS-SEM |
| Authors |
유지영(Yoo, Jiyoung) ; 김장경(Kim, Jang-Gyeong) ; 한정우(Han, Jeongwoo) ; 김태웅(Kim, Tae-Woong) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2021.41.2.0113 |
| Keywords |
가뭄;폭염;구조방정식모형;인과 관계;영향평가 Drought;Heatwave;Structural equation modeling;Causal relationship;Impact assessment |
| Abstract |
The occurrence mechanisms of heatwave have been conventionally studied at a synoptic scale. However, the implications of precedent droughts on the following up heatwave occurrences have not been elucidated and are important to address the complex causal mechanisms of heatwaves. Therefore, this study evaluated the causality and implication of the seasonally antecedent droughts to summer heatwaves that occurred for 46 years since 1974 using partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The resulting contribution of winter (spring and summer) droughts to summer heatwaves for Seoul-Gyeonggi, Gangwon, and Chungcheong provinces were 37 % (29 % and 22 %), 21 % (18 % and 29 %), and 17 % (8 % and 38 %), respectively. This is due to the regional variability of seasonal drought impacts. Furthermore, Gangwon and Chungcheong provinces, which have a higher level of impacts of summer droughts to summer heatwaves, are more likely to be exposed to the compound drought-heatwave damages compared to Seoul-Gyeonggi province, which has relatively a low-level impact of summer drought. |