| Title |
Evaluating Impact Factors of Forest Fire Occurrences in Gangwon Province Using PLS-SEM: A Focus on Drought and Meteorological Factors |
| Authors |
유지영(Yoo, Jiyoung) ; 한정우(Han, Jeongwoo) ; 김동욱(Kim, Dongwook) ; 김태웅(Kim, Tae-Woong) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2021.41.3.0209 |
| Keywords |
가뭄; 구조방정식모형; 기상학적 요인; 산불; 인과 관계 "Drought; Structural equation modeling; Meteorological factor; Forest fire; Causal relationship |
| Abstract |
Although forest fires are more often triggered by artificial causes than by natural causes, the combustion conditions that spread forest fire damage over a large area are affected by natural phenomena. Therefore, using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), which can analyze the dependent and causal relationships between various factors, this study evaluated the causal relationships and relative influences between forest fire, weather, and drought, taking Gangwon Province as our sample region. The results indicated that the impact of drought on forest fires was 27 % and that of the weather was 38 %. In addition, forest fires in spring accounted for about 60 % of total forest fires. This indicatesthat along with meteorological factors, the autumn and winter droughts in the previous year affected forest fires. In assessing the risk of forest fires, if severe meteorological droughts occur in autumn and winter, the probability of forest fires may increase in the spring of the following year. |