| Title |
Analysis of Drought Hotspot Areas Using Local Indicators of Spatial Association in the Nakdong River Basin |
| Authors |
손호준(Son, Ho-Jun) ; 변성호(Byun, Sung Ho) ; 박경운(Park, Kyung Woon) ; 김지은(Kim, Ji Eun) ; 김태웅(Kim, Tae-Woong) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2023.43.2.0175 |
| Keywords |
기후변화 시나리오; 가뭄 핫스팟; 수정표준강수지수; 공간연관성지표 Climate change scenario; Drought hot spot; Modified standardized precipitation index; Spatial association indicator |
| Abstract |
As drought risk increases due to climate change, various research works are underway around the world to respond to drought so as to minimize drought damage. In particular, in recent years, many studies are focused on analyzing regional patterns of drought in a comprehensive manner, however there is still insufficient to quantitatively identify drought-risk areas in a large river basin considering climate change in Korea. In this study, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Modified Standardized Precipitation Index (M_SPI) as representative meteorological drought index, and performed spatial autocorrelation analysis to identify the drought hotspot region under climate change scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The SPI was calculated by estimating parameters for each observation station within the study area, whereas the M_SPI was calculated by estimating parameters for the entire study area. It is more reasonable to use the M_SPI for assessing meteorological drought from an overall perspective within the study area. When the M_SPI was used, long-term droughts showed drought hotspot areas clearly larger than short-term droughts. In addition, the drought hotspot area moved from the center of the Nakdong River basin to the Seomjin River basin over time. Especially, the moving patterns of the short-term/long-term drought were apparent under the RCP 4.5, whereas the moving patterns of the long-term drought were distinct under the RCP 8.5 scenarios. |