| Title |
Evaluation of Future Hydrologic Risk of Drought in Nakdong River Basin Using Bayesian Classification-Based Composite Drought Index |
| Authors |
김혁(Kim, Hyeok) ; 김지은(Kim, Ji Eun) ; 김지영(Kim, Jiyoung) ; 유지영(Yoo, Jiyoung) ; 김태웅(Kim, Tae-Woong) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2023.43.3.0309 |
| Keywords |
베이지안 분류; 기후변화; 통합가뭄지수; 이변량 가뭄빈도분석; 수문학적 위험도 Dynamic naive Bayesian classifier; Climate change; Composite drought index; Bivariate frequency analysis; Hydrologic risk |
| Abstract |
Recently, the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters have increased due to climate change. In South Korea, there are regional differences in vulnerability and response capability to cope with climate change because of regional climate characteristics. In particular, drought results from various factors and is linked to extensive meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural impacts. Therefore, in order to effectively cope with drought, it is necessary to use a composite drought index that can take into account various factors, and to evaluate future droughts comprehensively considering climate change. This study evaluated hydrologic risk() of future drought in the Nakdong River basin based on the Dynamic Naive Bayesian Classification (DNBC)-based composite drought index, which was calculated by applying Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), Evaporate Stress Index (ESI) and Water Supply Capacity Index (WSCI) to the DNBC. The indices used in the DNBC were calculated using observation data and climate scenario data. A bivariate frequency analysis was performed for the severity and duration of the composite drought. Then using the estimated bivariate return periods, hydrologic risks of drought were calculated for observation and future periods. The overall results indicated that there were the highest risks during the future period (2021-2040) (=0.572), and Miryang River (#2021) had the highest risk (=0.940) on average. The hydrologic risk of the Nakdong River basin will increase highly in the near future (2021-2040). During the far future (2041-2099), the hydrologic risk decreased in the northern basins, and increased in the southern basins. |