| Title |
Construction of a Short-term Time-series Prediction Model for Analysis of Return Flow of Residential Water |
| Authors |
이승연(Lee, Seungyeon) ; 이상은(Lee, Sangeun) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2023.43.6.0763 |
| Keywords |
물순환시스템; 회귀수량; ARIMA 모형; 전이함수모형 Water-cycle system; Return flow; ARIMA model; TFM |
| Abstract |
The water availability in a river is related to the return flow of residential water. However it is still difficult to determine the exact return flow. In this study, the residential water-cycle system is defined as a process consisting of water inflow, water transfer and water outflow. The study area is Hampyeong-gun, Jeollanam-do, and is set as a single inflow to a single outflow through the water-cycle system after classification of complete and incomplete measurement points. The time-series prediction models(ARIMA model and TFM) are established with daily inflow and outflow data for 6 years. Inflow and outflow are predicted by dividing into training and test periods. As a result, both models show the feasibility of short-term prediction by deriving stable residuals and securing statistical significance, implementing the preliminary form of the water-cycle system. As a further study, it is suggested to predict the actual return flow of the target basin and efficient water operation by adding input factors and selecting the optimal model. |