| Title |
Study on Risk Priority for TBM Tunnel Collapse based on Bayes Theorem through Case Study |
| Authors |
권기범(Kwon, Kibeom) ; 강민규(Kang, Minkyu) ; 황병현(Hwang, Byeonghyun) ; 최항석(Choi, Hangseok) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2023.43.6.0785 |
| Keywords |
TBM; 터널; 리스크; 붕괴; 사례조사; 베이즈 정리 TBM; Tunnel; Risk; Collapse; Case study; Bayes theorem |
| Abstract |
Risk management is essential for preventing accidents arising from uncertainties in TBM tunnel projects, especially concerning managing the risk of TBM tunnel collapse, which can cause extensive damage from the tunnel face to the ground surface. In addition, prioritizing risks is necessary to allocate resources efficiently within time and cost constraints. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a TBM risk database through case studies of TBM accidents and determine a risk priority for TBM tunnel collapse using the Bayes theorem. The database consisted of 87 cases, dealing with three accidents and five geological sources. Applying the Bayes theorem to the database, it was found that fault zones and weak ground significantly increased the probability of tunnel collapse, while the other sources showed low correlations with collapse. Therefore, the risk priority for TBM tunnel collapse, considering geological sources, is as follows: 1) Fault zone, 2) Weak ground, 3) Mixed ground, 4) High in-situ stress, and 5) Expansive ground. In practice, the derived risk priority can serve as a valuable reference for risk management, enhancing the safety and efficiency of TBM construction. It provides guidance for developing appropriate countermeasure plans and allocating resources effectively to mitigate the risk of TBM tunnel collapse. |