| Title |
Uncertainty Analysis for Long - Term Acidification of Lakes in Northeastern U . S . A . |
| Abstract |
First order second moment analysis has been applied to two lakes in the Adirondack Park, New York, coupled with the ETD model to assess the response of the lakes to acid deposition. Because the model is calibrated with Only, two years of field data and used to simulate a 50 year period, the uncertainty in the lake alkalinity prediction is relatively large. The results indicate that, when a best estimate of parameter uncertainty is used, the uncertainty in the long range predictions of lake alkalinity increase dramatically. If input parameter uncertainty were included in the simulations, the uncertainty of the lake alkalinity long-term predictions would be increased even more. |