| Title |
Comparison of Monte Carlo Simulation and First Order Error Analysis for the Uncertainty Analysis of Natural Stream |
| Authors |
박석순 ; 최은주 ( Seok Soon Park ; Eun Ju Choi ) |
| Abstract |
Uncertainty analysis was performed for the Jisachun, a tributary of the Nakdong river, using QUAL2E-UNCAS model. Field data were obtained from two synoptic sampling surveys performed during February and March, 1991, and utilized for model calibration and verification. Monte Carlo simulation and First Order Error Analysis were conducted on the validated Jisachun model and the results were compared at five mainstream locations. The modeled water, quality parameters included Dissolved Oxygen, Biochemical Oxygen Demand, Nitrogen and Phosphorus series, and Total Suspended Solids, but selected parameters were displayed in this paper. Monte Carlo Simulation and First Order Error Analysis produced almost same values of standard deviation of the predicted water qualities in Jisachun. Monte Carlo simulation required much longer computer time than First Order Error Analysis but could produce frequency distributions of all predicted water qualities. The types and the relative significances of stream reactions which affected a specific water quality were determined from the First Order Error Analysis. |