| Title |
Estimation of ESP Probability considering Weather Outlook |
| Authors |
안정민 ( Jung Min Ahn ) ; 이상진 ( Sang Jin Lee ) ; 김정곤 ( Jeong Kon Kim ) ; 김주철 ( Joo Cheol Kim ) ; 맹승진 ( Seung Jin Maeng ) ; 우동현 ( Dong Hyeon Woo ) |
| Keywords |
Climate outlook; ESP; Runoff; Runoff forecast; SSARR |
| Abstract |
The objective of this study was to develop a model for predicting long-term runoff in a basin using the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) technique and review its reliability. To achieve the objective, this study improved not only the ESP technique based on the ensemble scenario analysis of historical rainfall data but also conventional ESP techniques used in conjunction with qualitative climate forecasting information, and analyzed and assessed their improvement effects. The model was applied to the Geum River basin. To undertake runoff forecasting, this study tried three cases (case 1: Climate Outlook+ESP, case 2: ESP probability through monthly measured discharge, case 3: Season ESP probability of case 2) according to techniques used to calculate ESP probabilities. As a result, the mean absolute error of runoff forecasts for case 1 proposed by this study was calculated as 295.8 MCM. This suggests that case 1 showed higher reliability in runoff forecasting than case 2 (324 MCM) and case 3 (473.1 MCM). In a discrepancy-ratio accuracy analysis, the Climate Outlook +ESP technique displayed 50.0%. This suggests that runoff forecasting using the Climate Outlook +ESP technique with the lowest absolute error was more reliable than other two cases. |