| Title |
Enhancement of Land Load Estimation Method in TMDLs for Considering of Climate Change Scenarios |
| Authors |
류지철 ( Ji Chul Ryu ) ; 박윤식 ( Yoon Sik Park ) ; 한미덕 ( Mi Deok Han ) ; 안기홍 ( Ki Hong Ahn ) ; 금동혁 ( Dong Hyuk Kum ) ; 임경재 ( Kyoung Jae Lim ) ; 박배경 ( Bae Kyung Park ) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.15681/KSWE.2014.30.2.212 |
| Keywords |
CF; Climate change; JinwiA; Land pollutant load; QM; TMDLs |
| Abstract |
In this study, a land pollutant load calculation method in TMDLs was improved to consider climate change scenarios. In order to evaluate the new method, future change in rainfall patterns was predicted by using SRES A1B climate change scenarios and then post-processing methods such as change factor (CF) and quantile mapping (QM) were applied to correct the bias between the predicted and the observed rainfall patterns. Also, future land pollutant loads were estimated by using both the bias corrected rainfall patterns and the enhanced method. For the results of bias correction, both methods (CF and QM) predicted the temporal trend of the past rainfall patterns and QM method showed future daily average precipitation in the range of 1.1~7.5 mm and CF showed it in the range of 1.3~6.8 mm from 2014 to 2100. Also, in the result of the estimation of future land pollutant loads using the enhanced method (2020, 2040, 2100), TN loads were in the range of 4316.6~6138.6 kg/day and TP loads were in the range of 457.0~716.5 kg/day. However, each result of TN and TP loads in 2020, 2040, 2100 was the same with the original method. The enhanced method in this study will be useful to predict land pollutant loads under the influence of climate change because it can reflect future change in rainfall patterns. Also, it is expected that the results of this study are used as a base data of TMDLs in case of applying for climate change scenarios. |