| Keywords |
Metropolitan region growth model ; Markovian-cellular automata ; Greenbelt |
| Abstract |
This study suggests an application of the proposed conceptual model to forecast urban growth in Seoul metropolitan region and studies how the Seoul metropolitan area will be changed or transformed under given 3 scenarios using the model. The Seoul metropolitan region growth model consists of 3 modules; socio-economic forecasting module, spatial urban growth forecasting module and index allocating module. First, socio-economic index forecasting module estimates population, housing and employment. Secondly, spatial urban growth forecasting module simulates urban growth using markovian-cellular automata model. Third, index allocating module distribute the population, housing and employment spatially. In the end the map which accommodates the demand and supply side of urban development was made. This study used 3 scenarios; scenario #1 has no limitation in development and 20% eased altitude and elevation in the metropolitan area; #2 has the same limitation in development; 3# has a part of regions or areas with no limitation. This study proved that the results are similar to those of humans' forecast and that it can be applied to forecast the growth in cities or regions. To reflect more actuality, this study introduces and applies socio-economic indexes onto the forecast results including population, area of houses and employees. This study is significant in that it forecasted indexes through multi-dimensional approaches and applied the indexes onto the Cellular Automata, and thus suggested a method to apply urban growth forecasting model on Seoul metropolitan area. |