| Title |
A Bayesian GLM Model Based Regional Frequency Analysis Using Scaling Properties of Extreme Rainfalls |
| Authors |
김진영(Kim, Jin-Young) ; 권현한(Kwon, Hyun-Han) ; 이병석(Lee, Byung-Suk) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2017.37.1.0029 |
| Keywords |
IDF 곡선;Scaling 특성;불확실성 IDF curve;Bayesian GLM;Scaling property;Uncertainty |
| Abstract |
Design rainfalls are one of the most important hydrologic data for river management, hydraulic structure design and risk analysis. The design rainfalls are first estimated by a point frequency analysis and the IDF (intensity-duration-frequency) curve is then constructed by a nonlinear regression to either interpolate or extrapolate the design rainfalls for other durations which are not used in the frequency analysis. It has been widely recognised that the more reliable approaches are required to better account for uncertainties associated with the model parameters under circumstances where limited hydrologic data are available for the watershed of interest. For these reasons, this study developed a hierarchical Bayesian based GLM (generalized linear model) for a regional frequency analysis in conjunction with a scaling function of the parameters in probability distribution. The proposed model provided a reliable estimation of a set of parameters for each individual station, as well as offered a regional estimate of the parameters, which allow us to have a regional IDF curve. Overall, we expected the proposed model can be used for different aspects of water resources planning at various stages and in addition for the ungaged basin. |