| Title |
Drought Risk Analysis in Seoul Using Cheugugi and Climate Change Scenario Based Rainfall Data |
| Authors |
김지은(Kim, Ji Eun) ; 유지수(Yu, Ji Soo) ; 이주헌(Lee, Joo-Heon) ; 김태웅(Kim, Tae-Woong) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2018.38.3.0387 |
| Keywords |
기후변화;위험도 분석;이변량 빈도해석;측우기 Bivariate drought frequency analysis;Cheugugi;Climate change;Risk analysis |
| Abstract |
Considering the effect of climate change, a quantitative analysis of extreme drought is needed to reduce the damage from extreme droughts. Therefore, in this study, a quantitative risk analysis of extreme drought was conducted. The threshold level method was applied to define a drought event using Cheugugi rainfall data in past, gauged rainfall data in present, and climate change scenario rainfall data in future. A bivariate drought frequency analysis was performed using the copula function to simultaneously consider two major drought characteristics such as duration and severity. Based on the bivariate drought frequency curves, the risks for the past, present and future were calculated and the risks for future extreme drought were analyzed comparing with the past and present. As a result, the mean drought duration of the future was shorter than that of past and present, however, the mean drought severity was much larger. Therefore short term and severe droughts were expected to occur in the future. In addition, the analysis of the maximum drought risk indicated that the future maximum drought risk was 1.39~1.94 times and 1.33~1.81 times higher than the past and present. Finally, the risk of extreme drought over past and present maximum drought in the future was very high, ranging from 0.989 to 1.0, and the occurrence probability of extreme drought was high in the future. |