| Title |
Estimation of the Hydrological Design Frequency of Local Rivers Using Bayesian Inference and a Sensitivity Analysis of Evaluation Factors |
| Authors |
유재희(Ryu, Jae Hee) ; 김지은(Kim, Ji Eun) ; 이진영(Lee, Jin-Young) ; 박경운(Park, Kyung-Woon) ; 김태웅(Kim, Tae-Woong) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2022.42.5.0617 |
| Keywords |
베이지안 추론; 민감도 분석; 하천설계빈도; 평가인자; 가중치 |
| Abstract |
In Korea, annual precipitation and its variability have gradually increased since modern meteorological observations began, and the risk of disasters has also been increasing due to significant regional variations and recent abnormal climate conditions. Given that damage from storms and floods mainly occurs around rivers, it is crucial to determine the appropriate design frequency for river-related projects. This study examined existing design practices used to determine hydrological design frequencies and suggested a new method to determine appropriate design frequencies. The study collected available data pertaining to seven evaluation factors, specifically the basin areas, shape parameters, channel slopes, stream orders, backwater effect reaches, extreme rainfall frequencies, and urbanized flood inundation areasfor 413 local rivers in Chungcheongnam-do in Korea. The estimated weights for areas of extreme rainfall frequencies and urbanized flood inundation were found to be 18, having a great effect on determining the design frequency. Compared with the established design frequency in previous government reports, the estimated design frequency increased for 255 rivers anddecreased for 158 rivers |