Mobile QR Code QR CODE : Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers

  1. ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ์žฌ๋‚œ์•ˆ์ „์—ฐ๊ตฌ์› ์žฌ๋‚œ์ •๋ณด์—ฐ๊ตฌ์‹ค ์‹œ์„ค์—ฐ๊ตฌ์‚ฌ (Disaster Information Research Division, National Disaster Management Research Institute)
  2. ํ–‰์ •์•ˆ์ „๋ถ€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ฏผ๋ฐฉ์œ„์žฌ๋‚œ์•ˆ์ „๊ต์œก์› ๊ต์ˆ˜ (National Civil Defense and Disaster Management Training Institute, Ministry of the Interior and Safety)
  3. ๊ฒฝ๋ถ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ํ† ๋ชฉ๊ณตํ•™๊ณผ ๊ต์ˆ˜ (Kyungpook National University)


๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ, GeoANFIS, ๋ฒŒ์น™์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์œ ์ „์ž์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜, ์šด์˜๋ฃฐ
Drainage pump station, GeoANFIS, Penalty type of genetic algorithm, Operation rule

  • 1. ์„œ ๋ก 

  • 2. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•

  •   2.1 ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•

  •   2.2 ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜

  •   2.3 ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์šด์˜๋ชจํ˜•(Geo-ANFIS)

  • 3. ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ ์šฉ

  •   3.1 ๋Œ€์ƒ์œ ์—ญ

  •   3.2 ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„ ์˜ˆ์ธก

  •   3.2.1 ๊ต์ฐจ ๋ฐ ์ž๊ธฐ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„ ๋ถ„์„

  •   3.2.2 ์ตœ์  ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ์˜ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ

  •   3.3 Geo-ANFIS ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ ์šฉ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ

  •   3.4 ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์˜ ์ ์šฉ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ

  •   3.5 ๋น„๊ต ๋ฐ ๋ถ„์„

  • 4. ๊ฒฐ ๋ก 

1. ์„œ ๋ก 

๋„์‹œํ™์ˆ˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋Œ€์ฑ…์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์šฐ์„ , ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๋Œ€์ฑ…์œผ๋กœ์„œ๋Š” ํ•˜์ˆ˜๊ด€๊ฑฐ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์ฆ๋Œ€ ๋ฐ ์„ค๊ณ„๋นˆ๋„ ์ƒํ–ฅ, ๋…ธ๋ฉด์ˆ˜์˜ ์ €์ง€๋Œ€ ์œ ์ž… ์ฐจ๋‹จ ๋ฐ ์šฐ์ˆ˜์ง‘์ˆ˜๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ์ฆ๋Œ€, ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณต๊ฐ„ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋Œ€์‘ ๋ฐ ๋ฐฉ์ง€์‹œ์„ค ๊ตฌ์ถ• ๋“ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๋Œ€์ฑ…์œผ๋กœ์„œ๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ํšจ์œจ์  ์šด์˜, ๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ฐ ์‚ฌํšŒ๊ตฌ์กฐ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์นจ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€์ค‘์š”์ธ์˜ ์ œ๊ฑฐ์™€ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์นจ์ˆ˜์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ฐ ์œ„ํ—˜๋„ ๋ถ„์„์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ์ง€์›, ๊ด€๋ จ ์ฃผ์ฒด ๋ฐ ๋ฒ•์ฒด๊ณ„์˜ ํ†ตํ•ฉ๊ด€๋ฆฌ, ํ† ์ง€์ด์šฉ๊ณ„ํš ๋ฐ ํ™์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์ œ ์„ค์ •, ๊ณ ํ˜• ํ๊ธฐ๋ฌผ ๋ฐ ํ์ˆ˜ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ, ํ™์ˆ˜ ๋ณดํ—˜, ์žฌ๋‚œ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ ๊ณ„ํš, ์กฐ๊ธฐ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๋“ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋„์‹œ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ข…ํ•ฉ์ ์ธ ์ฐจ์›์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์ˆ˜ํ–‰๋œ ๋ฐ”๊ฐ€ ์—†๊ณ , ์นจ์ˆ˜์— ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•œ ์ง€๋ฐฉ์ž์น˜๋‹จ์ฒด๋ณ„, ๋„์‹œ์œ ํ˜•๋ณ„ ํ†ตํ•ฉ๋งˆ์Šคํ„ฐ ํ”Œ๋žœ์˜ ์ž‘์„ฑ์ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง€์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์‹ค์ •์ด๋ฉฐ ๋Œ€์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๋Œ€์ฑ…์— ์˜์กดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์‹ค์ •์ด๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ค๋ณด๋‹ˆ ์ •์ž‘ ํŽŒํ”„์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์ด ๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์„ค๊ณ„๋˜์–ด ๋ฐฉ์น˜๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์‹œ์„ค์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๊ณ  ์ด๋กœ์ธํ•ด 1,957์–ต์ด ๋‚ญ๋น„๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋ฐ˜ํฌ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์€ ์„ค๊ณ„์™€ ์‹œ๊ณต์˜ ๋ถ€์ ์ ˆ์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ 40์–ต์ด ๊ณผ๋‹คํˆฌ์ž…๋˜๋Š” ๋“ฑ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ ์ด ์ง€๋‚œ 2012๋…„ ๊ตญ์ •๊ฐ์‚ฌ์—์„œ ์ง€์ ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค.

์ด๋Š” ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜์œ„ ๋ฐ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์˜ ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์˜ ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์ „๊ฒฝํ—˜์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ์–ต์ œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ—˜์ ์ธ ์šด์˜์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ  ์žฌ๋‚œ ๋Œ€๋น„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ณด์ˆ˜์ ์ธ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์„ค๊ณ„์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์ด ๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜์—ˆ์Œ์„ ๋ฐ˜์ฆํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์—ฌ ์ฒจ๋‘์œ ๋Ÿ‰์— ๋ฏธ๋ฆฌ ๋Œ€์ฒ˜ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ๋Œ€์ƒ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„๋™์•ˆ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ์ €ํ•˜์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์žฆ์€ ๊ฐ€๋™๊ณผ ์ •์ง€์ƒํƒœ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์„ ํ”ผํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๋น„์˜ ์ €๊ฐํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋™์‹œ์— ๊ฐ€์ ธ์˜ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋„์‹œํ™์ˆ˜ ๋น„๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๋Œ€์ฑ…์„ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์šด์˜์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค.

์ˆ˜์ž์›์˜ ๊ณ„ํš ๋ฐ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์— ์žˆ์–ด์„œ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ๋ถ„์„์€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์ตœ์ ํ™” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๊ณผ ๋ชจ์˜์‹คํ—˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜์ž์› ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ตœ๊ทผ์— ์ตœ์ ํ™” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง€๋ฉด์„œ ๋„๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(Nien et al., 2013). ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ํ™์ˆ˜๋ฐฉ์–ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋Œ ์šด์˜์—๋Š” ์ตœ์ ํ™” ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์„ ์ ์šฉ์‹œํ‚จ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋งŽ์ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜(Winsor, 1973; Unver and Mays, 1990; Niewiadomska โ€“Szynkiewicz et al., 1996; Chang and Chen, 1998; Needham et al., 2000; Hsu and Wei, 2007; Chang, 2008; Valeriano et al., 2010; Kumar et al., 2010), ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์šด์˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋ชจ์˜์‹คํ—˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์ฃผ๋ฅผ ์ด๋ฃจ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. Chang et al. (2008)์€ ๋Œ€๋งŒ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ Yu-Chang ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์œ ์—ญ ๋‚ด ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰, ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„, ๊ฒŒ์ดํŠธ์˜ ๊ฐœํ์—ฌ๋ถ€ ๋ฐ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์šด์˜๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์นจ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐฉ์ง€๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์— ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋ฐฉํ–ฅ ์ „ํŒŒ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€(Counterpropagation Fuzzy-Neural Network, CFNN)๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Chiang et al. (2011)์€ 20๋ถ„ ๊ฐ„๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์—์„œ ๊ฐœํ๋œ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ANFIS์™€ CFNN ๋‘ ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Nien et al. (2013)์€ ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ์ž๋ฃŒ์™€ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ANFIS-His๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋“ค๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 1986๋…„ Glover์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ œ์•ˆ๋œ ์ตœ์ ํ™” ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์ธ Tabu search๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ANFIS-Opt๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๊ตญ๋‚ด์—์„œ๋Š” Kim et al. (2004)์€ 6๊ฐœ์˜ ํผ์ง€์ œ์–ด๊ทœ์น™ ์ด์™ธ์— Petri Net Diagram (Luciano and Mauro, 2001)์„ ์ด์šฉํ•œ ํŽŒํ”„ ์กฐ์ž‘๋ฒ•๊ณผ ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€ ์œ ์ž…์ˆ˜๋ฌธ๊ณก์„ ์˜ ์ƒ์Šน๋ถ€์—์„œ์˜ ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰์€ ๋ณด์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„๋Œ€์ˆ˜๋กœ ์ „๋Ÿ‰๋ฐฐ์ œ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ ํŽŒํ”„๋ฅผ ์กฐ์ž‘ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด ์ค‘ ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์šฐ์ˆ˜ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Lee et al. (2007)์€ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์„ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ์šด์˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์„ ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, Joo et al. (2010)์€ ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์šด์˜์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ํ™•๋ฅ ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์นจ์ˆ˜์ €๊ฐํšจ๊ณผ์™€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์„ฑ๋ถ„์„์„ ์‹ค์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Song et al. (2016)์€ ํŽŒํ”„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€๋™ ๋ฐ ๋‚ด๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜์‹œ์„ค ๊ฒฝ๊ณ„ ์žฌ์„ค์ •์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์นจ์ˆ˜์ €๊ฐํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€๋ฆผ3 ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์„ ํ–‰ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์šด์˜ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋งŒ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์€ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ์ถ”์ •์— ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์šด์˜์— ์žˆ์–ด ๊ฐ€๋™์‹œ์ž‘์‹œ์ ๊ณผ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์–‘์ˆ˜์œจ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”์กฐ์ ˆ์ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ง์ ‘ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ํ† ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํ–ฅํ›„ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ธก๋œ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„์™€ ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์กฐ๊ฑด ๋“ฑ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์—ฌ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ํ† ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ฆ‰๊ฐ์ ์ธ ๋Œ€์ฒ˜์— ์œ ๋ฆฌํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค. ๋ฟ๋งŒ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋งŒ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ํ™•์žฅ์„ฑ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ์œ ์ถœ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ๋“ฑ์ด ๋ฐ˜์˜๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์„ ์šด์˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ฐ•์šฐ-ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„-ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฐ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ์šด์˜์ƒ์˜ ๋ชฉ์ ์„ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์šด์˜๋ฃฐ์„ ๋งˆํฌ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ ์šฉ์„ฑ์„ ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

2. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•

2.1 ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์ตœ์ ์šด์˜์„ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹œยท๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ๋‰ด๋กœ- ํผ์ง€ ๋ชจํ˜•(Geo-ANFIS)์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Geo-ANFIS๋ชจํ˜•์€ ์ „์ฒด ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋‚ด ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋Š” ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์šด์˜์— ์žˆ์–ด ์ˆ˜๋ฌธยท๊ธฐ์ƒํ•™์  ์ž๋ฃŒ ๋ฐ ์ง€ํ˜•ํ•™์  ์ž๋ฃŒ์™€์˜ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ๊ณผ ๋น„์„ ํ˜•์„ฑ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ Geo-ANFIS๋ชจํ˜•์€ ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์ž๋ฃŒ์™€ ์‹ค์ œ ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์šด์˜๊ธฐ๋ก ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์ƒ๋ฅ˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์˜ ์œ ์—ญ๋ฉด์ , ํ‰๊ท ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ ๋ฐ ๋ถˆํˆฌ์ˆ˜์œจ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ด ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์ , ์ง€ํ˜•๊ณต๊ฐ„ํ•™์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ฆ‰, Geo-ANFIS๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ๊ฐ•์šฐ์˜ ์‹œ๊ณ„์—ด ์ž๋ฃŒ์™€ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์˜ ์ง€ํ˜•ํ•™์  ํŠน์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, Fig. 1๋Š” ์ œ์•ˆํ•œ Geo-ANFIS๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๋ชจ์‹๋„์ด๋‹ค.

Fig. 1.

Schematic of Proposed Geo-ANFIS Model

Figure_KSCE_37_06_01_F1.jpg

Fig. 1์˜ Input matrix์—์„œ PICEBF9.gif๋Š” ์ผ๋ จ์˜ ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๊ณ  PICEC09.gif, PICEC0A.gif๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ฐ ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜๊ณผ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ง€์ฒด์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ธ๋‹ค. PICEC1B.gif, PICEC4B.gif ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  PICEC5C.gif๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ฐ ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ PICEC6C.gif์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์œ ์—ญ๋ฉด์ , ํ‰๊ท  ์œ ์—ญ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ, ๋ถˆํˆฌ์ˆ˜์œจ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ธ๋‹ค. ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์  ์ง€ํ˜•ํ•™์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋“ค์„ ์„ ์ •ํ•œ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๊ฐ•์šฐ-์œ ์ถœ์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ฌธํ•™์  ํ˜„์ƒ์„ ๊ฐœ๋…์  ํ˜น์€ ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์  ๋ชจํ˜•์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•  ๋•Œ ์ฃผ๋กœ ์ด ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋“ค์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์œ ์—ญ์—์„œ์˜ ๊ฐ•์šฐ-์œ ์ถœ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ๋Š” ์œ ์—ญ๋ฉด์ , ์œ ์—ญ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  CN๊ฐ’์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋‚˜(Beven and Kirby, 1979; Sarangi et al., 2005; Melesse et al., 2003), ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋„์‹œ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ถ„์„์ด๋ฏ€๋กœ CN๊ฐ’ ๋Œ€์‹ ์— ๋ถˆํˆฌ์ˆ˜์œจ์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ์„œ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์™€ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์šด์˜์กฐ์ž‘์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ธฐ๋ก(์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€์˜ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„)๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์ธ ์ƒ๋ฅ˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์˜ ๋ฉด์ , ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ๋ฉด์ , ํ‰๊ท  ํ•˜์ˆ˜๊ด€๊ฑฐ ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ถˆํˆฌ์ˆ˜์œจ์„ ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Geo-ANFIS ๋ชจํ˜•์€ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋‚ด์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜ ์กฐ์ž‘์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋‚ด ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ํ˜„์žฌ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์™€ ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ๊ฐ•์šฐ ๋ฐ ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜ ์กฐ์ž‘, ๊ฐ ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์ƒ๋ฅ˜ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์ ํŠน์„ฑ์„ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋‚ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ชจ์˜์—์„œ Geo-ANFIS ๋ชจํ˜•์€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ANFIS ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ€์‹ ์— ์ ์šฉ๋˜๊ธฐ์— ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ์ ํ•ฉํ•œ ๋‹จ์ผ๋ชจํ˜•์œผ๋กœ ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ๊ฐ ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์ƒ๋ฅ˜์œ ์—ญ์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ๋‚ด์˜ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜ ์กฐ์ž‘์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ธฐ๋ก์ด ์กด์žฌํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋„ ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„ ์˜ˆ์ธก์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค(Fig. 1).

2.2 ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜

๋Œ€๋‹ค์ˆ˜ ์‹ค์ƒํ™œ ์ตœ์ ํ™” ๋ฌธ์ œ์—์„œ ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์ด ํฌํ•จ๋œ ์ตœ์ ํ™” ๋ฌธ์ œ์ด๋‹ค. ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์€ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ํฌํ•จํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์ตœ์ ํ•ด๋ฅผ ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋ณ€ํ˜•์‹œํ‚ฌ ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‰ฝ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค.

์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ œ์•ˆ๋œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋“ค์€ ๋Œ€๋žต rejecting ์ „๋žต, repairing ์ „๋žต, modifying genetic operator ์ „๋žต, penalizing ์ „๋žต์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค(Gen and Cheng, 1996). penalizing ์ „๋žต์„ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€๋Š” ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ’์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํƒ์ƒ‰๊ณผ์ •์ด ๋งค์šฐ ์–ด๋ ต๋‹ค. Glover and Harvey (1989)๋Š” ํƒ์ƒ‰์˜์—ญ ์ค‘ ๋น„ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ธ ์˜์—ญ์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹คํ–‰ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์˜์—ญ์œผ๋กœ์˜ ์ด๋™์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ์ตœ์ ํ•ด๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์„ ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ํ•ด๋ฅผ ์ฐพ๋Š”๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋น„ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ธ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ฑ…์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜๊ณ  ์ตœ์ ํ•ด ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ ํƒ์ƒ‰ํ•˜๋„๋ก ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ๋„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๋ฒŒ์น™ํ•จ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” penalizing ์ „๋žต์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๊ณ  ๋ฒŒ์น™ํ•จ์ˆ˜๋Š” Eq. (1)๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค.

PICEC7D.gif (1)

์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ, PICEC8D.gif์™€PICEC9E.gif๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ฐ ๋ถ€๋“ฑ์‹๊ณผ ๋“ฑ์‹ ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฒŒ์น™ ๊ฐ€์ค‘์š”์†Œ ์ด๋‹ค.

๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํŽŒํ”„ ์กฐ์ž‘์šด์˜์€ ๊ด€๋ จ ์šด์˜๋ฃฐ, ์ •์ฑ…๊ณผ ๋ฒ•๋ น์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์—ฐ์†์ ์ด๊ณ  ์ฆ‰๊ฐ์ ์ธ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ณผ์ •์ด๋ฉฐ ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์˜๊ธฐ๊ฐ„๋™์•ˆ ์ž‘๋™ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค.

์•ž์„œ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ•˜์˜€๋“ฏ์ด, ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„ ์ตœ์†Œํ™” ๋ฐ ์ž‘๋™ ํŽŒํ”„ ์ˆ˜์˜ ์ตœ์†Œํ™”์ธ ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ๋ชฉ์ ํ•จ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋‚ดํฌํ•˜๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์šด์˜ ์ตœ์ ํ™” ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

PICECBE.gif (2)

์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ, PICECCF.gif๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„, PICECD0.gif, PICECD1.gif๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ฐ ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ ๋†’์ด์™€ ๊ผญ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ๋†’์ด๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ธ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  PICECE2.gif์€ ์ž‘๋™ํ•œ ์ด ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  PICECE3.gif๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์ž‘๋™์‹œ๊ฐ„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ์ž‘๋™์‹œ๊ฐ„๊นŒ์ง€๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. PICECF3.gif๊ณผ PICED13.gif๋Š” ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„์™€ ์ž‘๋™ ๋ฐ ์ค‘์ง€๋œ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ค‘๊ณ„์ˆ˜์ด๋ฉฐ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ˆ˜์œ„์— ๋น„์ค‘์„ ๋” ๋‘์–ด PICED14.gif์€ 0.7, PICED15.gif๋Š” 0.3์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์€ ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ด Hard, Soft, Boundary๋กœ ๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, Hard๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ์ค€์ˆ˜ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด, Soft๋Š” ์–ด๋Š ์ •๋„์˜ ์œ„๋ฐฐ๋Š” ํ—ˆ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด, Boundary๋Š” ํƒ์ƒ‰์˜์—ญ์„ ์ œํ•œ์‹œ์ผœ์ฃผ๋Š” ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค.

โ‘  Hard: ๊ฐ ์šด์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜์œ„๋Š” ๋‹ค์Œ ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ๋งŒ์กฑํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค.

PICED26.gif,PICED27.gif (3)

โ‘ก Soft: ๊ฐ•์šฐ์˜ ํŒจํ„ด์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ(ํ˜น์€ ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€), ํŽŒํ”„์— ์˜ํ•œ ํ† ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ•์šฐ์˜ ํŒจํ„ด์ด ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ(ํ˜น์€ ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ์†Œ), ํŽŒํ”„์— ์˜ํ•œ ํ† ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ฐ์†Œ์‹œํ‚จ๋‹ค.

PICED38.gif,PICED39.gifor

PICED49.gif,PICED5A.gif (4)

โ‘ข Boundary: ์ž‘๋™ ์ค‘์ธ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์ด ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉฐ ์–‘์ˆ˜์ด๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์œ ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค.

PICED5B.gif,PICED6C.gif (5)

๊ฐ ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด ์œ ํ˜•์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋ฒŒ์น™(Penalty)์œ ํ˜•์ด ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์ง„๋‹ค. Hard์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์€ ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ์ค€์ˆ˜ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฏ€๋กœ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์—์„œ ์ƒ์กดํ™•๋ฅ ์„ 0 ํ˜น์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ž‘์€ ๊ฐ’์œผ๋กœ ๋‘๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋งค์šฐ ์‹ฌํ•œ ๋ฒŒ์น™์„ ๋ถ€๊ณผํ•œ๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ Hard ์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฒŒ์น™์€ ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค.

Soft์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์€ ์–ด๋Š ์ •๋„์˜ ์œ„๋ฐฐ๋Š” ํ—ˆ์šฉํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ฐ•์šฐ๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์™€ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฒŒ์น™์„ ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ๋‹ค.

PICED6D.gif (6)

PICED8D.gif (7)

๋ฒŒ์น™์œ ํ˜• ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์˜ Soft์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ๊ฐ์†Œ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋ฒŒ์น™ํ•จ์ˆ˜ ๊ฐ’์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰์˜ ์ž๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ์š”๊ตฌ๋œ๋‹ค. ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ €์ˆ˜์œ„-์œ ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ด€๊ณ„๊ณก์„ (H-S)์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์ €๋ฅ˜๋ฐฉ์ •์‹์„ ์ ์šฉํ•œ๋‹ค.

PICED8E.gif (8)

PICED9E.gif,PICED9F.gif (9)

PICEDB0.gif 

(10)

์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ, S๋Š” ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€์˜ ์ €๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰, I๋Š” ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰, P๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ํ† ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋ฉฐ a1,b1์€ ๊ฐ ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€๋ฅผ ์ง์œก๋ฉด์ฒด๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  PICEDB1.gif๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ฐ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ข…๋ฅ˜์˜ ์ž‘๋™ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜, q1, q2, q3, q4, q5, q6๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ํŠน์„ฑ๊ณก์„ ๋ฐฉ์ •์‹์˜ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์ด๊ณ  PICEDD1.gif๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์–‘์ •์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค.

Eq. (9)๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ์‚ฌ์ƒ์—์„œ ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ €๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ Eq. (10)๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ์‚ฌ์ƒ์—์„œ ์ž‘๋™๋œ ํŽŒํ”„๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ํ† ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์–‘์ •์„ ๊ด€์ธกํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„ ๊ฐ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ๋ถ„๋‹น ํ† ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰ O๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•œ ๋‹ค์Œ ์‹์œผ๋กœ ๋ณ€ํ™˜ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

PICEDE2.gif 

(11)

Eqs. (9) and (11)๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•œ ์ €๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ํ† ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ Eq. (8)์— ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋ณ„ ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•œ ํ›„ ๋ฒŒ์น™ํ•จ์ˆ˜ ๊ฐ’์„ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•˜์—ฌ ์ตœ์ ์˜ ์ž‘๋™ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ตฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.

2.3 ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์šด์˜๋ชจํ˜•(Geo-ANFIS)

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์šด์˜๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์—ฌ ๋„์‹œ์ง€์—ญ ํ”ผํ•ด์ €๊ฐ ๋Œ€์ฑ…์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ๋‚ด๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ ํ†ตํ•ฉ์šด์˜์˜ ํ•œ๊ณ„์ ์„ ๊ทน๋ณตํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ค๋ฌด์— ์ ์šฉํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ, ๊ทธ ์ ์šฉ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” Fig. 2์—์„œ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€๋‹ค.

Fig. 2.

Flow Chart

Figure_KSCE_37_06_01_F2.jpg

Geo-ANFIS ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ๊ฐ€ ๋˜๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ ˆ์ฐจ๋Š” ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค. ์•ž์„œ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ•˜์˜€๋“ฏ์ด ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€ ๋ชจํ˜•์—์„œ ๋ถˆํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ์˜ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๊ทœ์น™์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ์˜ค์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์œ ๋ฐœํ•˜๋ฏ€๋กœ ์ตœ์†Œํ•œ์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์™€ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ž‘์€ ์˜ค์ฐจ์™€ ํฐ ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ตœ์ข…์ ์œผ๋กœ ์„ ํƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์šฐ์„  ์„ ํ–‰์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํ™•๋ณด ๋ฐ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฏ€๋กœ ์ž๊ธฐ ์ƒ๊ด€๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐ ๊ต์ฐจ ์ƒ๊ด€๋ถ„์„์„ ์‹ค์‹œํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ทธ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ณ„๋กœ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ณ„ ํ‰๊ท ์ ˆ๋Œ€์˜ค์ฐจ(MAE), ํ‰๊ท ์ œ๊ณฑ๊ทผ์˜ค์ฐจ(RMSE), ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜(DC), ์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒจ๋‘์˜ค์ฐจ(RPE)๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ ํ•ฉํ•œ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ฑ„ํƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์— ์ ์šฉ๋œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ๋Š” ์„ ํ–‰๊ฐ•์šฐ, ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„ ๋ฐ ์™ธ์ˆ˜์œ„, ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ์˜ ๊ฐœํ์—ฌ๋ถ€, ์ž‘๋™์ค‘์ธ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๊ณ ๋ ค๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์„ ์ •๋œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ณ„๋กœ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ์„ ์ •๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๊ณผ ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€๋กœ ํ‰๊ท ์ ˆ๋Œ€์˜ค์ฐจ, ํ‰๊ท ์ œ๊ณฑ๊ทผ์˜ค์ฐจ, ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜, ์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒจ๋‘์˜ค์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ตœ์ข…์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ ํ•ฉํ•œ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ฑ„ํƒํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

์ด์ „ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํ˜„์žฌ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ธก๋œ ํ˜„์žฌ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘๋™ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ณผ์ •์—์„œ ์ตœ์ ์˜ ์ž‘๋™ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ตœ์ ํ™” ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ •๋œ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด๊ณผ ๋ชฉ์ ํ•จ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋งŒ์กฑ์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ์ž‘๋™ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋œ ์ž‘๋™ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์–ด ๋‹ค์Œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„ ์˜ˆ์ธก์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

3. ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ ์šฉ

3.1 ๋Œ€์ƒ์œ ์—ญ

์„œ์šธ์‹œ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์€ ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œผ๋กœ ์ง์ ‘ ์œ ์ž…๋˜๋Š” ํ•œ๊ฐ•์˜ ์ง€์ฒœ ๋ฐ ์ฃผ์š”ํ† ๊ตฌ๋ณ„๋กœ ๋ถ„ํ• ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ•๋ถ์— ๋งˆํฌ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋“ฑ 10๊ฐœ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ๊ณผ ๊ฐ•๋‚จ์— ํƒ„์ฒœ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋“ฑ 6๊ฐœ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์œผ๋กœ์„œ ์ด 16๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋‰œ๋‹ค. 16๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์€ ๋‹ค์‹œ 239๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ถ„๊ตฌ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋‰˜์–ด์ง€๋ฉฐ, ๋งˆํฌ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋‚ด์—๋Š” 8๊ฐœ(์•„ํ˜„, ์ฐฝ์ „, ํ•ฉ์ •, ๋Œ€ํ˜„, ๊ณต๋•, ์‹ ์ดŒ, ์‹ ์ˆ˜, ์‹ฌ์›)์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ถ„๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ถ„๊ตฌ์˜ ๋ถ„ํ• ์€ ์ฃผ์š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜ํ† ๊ตฌ ๋ฐ ๋ถ„์ˆ˜๋ น์„ ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ ๋ถ„๊ตฌ์˜ ํŠน์„ฑ์— ์ ํ•ฉํ•œ ํ•˜์ˆ˜๋„ ์‹œ์„ค์ •๋น„ ๋ฐ ๊ด€๊ฑฐ ์ค€์„ค์ž‘์—… ๋“ฑ ์œ ์ง€๊ด€๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์šฉ์ดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ–‰ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ๊ณ„ํšํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๋งˆํฌ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์€ ํ–‰์ •์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋งˆํฌ๊ตฌ์™€ ์šฉ์‚ฐ๊ตฌ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฉด์ ์€ 1069.2ha, ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋‚ด์— ๋งˆํฌ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ, ํ•ฉ์ • ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ, ์ƒ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ, ๋ด‰์› ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ, ๋‹น์ธ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ, ์‹ฌ์› ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์ด ์กด์žฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œผ๋กœ ์ง์ ‘ ์œ ์ž…๋˜๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ์ค‘์˜ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ด๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งˆํฌ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์€ ๋งˆํฌ, ์„œ๋Œ€๋ฌธ ์ž๋™๊ธฐ์ƒ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ(AWS)์˜ ๊ด€์ธก์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•œ๋‹ค. Fig. 3์€ ์„œ์šธ์‹œ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ํ˜„ํ™ฉ๋„์™€ ๋งˆํฌ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋‚ด 8๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ถ„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. Fig. 3(b)์—์„œ์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด 8๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ถ„๊ตฌ๋Š” ๊ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์กด์žฌ๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด ๋ด‰์› ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์€ ์•„ํ˜„ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ถ„๊ตฌ์˜ ์œ ์ถœ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€ํ˜„ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ถ„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฑฐ์ณ ์ฐฝ์ „ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ถ„๊ตฌ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ด‰์› ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ž…๋˜๋ฉฐ, ํ•ฉ์ • ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ถ„๊ตฌ๋Š” ํ•ฉ์ •, ๋‹น์ธ, ์ƒ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์ด 3๊ณณ์ด ์œ„์น˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.

Fig. 3.

Study Area

Figure_KSCE_37_06_01_F3.jpg

3.2 ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„ ์˜ˆ์ธก

3.2.1 ๊ต์ฐจ ๋ฐ ์ž๊ธฐ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„ ๋ถ„์„

์ •ํ™•๋„๋ฅผ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚ค๋ฉด์„œ ๋ชจ์˜์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๋‹จ์ถ•ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ž…๋ ฅ ์ž๋ฃŒ์˜ ์กฐํ•ฉ์„ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์™€ ์ถœ๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๊ฐ„์˜ ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ๋Š” ๋งˆํฌ๊ตฌ๋‚ด ๊ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ๊ฐ•์šฐ์™€ ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ต์ฐจ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„์™€ ์ž๊ธฐ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์œ ์ถœ์— ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฐ•์šฐ์™€ ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€ ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ต์ฐจ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋งˆํฌ๊ตฌ๋‚ด ์œ„์น˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ ์šฉํ•œ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์€ ๋‹จ์ผํ˜ธ์šฐ์™€ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด ์ด 8๊ฐœ์˜ ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ(Table 1)์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Table 1. Applied Rainfall Event Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T1.jpg

๊ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ๋งˆ๋‹ค ๋†’์€ ๊ต์ฐจ์ƒ๊ด€๋„๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ ๋‹ฌ๋ž์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ด๋Š” ๊ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์ด ์œ„์น˜ํ•˜๋Š” ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๋ฉด์ , ํ•˜์ˆ˜๊ด€๊ฑฐ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ, ๋ถˆํˆฌ์ˆ˜์œจ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ํŠน์„ฑ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค. ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด, ๋‚œ์ง€('t-80')์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋งค์šฐ ํฐ ์œ ์—ญ๋ฉด์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•˜์—ฌ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๋ฐ˜์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๋งค์šฐ ์ปค์„œ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๋ฉด์ ์ด ์ž‘์€ ์„ฑ์‚ฐ('t-10'), ํ•ฉ์ •('t-10')๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ๋†’์€ ์ƒ๊ด€๋„๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๋Š๋ฆฐ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ด‰์›('t-10')๊ณผ ๋งˆํฌ('t-20')๋Š” ๋ง์›1('t-40')๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ํฐ ๋ฉด์ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ๋†’์€ ์ƒ๊ด€๋„๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๋น ๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ์€ ํฐ ํ•˜์ˆ˜๊ด€๊ฑฐ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ์™€ ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ๋ฉด์ ์œจ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ƒ์ˆ˜('t-50')์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋งค์šฐ ์ž‘์€ ์œ ์—ญ๋ฉด์ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ๋†’์€ ์ƒ๊ด€๋„๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๋ฉด์ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋Š๋ฆฐ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ƒ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๋ถˆํˆฌ์ˆ˜์œจ๋กœ ์ธํ•˜์—ฌ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๋„๋‹ฌ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๊ธธ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค.

๊ฐ•์šฐ์™€ ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ ๊ต์ฐจ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„ ๋ถ„์„์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์œ ์—ญ๋งˆ๋‹ค ๋ฉด์  ํ˜น์€ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ๋ฉด์ ๊ณผ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ํ‰๊ท ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ ํ˜น์€ ํ•˜์ˆ˜๊ด€๊ฑฐ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ ๋ฐ ๋ถˆํˆฌ์ˆ˜์œจ ๋“ฑ์˜ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ์ง€ํ˜•์  ํŠน์„ฑ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํŒจํ„ด์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜• ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์‹œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋˜๋ฉฐ ํ‰๊ท ์ ์œผ๋กœ 't-10'์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์€ ์ƒ๊ด€๋„๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์˜ 't-10'์„ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ โ€˜t-์ˆซ์žโ€™๋Š” ์ˆซ์ž์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•˜๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋‹จ์œ„ โ€œ๋ถ„โ€์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•˜๋Š” ์ด์ „์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค.

์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€ ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ์„œ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์™€ ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€๋กœ ์ž๊ธฐ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ ์•ž์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ 8๊ฐœ์˜ ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€ ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ ์ž๊ธฐ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„๋Š” ๋‹จ์ผํ˜ธ์šฐ ๋ฐ ๋ณตํ•ฉํ˜ธ์šฐ ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ๊ด€๊ณ„์—†์ด ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ง€์ฒด๋จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ ์ฐจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜์—ฌ ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€ ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ 't-10'์„ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค.

3.2.2 ์ตœ์  ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ์˜ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ

๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋ฉค๋ฒ„์‰ฝํ•จ์ˆ˜์™€ ๊ทœ์น™์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ณ  ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ž‘์€ ์˜ค์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ตœ์ข…์ ์œผ๋กœ ์„ ํƒํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค. Table 2๋Š” ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ์ ์šฉ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์ œ์›์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ Table 3์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ โ€˜Rโ€™์€ ๊ฐ•์šฐ, โ€˜Iโ€™๋Š” ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„, โ€˜Gโ€™๋Š” ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ์˜ ๊ฐœํ์—ฌ๋ถ€, โ€˜Sโ€™๋Š” ์œ ์ˆ˜์ง€ ์™ธ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋ฉฐ Table 1์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œ๋œ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ํ›ˆ๋ จ(Training), ํ™•์ธ(Checking), ๊ฒ€์ฆ(Testing)๋‹จ๊ณ„์— ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Table 2. Physical Characteristics at Each Pump Station in Mapo (Seoul Metropolitan City, 2009) Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T2.jpg
Table 3. Details of 10 Models Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T3.jpg

10๊ฐœ์˜ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€ ๋ชจํ˜•์€ ๊ฐ๊ฐ Generalized Bell Membership Function (gbell, gbell2), Gaussian Membership Function (gauss, gauss_constant), Sigmoid Membership Function (dsigmoid) ๋ฐ Subtractive clustering (cluster)๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ Table 4์— ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋ชจ์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋œ ์˜ค์ฐจ๋Š” Table 5์—์„œ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€๋‹ค. ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ๋ฉค๋ฒ„์‰ฝํ•จ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ทœ์น™์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ฐพ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๊ทœ์น™์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ 3๊ฐœ๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ทœ์น™์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ 2๊ฐœ์ธ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์™€ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๊ทœ์น™์ˆ˜์™€ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ์ž๋™์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทœ์น™์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์•„์ฃผ๋Š” Subtractive clustering ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ 1์ฐจ Takagi-Sugeno (linear)์™€ 0์ฐจ Takagi-Sugeno (constant)๋ฅผ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ Gaussian Membership Function์ ์šฉ์‹œ ๋‘ Takagi-Sugeno๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ •ํ™•์„ฑ๊ณผ ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ์„ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ ˆ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ท ์˜ค์ฐจ(MAE), ํ‰๊ท ์ œ๊ณฑ๊ทผ์˜ค์ฐจ(RMSE), ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜(DC), ์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒจ๋‘์˜ค์ฐจ(RPE)์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ํŒ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ค€์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Table 5์—์„œ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋“ฏ์ด, model T10์ด ํ‰๊ท ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ž‘์€ ํ‰๊ท ์˜ค์ฐจ ๋ฐ ์ ˆ๋Œ€์ œ๊ณฑ๊ทผ์˜ค์ฐจ์™€ ์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒจ๋‘์˜ค์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ณ„๋กœ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด ๊ฐ•์šฐ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ model T1~modelT3์ค‘ model T3์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ํฐ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ์—†๊ณ  ์˜ค์ฐจ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ž‘์ง€๋งŒ ํ›ˆ๋ จ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ ํ•™์ŠตํšŸ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ชจ์˜์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๊ฑธ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‹จ์ ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. model T4~model T6์—์„œ ์™ธ์ˆ˜์œ„, ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ์˜ ๊ฐœํ์—ฌ๋ถ€, ์šด์˜ํŽŒํ”„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋น„๊ตํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด ์šด์˜ํŽŒํ”„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ model T6์ด ์˜ค์ฐจ๊ฐ€ ์ž‘๊ณ  ๋†’์€ ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ๋ฌด์—‡๋ณด๋‹ค ์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒจ๋‘์˜ค์ฐจ ๊ฐ’์ด ๋งŽ์ด ์ž‘์•˜๋‹ค. Fig. 4๋Š” model T6์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ 2010๋…„ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜ˆ์ธก๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์‹ค์ธก๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์™€ ๋น„๊ตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ชจํ˜•๋ณ„๋กœ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.

Table 4. Applied Method Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T4.jpg
Table 5. Statistical Index of ANFIS using Temporal Parameters Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T5.jpg
Table 5. Statistical Index of ANFIS using Temporal Parameters Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T5_1.jpg
Fig. 4.

Results of Inner Stage Estimation in Model T6

Figure_KSCE_37_06_01_F4.jpg

3.3 Geo-ANFIS ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ ์šฉ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ

๋งˆํฌ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์€ ํ•ฉ์ •(Hapjeong), ๋‹น์ธ(Dangin), ์ƒ์ˆ˜(Sangsu), ๋ด‰์›(Bongwon), ๋งˆํฌ(Mapo), ์‹ฌ์›(Simwon)์œผ๋กœ ์ด 6๊ฐœ์ด๋ฉฐ, ํ•ฉ์ •, ๋‹น์ธ, ์ƒ์ˆ˜, ๋ด‰์›, ๋งˆํฌ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ Geo-ANFIS์˜ ํƒ€๋‹น์„ฑ์„ ์ž…์ฆํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹ฌ์› ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋Š” ๊ด€๊ฑฐ์˜ ํ‰๊ท ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ, ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๋ฉด์ , ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ๋ฉด์ , ๋ถˆํˆฌ์ˆ˜์œจ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค.

Fig. 5.

Results of Inner Stage Estimation in Model G8-C5

Figure_KSCE_37_06_01_F5.jpg
Table 6. Details of 8 Models Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T6.jpg
Table 7. Statistical Index of Geo-ANFIS Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T7.jpg
Table 7. Statistical Index of Geo-ANFIS (Continue) Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T7_1.jpg

์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋งŒ์„ ์ ์šฉํ•œ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ด ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•œ Geo-ANFIS๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋ฉค๋ฒ„์‰ฝํ•จ์ˆ˜์™€ ๊ทœ์น™์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ณ  ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ž‘์€ ์˜ค์ฐจ์™€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ตœ์ข…์ ์œผ๋กœ ์„ ํƒํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด Table 6๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ด ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ์ž…๋ ฅ์กฐ๊ฑด ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋ฉค๋ฒ„์‰ฝ ํ•จ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์•ž์„œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋งŒ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•๊ณผ ๋™์ผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ณ„ ๋ชจ์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋งˆํฌ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ํ‰๊ท ์˜ค์ฐจ๋ฅผ Table 7์— ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Fig. 5๋Š” 2010๋…„ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด model G8-C5๋ฅผ ๊ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์‹ค์ธก์น˜์™€ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€๋‹ค.

์•ž์„œ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ•˜์˜€๋“ฏ์ด ์‹ฌ์›๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์€ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€ ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๊ต์ฐจํƒ€๋‹นํ™”๋ฅผ ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์ด๋‹ค. ๊ต์ฐจํƒ€๋‹นํ™”๋ž€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํƒ€๋‹น์„ฑ์„ ๊ทธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ‘œ๋ณธ์œผ๋กœ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•ด๋ณด๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ๋งํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ฆ‰, ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€ ๋ชจํ˜•์ค‘ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ตœ์ ์˜ ์ž๋ฃŒ์กฐํ•ฉ์„ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜๋Š” G8-C5๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ์ ์šฉ์‹œ ์‹ค์ธก๊ฐ’๊ณผ์˜ ์˜ค์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ํƒ€๋‹น์„ฑ์„ ์ž…์ฆํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. Fig. 6์€ ์‹ฌ์›๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ต์ฐจํƒ€๋‹นํ™”๋ฅผ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ Fig. 7์€ ๊ต์ฐจํƒ€๋‹นํ™”์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์‹ฌ์›๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋งˆํฌ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ๋น„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋ณ€ํ™”ํญ์ด ์ž‘๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ํ•˜๊ฐ•์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํŒจํ„ด์ด ์ž‘์•˜๋‹ค. ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ ์šฉ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ ๋†’์„์ˆ˜๋ก ์˜ˆ์ธก์น˜๊ฐ€ ๊ด€์ธก์น˜๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์ ˆ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ท ์˜ค์ฐจ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ 0.033์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ํ‰๊ท ์ธ 0.030884๊ณผ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์œ ์‚ฌํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜๋Š” ์•ฝ 0.73์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค.

Fig. 6.

Meaning of Cross Validation

Figure_KSCE_37_06_01_F6.jpg
Fig. 7.

Estimated versus Observed Stage at Cross Validation Step for Simwon

Figure_KSCE_37_06_01_F7.jpg

3.4 ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์˜ ์ ์šฉ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ

๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ ์šฉํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜๋Š” ์„ ํ–‰์‹œ๊ฐ„ 10๋ถ„('t-10')์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ๋ฒŒ์น™์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ํ™œ์šฉ๋˜์–ด ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์˜์„ ์ž๋™์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์‹œํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์˜๋ฃฐ์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์–ด ๋‹ค์Œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•œ๋‹ค.

์˜ˆ์ธก๋œ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์—์„œ์˜ ์ตœ์ ์˜ ์ž‘๋™ ํŽŒํ”„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ, ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋˜ ๋งˆํฌ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์— ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ๋ฒŒ์น™์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฒŒ์น™์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์˜ ์ ์šฉ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์  ์ œ๋ฐ˜์‚ฌํ•ญ๊ณผ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ(Table 1)๊ณผ ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ก์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ก์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋น—๋ฌผํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋‹ด๋‹น ์†Œ๊ด€์ธ ๋งˆํฌ๊ตฌ์ฒญ์˜ ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์šด์˜์‹คํƒœ ์กฐ์‚ฌ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ฐธ๊ณ ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์  ์ œ๋ฐ˜์‚ฌํ•ญ์€ Table 8์— ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋ฒŒ์น™์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์ตœ์  ์šด์˜๋ชจ์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” Fig. 8๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค.

๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ค„์ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์˜์‹œ๊ฐ„๊ณผ ์–‘์ˆ˜์œจ์„ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ ์ตœ์ ์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์˜์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์ฒจ๋‘์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๊ธฐ ์ „์— ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ž‘๋™์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค.

๋งˆํฌ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ 20๋ถ„ ๋จผ์ € 450hp ํŽŒํ”„๋ฅผ ์ž‘๋™ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์ด ํ›„ ์žฆ์€ ์ž‘๋™๊ณผ ์ค‘์ง€์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์„ ํ”ผํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ 0.13m ๋‚ฎ์ถœ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•ฉ์ • ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋Š” ์‹ค์ œ์šด์˜์„ ๋น„๊ต์  ์ตœ์ ์˜ ์ƒํƒœ์— ๊ฐ€๊น๊ฒŒ ์šด์˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ์—†์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ 1,050๋ถ„์—์„œ 100hp ํŽŒํ”„๋ฅผ 10๋ถ„๊ฐ„ ์ž‘๋™ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ 1,010๋ถ„์—์„œ ์šด์˜์„ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ด์ „๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ณ„์† ์ž‘๋™ ์ค‘์ด์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ๊ฐ€๋™๊ณผ ์ •์ง€์ƒํƒœ์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์„ ํ”ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.

ํ•ฉ์ •๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์˜์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ˆ์ธก ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์—์„œ 1,050๋ถ„์— ํŽŒํ”„๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€๋™ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Œ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹ค์ธก ์ˆ˜์œ„์™€ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ์‹ค์ œ ์šด์˜์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ฝ 0.11m ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์ง€๋งŒ ํ•ฉ์ • ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ํ—ˆ์šฉ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„์ธ EL. 8.3m์—๋Š” ๋ชป๋ฏธ์น˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์•ˆ์ •์ ์ธ ์šด์˜์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค. ์ƒ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋„ 100hp ํŽŒํ”„์™€ 200hpํŽŒํ”„๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ˜ธ๋ณด์™„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์šด์˜์„ ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์ ์ธ ์ž‘๋™๊ณผ ์ •์ง€์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ์ค„์ด๋„๋ก ์šด์˜ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋Š” ์•ฝ 0.02m ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋‚˜ ์ƒ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ํ—ˆ์šฉ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„ EL. 9m์—๋Š” ์—ฌ์œ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋ด‰์› ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ๊ณผ ๋‹น์ธ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์€ ํ† ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์ด ํฐ 750hp ํŽŒํ”„๋งŒ์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด ํŽŒํ”„ ํ•œ ๋Œ€์˜ ์ž‘๋™๊ณผ ์ •์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜์œ„์— ํฐ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์‹ค์ œ์šด์˜์€ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์šด์˜์„ ํ”ผํ•˜์—ฌ ์šด์˜๋น„ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ์„ ๋†’์ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ 1,250๋ถ„์— 750hpํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์šด์˜์„ ์ค‘์ง€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ๊ณ„์† ์ž‘๋™์‹œ์ผฐ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋‚ฎ์•„์กŒ์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ตœ์ €์ˆ˜์œ„์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. ๋‹น์ธ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋Š” ์‹ค์ œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ ๋‹น์ธ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ํ—ˆ์šฉ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„์ธ EL. 6.0m์— ์—ฌ์œ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ 0.34m๋ฐ–์— ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„์„œ ์‹ค์ œ ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์˜์‹œ์ž‘์‹œ๊ฐ„๋ณด๋‹ค 10๋ถ„ ์•ž์„œ ์šด์˜์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ EL. 5.66m์—์„œ EL. 5.43m๋กœ 0.23m ๋‚ฎ์•„์กŒ๋‹ค. ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์‹ค์ œ ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์˜์‹œ์ž‘ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ ํ•ฉ์ •, ์ƒ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ 2009๋…„ 9์›”21์ผ 13:15:00์ด๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ๋ฒŒ์น™์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ์ ์šฉํ•œ ์ตœ์  ์šด์˜ ๋ชจ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์—์„œ๋Š” 10๊ฐ„๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ๋ชจ์˜๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์‹ค์ œ ํ•ฉ์ •, ์ƒ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ 5๋ถ„ ์•ž์„œ ํŽŒํ”„์šด์˜์ด ์‹œ์ž‘๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด ๊ด€์ธก๋˜๋Š” ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋Š” ๋” ๋‚ฎ์•„์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

Table 8. Physical Characteristics of Each Pump Station (Seoul Metropolitan City, 2009) Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T8.jpg

3.5 ๋น„๊ต ๋ฐ ๋ถ„์„

๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€ ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ ์šฉ์„ฑ์„ ๊ฒ€ํ† ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ํ›ˆ๋ จ, ํ™•์ธ, ๊ฒ€์ฆ์˜ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ฑฐ์น˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ด ์ค‘ ํ›ˆ๋ จ ๊ณผ ํ™•์ธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์†Œ์† ํ•จ์ˆ˜์˜ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด ๋•Œ ํ›ˆ๋ จ๊ณผ ํ™•์ธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์— ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๋ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„ ๋“ฑ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์†Œ์† ํ•จ์ˆ˜์˜ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ๊ฐ’์ด ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์ง€๋ฉฐ ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€ ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋˜ํ•œ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค.

๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์•ž์„œ ์„ ์ •๋œ 4๊ฐœ์˜ ๋‹จ์ผ ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ(Table 1)์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด ํ›ˆ๋ จ๊ณผ ํ™•์ธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ํ˜ธ์šฐ์กฐํ•ฉ์„ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ(Table 9)ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ฐ ์กฐํ•ฉ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๊ฒ€์ฆ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ ์ •๋Ÿ‰์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ •๋Ÿ‰์  ๋ถ„์„์„ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ ˆ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ท ์˜ค์ฐจ, ํ‰๊ท ์ œ๊ณฑ๊ทผ์˜ค์ฐจ, ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜, ์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒจ๋‘์˜ค์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ฐ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ํ‰๊ท ๊ฐ’์„ Table 10์— ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Fig. 8.

Results of Optimization Simulation

Figure_KSCE_37_06_01_F8.jpg
Table 9. Details of 12 Test Case Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T9.jpg
Table 10. Statistical Index of Test Table_KSCE_37_06_01_T10.jpg

์ ˆ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ท ์˜ค์ฐจ๋Š” 0.031m~0.064m, ํ‰๊ท ์ œ๊ณฑ๊ทผ์˜ค์ฐจ๋Š” 0.046m~ 0.120m, ๊ฒฐ์ •๊ณ„์ˆ˜๋Š” 0.851~0.987, ์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒจ๋‘์˜ค์ฐจ๋Š” 0.468m~ 1.005m ๋ฒ”์œ„๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด ์–ด๋–ค ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์„ ํ›ˆ๋ จ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์™€ ํ™•์ธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์— ์ ์šฉํ•˜๋Š”๊ฐ€์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ํ†ต๊ณ„์  ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ’์ด ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์ง์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ํ–ฅํ›„ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒ€์ฆ์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๋Œ€ํ‘œ์„ฑ์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค.

4. ๊ฒฐ ๋ก 

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋„์‹œ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๊ธฐ์กด ์šด์˜์ƒ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ ์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ธก๋œ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์˜๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์ค‘ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๋ฉด์„œ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์กฐ์ž‘์„ ํ”ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ตœ์  ์šด์˜๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ฐพ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ๋ฐ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ๋งˆํฌ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋‚ด ๋งˆํฌ, ํ•ฉ์ •, ์ƒ์ˆ˜, ๋ด‰์›, ๋‹น์ธ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ํ™•์žฅ์„ฑ ๊ณ ๋ ค๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ์‹ฌ์› ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ์ฃผ์š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ด ์š”์•ฝํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.

(1)์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์™€ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ˆ์ธก ๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€ ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ณ  ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ์šด์˜์„ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ์ˆ˜์ •ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ œ์•ฝ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์šด์˜๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

(2)๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์ฒจ๋‘์œ ๋Ÿ‰ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œ์ ์—์„œ๋Š” ์–ด๋– ํ•œ ์šด์˜๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์—์„œ๋„ ๋ชจ๋“  ํŽŒํ”„๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€๋™ํ•˜๋ฏ€๋กœ ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ ์šด์˜์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์ฒจ๋‘์œ ๋Ÿ‰ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์ด์ „์˜ ํŽŒํ”„ ๊ฐ€๋™์‹œ์ ๊ณผ ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์–‘์ˆ˜์œจ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ ์ ˆํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์กฐ์ ˆํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ์šด์˜์€ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด ์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ˆ์ธก์ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ์˜ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„์— ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฐ•์šฐ์™€ ์ˆ˜์œ„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ต์ฐจ์ƒ๊ด€๋ถ„์„๊ณผ ์ž๊ธฐ์ƒ๊ด€๋ถ„์„์„ ์‹ค์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

(3)๋‰ด๋กœ-ํผ์ง€ ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•œ ์„ ํ–‰์‹œ๊ฐ„ 10๋ถ„์˜ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ตœ์  ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ ์กฐํ•ฉ์˜ ์„ ์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋งˆํฌ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๊ฐ•์šฐ, ์ž‘๋™ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์ˆ˜, ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„, ์™ธ์ˆ˜์œ„, ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ์˜ ๊ฐœํ์—ฌ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๊ณ  ๋ฉด์ , ํ‰๊ท ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ, ๋ถˆํˆฌ์ˆ˜์œจ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.๋ถ„์„ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ T6, ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ G8์ด ์ตœ์  ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ์˜ ์กฐํ•ฉ์ž„์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฆ‰, ํ˜„์žฌ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ t์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด๋ผ ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ, t์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ฐ•์šฐ, t-10์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ฐ•์šฐ, t์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์œ„, t์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ž‘๋™ ํŽŒํ”„์ˆ˜(ํ† ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰), ๋ฉด์ , ํ‰๊ท ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ, ๋ถˆํˆฌ์ˆ˜์œจ์„ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

(4)๋ฒŒ์น™์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์œ ์ „์ž ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ์ ์šฉํ•œ ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ์šด์˜๋ฃฐ์€ ํŽŒํ”„ ์šด์˜๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ์˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์—ฌ์œ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ํ™•๋ณด๋œ ์ƒํƒœ์—์„œ๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์ ์ธ ์šด์ „์€ ํ”ผํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์„œ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๋น„๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ๋น„์šฉ์ ˆ๊ฐ์— ๊ธฐ์—ฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋œ๋‹ค.

(5)๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•œ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ํŽŒํ”„์žฅ ์šด์˜๋ฃฐ์„ 2์ฐจ์› ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์นจ์ˆ˜ํ•ด์„๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ณ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ชจ๋‹ˆํ„ฐ๋ง์„ ์‹ค์‹œํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์‹ค์ œ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฉด์  ์ €๊ฐํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋ฉฐ ๋” ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€ ์žฌํ•ด์ •๋ณด ์ง€๋„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์— ๊ธฐ์ดˆ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์ œ๊ณตํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

Acknowledgements

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๊ตญํ† ๊ตํ†ต๋ถ€ ๋ฌผ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์‚ฌ์—…์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋น„์ง€์›(17AWMP- B079625-04)์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ˆ˜ํ–‰๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

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