Mobile QR Code QR CODE : Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers

  1. ์—ฐ์„ธ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ๊ฑด์„คํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ณตํ•™๊ณผ ์„์‚ฌ๊ณผ์ • (Yonsei University)
  2. ์—ฐ์„ธ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ๊ฑด์„คํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ณตํ•™๊ณผ ๋ฐ•์‚ฌ๊ณผ์ • (Yonsei University)
  3. ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ณต๋‹จ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์› (Korea National Park Service)
  4. ์—ฐ์„ธ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ๊ฑด์„คํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ณตํ•™๊ณผ ๋ถ€๊ต์ˆ˜ (Yonsei University)


์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ, ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›, ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง, ์˜์ƒ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜๋ถ„์„
Earthquake early warning system, Korea national park, Korea integrated seismic system, Image-based analysis

  • 1. ์„œ ๋ก 

  • 2. ์กฐ์‚ฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•

  •   2.1 ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง

  •   2.2 ์ง€์ง„์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ

  •   2.3 ๋ถ„์„ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜

  • 3. ์‹œํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋ถ„์„

  •   3.1 ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€(Coverage)

  •   3.2 ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ๋ฐฉ์œ„๋ณ„ ์ง€์ง„ ๋Œ€์‘ ์ทจ์•ฝ์„ฑ ๋ถ„์„

  • 4. ๊ฒฐ๋ก  ๋ฐ ํ† ์˜

  • 5. ํ•ด์™ธ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ

1. ์„œ ๋ก 

2016๋…„ 9์›” ๊ฒฝ๋ถ ๊ฒฝ์ฃผ์— ๊ทœ๋ชจ 5.8์˜ ๊ฐ•์ง„์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ด๋ž˜ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ฐจ๋ก€์˜ ์—ฌ์ง„์ด ๋„์‹ฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ•ํƒ€ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋Œ€ํ•œ๋ฏผ๊ตญ์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๋Œ€์‘์ฒด๊ณ„ ๋ฐ ํ™œ์„ฑ ๋‹จ์ธต์˜ ์•ˆ์ •์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด๋ชฉ์ด ์ง‘์ค‘๋œ ๋ฐ” ์žˆ๋‹ค(Lee, 2017; Sim, 2017). ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„์˜ ์œ ๊ฐ์ง€์ง„ํšŸ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์ด ์ด๋ฏธ ๊ด€์ธก์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋ฐํ˜€์กŒ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์œ ์‚ฌ ์‹œ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋ ค์šด ๊ณ ์ธต ์•„ํŒŒํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ๋œ ์ฃผ๊ฑฐํ˜•ํƒœ์ธ ํ•œ๊ตญ์—์„œ๋Š” ํ˜„ํ–‰ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์žฌ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์˜ ์‹ค์ œ์  ํšจ๋ ฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์šฐ๋ ค๊ฐ€ ๊ณ ์กฐ๋œ ์ƒํƒœ์ด๋‹ค.

์ง€์ง„์€ ์ง€๊ฐ์— ์ถ•์ ๋œ ๋ณ€ํ˜• ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ์ธต์˜ ๋ฏธ๋„๋Ÿฌ์ง๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ง€๊ฐ ์šด๋™์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ง€์ง„ํŒŒ ํ˜•ํƒœ๋กœ ๋ถ„์ถœ๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ž์—ฐ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ํ›„ ์ฒ˜์Œ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜๋Š” PํŒŒ๋Š” SํŒŒ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ž‘์€ ์ง„ํญ์„ ๊ฐ€์ ธ ์œ ๋ฐœํ•˜๋Š” ํ”ผํ•ด์˜ ํฌ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, PํŒŒ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„๊ฐ€ ๋Š๋ฆฐ SํŒŒ๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฌผ์— ์•ฝ 1Hz์˜ ์ฃผ๊ธฐ ์šด๋™์„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œํ‚ค๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ SํŒŒ์˜ ์ฃผ๊ธฐ ํŠน์„ฑ์€ ๋„์‹ฌ์ง€์—ญ ๋‚ด ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ๊ณ ์œ ์ง„๋™์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฌผ์— ๊ณต์ง„ํ˜„์ƒ์„ ์ผ์œผ์ผœ ์ƒ๋‹นํ•œ ์œ„ํ˜‘์ด ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ(Earthquake Early Warning System, EEWS)์€ ๋จผ์ € ๋„์ฐฉํ•˜๋Š” PํŒŒ๋ฅผ ๊ด€์ธก ๋ฐ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์‚ฌ์ „ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์‹ค์งˆ์ ์ธ ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๋Š” SํŒŒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋ถ„์„๊ณผ์ •์€ PํŒŒ์˜ ๊ฒ€์ถœ, ์ง„์•™ ์œ„์น˜ ๊ฒฐ์ •, ๊ทœ๋ชจ ๋ฐ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ง€๋ฐ˜๊ฐ€์†๋„์˜ ๊ฒฐ์ •์˜ ์ˆœ์œผ๋กœ ์ง„ํ–‰๋œ๋‹ค. ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ PํŒŒ์˜ ๊ฒ€์ถœ์—๋Š” ์‹ ํ˜ธ ๋Œ€ ์žก์Œ๋น„(SNR)์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” Triggering Algorithm์ด ํ™œ์šฉ๋œ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ด ๊ณผ์ •์€ ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์žก์Œ๊ณผ ์‹ค์ œ PํŒŒ์˜ ์ง„ํญ์„ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ๊ตฌ๋ถ„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์„ฑํŒจ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐˆ๋ฆฐ๋‹ค. ์ง„์•™์˜ ์œ„์น˜๋Š” ์ง€๊ฐ ๋‚ด P์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„ ์ •๋ณด์™€ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ ๊ฐ„์˜ ์œ„์น˜์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐํ•˜์ ์ธ ๊ด€๊ณ„์‹์˜ ํ•ด๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์„œ ๊ฒฐ์ •๋œ๋‹ค. ์ง€์ง„์˜ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋Š” PํŒŒ ์ดˆ๋™์˜ ์ง€๋ฐ˜ ์šด๋™์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์–ป์–ด์ง€๋Š” ์ฃผ๊ธฐ ์ •๋ณด์ธ ํ‰๊ท ์ฃผ๊ธฐ(ฯ„c)์™€ ์šฐ์„ธ์ฃผ๊ธฐ(ฯ„pmax) ๋ฐ ์ง„ํญ ์ •๋ณด์ธ ์ดˆ๋™์ตœ๋Œ€๋ณ€์œ„(Pd)์™€ ์„ ํ˜• ๊ด€๊ณ„์— ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ง€์ง„๊ธฐ๋ก์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํ‰๊ท ์ฃผ๊ธฐ์™€ ์šฐ์„ธ์ฃผ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ ์ดˆ๋™์ตœ๋Œ€๋ณ€์œ„๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•˜๋ฉด ํ•ด๋‹น์ง€์—ญ์— ์ ํ•ฉํ•œ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์‹์„ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์œ„ ๊ณผ์ •์ด ์ˆ˜ํ–‰๋˜๋Š” EEWS์˜ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ์€ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ(Regional, Front-detection, Network-based)๊ณผ ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ(On-site system)์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋‰  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ์ž„์˜์˜ ์ง€์ ์—์„œ ์ง€์ง„์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๊ด‘์—ญ์ ์ธ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก๋ง์„ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์ธกํ•œ ์ง€์ง„์˜ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์— ์ง€์ง„์˜ ๊ทœ๋ชจ, ์˜ˆ์ƒ ๋„๋‹ฌ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฐ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ง€๋ฐ˜ ๊ฐ€์†๋„ ๋“ฑ์„ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ฒด๊ณ„์ด๋‹ค. ๊ตญ๋‚ด EEWS๋Š” ๋Œ€์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋ฐฉํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šฐ๋ฉฐ PํŒŒ์˜ ์ดˆ๋™์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋„์ถœ๋œ ์šฐ์„ธ์ฃผ๊ธฐ์™€ ์ดˆ๋™์ตœ๋Œ€๋ณ€์œ„์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„์‹์„ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์ง„์˜ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๋ฉฐ Attenuation relation model์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ง€๋ฐ˜๊ฐ€์†๋„๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ•œํŽธ, ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์— ์ง์ ‘ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ธ๊ทผ์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ด€์ธก ๋ฐ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜๋Š” ์ฒด๊ณ„์ด๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฅ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋‹จ์ผ์„ผ์„œ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ณ„์ธกํ•œ PํŒŒ์˜ ์ดˆ๋™์—์„œ ๊ตฌํ•ด์ง€๋Š” ํ‰๊ท ์ฃผ๊ธฐ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ดˆ๋™์ตœ๋Œ€๋ณ€์œ„๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ง€๋ฐ˜์ตœ๋Œ€์†๋„(PGV)๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•œ๋‹ค(Richard et al., 2009; Satriano et al., 2010; Korea Meteo-rological Administration 2011; Colombelli, 2015).

์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ํšจ๊ณผ๋Š” PํŒŒ์™€ SํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„ ์ฐจ์ด์—์„œ ๊ธฐ์ธํ•˜๋Š” ๋„๋‹ฌ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๋ฅผ ์šด์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์žฌ๋‚œ ๋Œ€์‘๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ์ง€๊ฐ์˜ PํŒŒ์™€ SํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ ํŠน์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ดํ•ด๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. Lee(1979)๋Š” ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ์ง€๊ฐ์˜ PํŒŒ ๋ฐ SํŒŒ์˜ ํ‰๊ท ์†๋„๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ธฐ 5.8km/sec, 3.5 km/sec๋ผ ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, Lee(2010)๋Š” ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๋‚จ๋ถ€ ์ง€๊ฐ์—์„œ PํŒŒ์˜ ์†๋„๋Š” ์ง€ํ‘œ ๋ถ€๊ทผ์—์„œ ๋ชจํ˜ธ๋ฉด๊นŒ์ง€ ์ ์ง„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ทธ ํ‰๊ท ๊ฐ’์ด 6.3km/sec์— ์ด๋ฅด๋ฉฐ, SํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„๋Š” ๊นŠ์ด 20km๊นŒ์ง€ 3.25~3.75km/sec์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Kang and Park(2006)์€ 1D PํŒŒ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์†๋„ ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ๋ฐ” ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋•Œ PํŒŒ์˜ ํ‰๊ท ์†๋„๋ฅผ 5.95km/sec๋ผ ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, Korea Meteorological Administration(2010)์—์„œ๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ตฌ์ถ• ์‹œ PํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„๋ฅผ 6km/sec๋กœ, SํŒŒ ๋ฐ LํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„๋ฅผ 2.9~3.6km/sec๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์€ 2015๋…„ ๊ธฐ์ค€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ํƒ๋ฐฉ๊ฐ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ 4์ฒœ 2๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๋ช…์— ์ด๋ฅด๋Š” ์ฃผ์š” ํœด์–‘์ง€ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ด๋ฉฐ ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ์•ผ์˜์žฅ ๋“ฑ ์—ฌ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ค๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๋จธ๋ฌด๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋Œ€์˜ ํญ ์—ญ์‹œ ๋„“์€ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์ด๋‹ค. ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ธ๊ตฌ ์ธก๋ฉด๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์€ ์ง€์ง„์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ๊ถŒ์—์„œ ๋ฉ€์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค. 1936๋…„ ์Œ๊ณ„์‚ฌ ์ง€์ง„(ML = 5.1) ๋‹น์‹œ, ์ง€๋ฆฌ์‚ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ์ผ๋ถ€์—์„œ ์‚ฐ์‚ฌํƒœ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, 1978๋…„ ์˜ค๋Œ€์‚ฐ ์ง€์ง„(ML = 4.8)์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฌธํ™”์žฌ๊ฐ€ ํŒŒ์†๋œ ์ผ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. 2016๋…„ 9์›” 12์ผ ๊ฒฝ์ฃผ ์ง€์ง„(ML = 5.8)์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ์ฒซ ์ง€์ง„์ด ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ์ง€ 2์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ง€๋‚œ ํ›„ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ณต๋‹จ์€ ์ „์ฒด ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž…์‚ฐ ํ†ต์ œ ์กฐ์น˜๋ฅผ ์ทจํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. 2017๋…„ 11์›” 15์ผ ํฌํ•ญ ์ง€์ง„(ML = 5.4) ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด์˜ ๋น„์•ฝ์ ์ธ ๋ฐœ์ „์— ํž˜์ž…์–ด ์ž…์‚ฐ ์ „๋ฉด ํ†ต์ œ๊ฐ€ 1๋ถ„ ํ›„ ๊ณตํ‘œ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋Œ€์‘์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ๋‚ด๋ถ€์— ์žˆ๋Š” ํƒ๋ฐฉ๊ฐ๋“ค์˜ ์ฒด๊ณ„์ ์ธ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์‘์„ ์œ ๋„ํ•˜๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ์—ญ๋ถ€์กฑ์ผ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ํ–ฅํ›„ ์ง€์ง„ ๋Œ€์‘์ฒด๊ณ„ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›๊ณต๋‹จ์€ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ณ„์ธก ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๊ณ„ํš ์ดˆ๊ธฐ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ์‹ค์ œ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๋Š” ์ž์ฒด ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ ์ „๋ฌดํ•œ ์ƒํƒœ์ด๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ํ–ฅํ›„ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ์„ค์น˜ ๋ฐ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ๊ณผ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ž…์ง€ ๋ถ„์„์ด ์š”๊ตฌ๋˜๋Š” ์ƒํƒœ์ด๋‹ค. ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๋‚จ๋ถ€ ์ง€๊ฐ์—์„œ์˜ PํŒŒ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„์™€ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๋‚ด์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ์œ„์น˜์ •๋ณด์— ๊ทผ๊ฑฐํ•˜์—ฌ 2020๋…„ ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ์˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ๊ฐ„ 10์ดˆ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ์กฑ์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€(Coverage)๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์œ„ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์‹œ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น ์‹œ๊ฐ„ 10์ดˆ ์ค‘ 5์ดˆ ๋‚ด์— ์ง„์•™ ์œ„์น˜๊ฒฐ์ •์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€์™€ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ๊ณต๊ฐ„ ๋ถ„ํฌ ๋ฐ ์ง€์ง„ ๋นˆ๋„ ๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ์ค‘์ฒฉ์‹œํ‚ด์œผ๋กœ์จ ํ˜„์žฅ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์‹ ์„ค์ด ์š”๊ตฌ๋˜๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์„ ์„ ๋ณ„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์ •๋ณด์™€ ํ›„์— ์†Œ๊ฐœ๋˜๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์„ ์กฐํ•ฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฐฉ์œ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์ง€์ง„ ๋ชจ๋‹ˆํ„ฐ๋ง ์ทจ์•ฝ์„ฑ์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ถ”ํ›„ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ ์ž…์ง€ ๋ถ„์„์— ๊ธฐ์—ฌํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

2. ์กฐ์‚ฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•

2.1 ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง

Fig. 1์€ ์ง„์•™๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์ง€์ง„ํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„ ๋ฐ EEWS์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ํ‰๊ท  ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ธ๋‹ค. ์ด๋•Œ, ๊ธด ์ ์„ ์€ ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ํ‰๊ท  ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์‹œ๊ฐ„๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ด๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ์˜ 2020๋…„ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์‹œ๊ฐ„์ธ 10์ดˆ์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•œ๋‹ค. ์งง์€ ์ ์„ ์€ ์ง„์•™ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ ์ผ๋ณธ์˜ FREQL์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ด๋•Œ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ตœ์†Œ ์†Œ์š”์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ 1์ดˆ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด๋‹ค(Nakamura, 2008). PํŒŒ์™€ SํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„๋ฅผ 6km/sec์™€ 3.5km/sec๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, P1์€ ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์œ ํšจํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ตœ์†Œ ์ง„์•™๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€๋กœ P2๋Š” ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์ง„ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ง„์•™๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ธ๋‹ค. ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ์žฅ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์—์„œ ์ „ํŒŒ๋˜์–ด ์˜ค๋Š” ์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ๋ณด๋‹ค ๊ธด ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„(Lead-time)์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ๋‹ค์ค‘์„ผ์„œ์— ์˜ํ•œ ๊ด€์ธก ๋ฐ ๋ถ„์„๊ณผ์ •์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ Redundancy๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ•จ๊ณผ ๋™์‹œ์— False alarm์„ ๋ณด๋‚ผ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋„ ๋‚ฎ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ P2 ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์ง„์•™๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ง€์ง„์— ํ•œํ•ด์„œ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์ด ์œ ํšจํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ํ•œ๊ณ„์ ์„ ๊ฐ–๋Š”๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์งง์€ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋‹จ์ ์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์ „๋ฐฉํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ๋‹จ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ๋‚ด ์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๋งˆ๋ จํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ํ˜„์žฅ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ๋‹จ์ผ์„ผ์„œ์— ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ Parameter ๋ถ„์„์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถ•์ ์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ํ›ˆ๋ จ์ด ๋ฏธ๋น„ํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ False alarm์„ ๋ณด๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค(Xu et al., 2017). ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ธ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋‘ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ƒํ˜ธ๋ณด์™„์ ์ธ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์ด ์š”๊ตฌ๋œ๋‹ค.

Fig. 1.

Concept of Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS)

Figure_KSCE_38_3_07_F1.jpg

๊ตญ๋‚ด์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ(Korea Meteorological Administration, KMA), ํ•œ๊ตญ์ง€์งˆ์ž์›์—ฐ๊ตฌ์›(Korea Institute of Geoscience And Mineral Resources, KIGAM), ํ•œ์ „์ „๋ ฅ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์›(Korea Electric Power Research Institute, KEPRI), ํ•œ๊ตญ์›์ž๋ ฅ์•ˆ์ „๊ธฐ์ˆ ์›(Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, KINS) 4๊ฐœ ๊ธฐ๊ด€์— ์˜ํ•ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง(Korea Integrated Seismic System, KISS)์ด ์šด์˜๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. KISS๋Š” 180์—ฌ ๊ฐœ(๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ ์†Œ์† 127๊ฐœ์†Œ, ์ง€์งˆ์ž์›์—ฐ๊ตฌ์› ์†Œ์† 38๊ฐœ์†Œ, ํ•œ๊ตญ์ „๋ ฅ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์› ์†Œ์† 15๊ฐœ์†Œ, ํ•œ๊ตญ์›์ž๋ ฅ์•ˆ์ „๊ธฐ์ˆ ์› ์†Œ์† 4๊ฐœ์†Œ)์˜ ์ƒ์‹œ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํš๋“ํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ๋ฐ ์ผ๋ถ€ ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์„ ๋™์‹œ์— ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(Fig. 2). ์ผ๋ณธ์˜ FREQL์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•œ ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๊ด€์ธก ํ›„ ๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐ ๋ฐœ๋ น์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด 1์ดˆ ์ด๋‚ด์ด๋ฏ€๋กœ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ํ™•์—ฐํ•˜๋‚˜, 2020๋…„ ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น ๋ชฉํ‘œ์‹œ๊ฐ„ 10์ดˆ๋ฅผ ๋น„์ถ”์–ด ๋ณด๋ฉด KISS์— ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ํ•œ ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ตฌํ˜„์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ƒ ์–ด๋ ค์šธ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” KISS์˜ ์œ„์น˜ ๋ฐ ์†์„ฑ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ์ž„์˜์˜ ์ง€์ ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ง€์ง„์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ „ํŒŒ๋œ PํŒŒ๊ฐ€ KISS์˜ ๊ฐ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๊นŒ์ง€ ์ „ํŒŒ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ถ„์„์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜๋˜, ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€(Coverage) ๋„์ถœ์— ์žˆ์–ด์„œ๋Š” ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์— ์ดˆ์ ์„ ๋งž์ถ”์—ˆ๋‹ค.

Fig. 2.

Korea Integrated Seismic System (2014)

Figure_KSCE_38_3_07_F2.jpg

2.2 ์ง€์ง„์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ

์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์žฌ๋‚œ ๋Œ€์‘๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์‹œ, ์ง€์ง„์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ(Radius of perceptibility, RP)์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€์ง„์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์ด๋ž€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์ง€์ง„์„ ์ธ์‹ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ง„์•™๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์‹œ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์˜ ์ตœ์™ธ๊ณฝ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ • Mercalli ์ง„๋„ ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ 1~2๊ธ‰ ์ˆ˜์ค€์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•˜๋Š” ์ง€์ง„์„ ๊ฐ์ง€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. Gutenberg(1956), Greenhalgh(1988), ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  McCue(2004)๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ฐ Richter Magnitude scale (ML)๊ณผ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์ ์ธ ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ง€์ง„์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์„ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ์˜์—ญ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์„ ๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ถˆํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋น„์šฉ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋ฏ€๋กœ ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์˜ ์„ค์ •์ด ์š”๊ตฌ๋œ๋‹ค. ์œ„ ๋ฌธํ—Œ์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ๋ชจ๋ธ๋“ค์€ ML < 4.0 ๋ฒ”์œ„์—์„œ๋Š” ์„œ๋กœ ์ผ์น˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์„ ๋ณด์ด๋‚˜ ML > 5.0 ๋ฒ”์œ„์—์„œ Greenhalgh(1988)๊ณผ McCue(2004)์˜ ๋ชจ๋ธ์€ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์ด ์ง€์ˆ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ๊ทœ๋ชจ์—๋Š” ์ ํ•ฉํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค.

2.3 ๋ถ„์„ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜

๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ์˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น ์†Œ์š”์‹œ๊ฐ„ 10์ดˆ ์ค‘ 5์ดˆ๋Š” PํŒŒ์˜ ๊ด€์ธก์— ์†Œ์š”๋˜๋ฉฐ ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ 5์ดˆ ๋‚ด์— ์ง„์›์˜ ์œ„์น˜์ •๋ณด(X, Y, Z) ๋ฐ ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์‹œ๊ฐ„(T), ๊ทœ๋ชจ(M)์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ถ„์„๊ณผ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ ธ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋•Œ, ๊ทœ๋ชจ(M)์€ PํŒŒ์˜ ์ง„ํญ ๋ฐ ์ฃผ๊ธฐ ๋ถ„์„์œผ๋กœ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ํ•˜๋‚˜ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์—์„œ PํŒŒ๋ฅผ ํƒ์ง€ํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ฒฐ์ •๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค(Hwang et al., 2007; Sheen et al., 2012). ์ง„์•™์˜ ๊ด€์ธก๋ฐฉ์ •์‹์€ ๊ฐœ๋žต์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ด ํ‘œํ˜„๋œ๋‹ค.

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Eq. (1)์—์„œ (Xi, Yi, Zi)์™€ (X, Y, Z)๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ฐ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ์œ„์น˜์ •๋ณด์™€ ์ง„์›์˜ ์œ„์น˜์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋ฉฐ, Vp๋Š” PํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„, Ti๋Š” ๊ฐ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์— PํŒŒ๊ฐ€ ๋„๋‹ฌํ•œ ์‹œ๊ฐ, T๋Š” ์ตœ์ดˆ ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์‹œ๊ฐ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. (Xi, Yi, Zi)์™€ Ti๋Š” ์ƒ์‹œ ์šด์˜ ์ค‘์ธ KISS๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ๊ฐ’์ด๋ฉฐ, PํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„ Vp๋Š” ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์ด๋‹ค. ์ž…๋ ฅ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋œ PํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด์‹œ์Šคํ…œ๊ณผ์˜ ํ†ต์ผ์„ฑ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด KMA(2010)์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ 6km/sec๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์‹ค์ œ ์œ„ ๊ด€์ธก๋ฐฉ์ •์‹ ๋‚ด ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋Š” (X, Y, Z)์™€ T์ด๋ฉฐ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์˜ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ ์–ด๋„ 4๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๊ด€์ธก๋ฐฉ์ •์‹์ด ์„ฑ๋ฆฝ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ํ›„ 5์ดˆ ๋‚ด์— ์ ์–ด๋„ 4๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์ธ๊ทผ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ PํŒŒ๊ฐ€ ํƒ์ง€๋จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ๊ด€์ธก๋ฐฉ์ •์‹์ด ์„ฑ๋ฆฝ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์˜์—ญ๋งŒ์„ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์‹œ๊ฐ„ 10์ดˆ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ์กฑ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋กœ ๊ฐ„์ฃผํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‹ค์ œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์— ์žˆ์–ด์„œ๋Š” ์ตœ์†Œ 6๊ฐœ์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ PํŒŒ ์ดˆ๋™์ด ๊ฐ์ง€๋˜์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๊ฐ€ 5 ์ด์ƒ์ธ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์— ํ•œํ•˜์—ฌ ์ •๋ฐ€ ๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น ์ค€๋น„์— ์ฐฉ์ˆ˜ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ตœ์†Œํ•œ์˜ ์š”๊ฑด์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋˜ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ณผํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์™ธ์˜ ์˜์—ญ์„ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ์ธก์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์‹œ๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ง€์ง„์žฌ๋‚œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ณด์™„ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ์˜์—ญ์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Kim and Park(2002)์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ง€์ง„์€ ์ฃผ๋กœ 0~15km ๊นŠ์ด์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, KMA(2010)์—์„œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์—์„œ ์ง€์ง„์˜ ์‹ฌ๋„๋ฅผ ํ‰๊ท  8km๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํžˆ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ง„์›๊ณผ ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šธ์ˆ˜๋ก ๊นŠ์ด์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ์ด ์ปค์ง€๊ฒ ์œผ๋‚˜ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ „๋ฐ˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ถ„์„์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ์ด ๋ฏธ๋ฏธํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹ค์ œ ๋ถ„์„ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์—์„œ๋Š” ์ง„์•™๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ 2์ฐจ์› ๊ณต๊ฐ„๋ถ„์„์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์žฌ๋‚œ ๋Œ€์‘๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ๋ถ„์„ ๊ณผ์ •์ด๋ฏ€๋กœ ๋ณด์ˆ˜์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋„์ถœ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜์—ฌ ์œ„์˜ 3์ฐจ์› ๊ด€์ธก๋ฐฉ์ •์‹์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ตœ์†Œ 4๊ฐœ์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์˜ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ์กฐ๊ฑด์œผ๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด, Fig. 3์˜ ์ˆœ์„œ๋กœ ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๋‚ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง์˜ ์œ„์น˜์™€ ๋‚ด๋ฅ™ ์ž„์˜์˜ ์ง€์  ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator) ์ขŒํ‘œ๊ณ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์•ฝ 0.6km/pixel ํ•ด์ƒ๋„๋กœ ํˆฌ์˜ํ•œ ๋Œ€ํ•œ๋ฏผ๊ตญ ์˜์ƒ ์ขŒํ‘œ ์ค‘, ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•˜๋Š” ํ”ฝ์…€(pixel)์˜ ์ขŒํ‘œ๋ฅผ WGS84 (World Geodesic System 1984) ์ขŒํ‘œ๊ณ„๋กœ ๋ณ€ํ™˜ํ•œ ๋’ค ํ•ด๋‹น ์ง€์ ๊ณผ KISS๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ถ„์„์„ ์‹ค์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์•ž์„œ ์„ค๋ช…ํ–ˆ๋“ฏ์ด ์ž„์˜์˜ ์ง€์ ์ด ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ๋ถ€ํ•ฉํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ํ•ด๋‹น ์ง€์ ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ „ํŒŒ๋œ PํŒŒ๊ฐ€ 5์ดˆ์˜ ๊ด€์ธก์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด์— ์ ์–ด๋„ 4๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ํƒ์ง€๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ๋งŒ์กฑ์‹œ์ผœ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. PํŒŒ๊ฐ€ 5์ดˆ ๋™์•ˆ 6km/sec์˜ ์†๋„๋กœ ์ „ํŒŒ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 30km์ด๋ฏ€๋กœ ์œ„ ์กฐ๊ฑด์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์ž„์˜์˜ ์ง€์ ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 30km ์ด๋‚ด์— ์ฃผ๋ณ€์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์ ์–ด๋„ 4๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ ์กด์žฌํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ•ด๋‹น ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ๋งŒ์กฑ์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ์ง€์ ๋งŒ์„ ์„ ํƒํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Fig. 3.

Algorithm for the Estimation of the P-Wave-Detectable area Within 5sec

Figure_KSCE_38_3_07_F3.jpg

๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ถ„์„ ํ›„ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์ด ํ™•๋ณดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๋„์ถœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‹ค์ œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ง€์ง„ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๋ฒ”์œ„๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ํŒŒ์— ์˜ํ•ด ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ด๋ฅผ ๊ฐ์ง€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฒ”์œ„ ๋‚ด๋กœ ํ•œ์ •๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜์—ฌ ์•ž์„œ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•œ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ(Rp)๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ถ„์„์˜ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๋ฒ”์œ„๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ, ๋ฌธํ—Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ค‘ ์ค‘๊ฐ„๊ฐ’์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•˜๋Š” Gutenberg(1956)์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ 217km (ML = 6.0 ๊ธฐ์ค€)๋ฅผ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋‚ด์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๋‚ด๋ฅ™์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ง€์ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์œ„ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํ•˜์—ฌ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜์˜€๊ณ  ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์ด ํ™•๋ณด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ Eq. (2)๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

PIC13E0.gif (2)

Taction์€ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„, Leq์€ ์ง„์•™๊ณผ ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ์ค‘์‹ฌ ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ, LKNP๋Š” ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ๊ฒฝ๊ณ„๊นŒ์ง€์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ, VS๋Š” SํŒŒ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„, Tnetwork์€ KISS๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•œ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด์‹œ๊ฐ„์ธ 10์ดˆ๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋•Œ SํŒŒ์˜ ์ „ํŒŒ์†๋„๋Š” ๋ฌธํ—Œ์—์„œ ํ†ต์ƒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ํ‰๊ท ๊ฐ’์ธ 3.5km/sec๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Eq. (2)๋Š” Fig. 1์˜ Regional Lead-time์„ ์ˆ˜์‹ํ™”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์œ ํšจ ๋ฒ”์œ„์™€ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์˜ ๊ต์ง‘ํ•ฉ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ„์ฃผํ•˜์—ฌ, Leq๋ฅผ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ํ‰๊ท ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์— 35km๋ฅผ ๋”ํ•œ ๊ฐ’๋ณด๋‹ค ํฌ๊ณ , ์ง€์ง„์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ(217km)๋ณด๋‹ค ์ž‘์€ ๊ฐ’์œผ๋กœ์จ ์ œํ•œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋•Œ 35km๋Š” ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์œ ํšจ๋ฒ”์œ„๋กœ์จ, ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ธ 10์ดˆ ๊ฐ„ SํŒŒ๊ฐ€ ๋„๋‹ฌํ•œ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ(Fig. 1์˜ P2)๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. SํŒŒ๊ฐ€ ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ ๋„๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ณณ์€ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ๊ฒฝ๊ณ„์ด๋ฏ€๋กœ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ํ‰๊ท ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์— 35km์„ ๋”ํ•œ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ์™ธ๋ถ€์˜ ์ง€์—ญ์ด ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์œ ํšจ๋ฒ”์œ„์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•œ๋‹ค.

3. ์‹œํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋ถ„์„

3.1 ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€(Coverage)

Fig. 4์˜ ๋…น์ƒ‰ ์˜์—ญ์— ์†ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ง€์ ์€ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ 30km ๋‚ด 4๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์œ ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๋ฉฐ, ๋…น์ƒ‰ ์˜์—ญ ์™ธ์˜ ์ง€์—ญ์€ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ์œ ํšจํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์ง€์—ญ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. 2020๋…„ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์œ ํšจํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ์€ ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์˜ 55.47%์— ์ด๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ๋ถ์œ„ 36~37ยฐN์˜ ์„œํ•ด์•ˆ๊ณผ ๋™ํ•ด์•ˆ ๋ฐ ๊ทธ ์ธ์ ‘์˜์—ญ์—๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์ด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ, ์ง€์ง„ ์žฌ๋‚œ ๋Œ€์‘์— ์ทจ์•ฝํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

Fig. 4.

The Detectable Area for P-Wave Within 5sec and Metropolitan Cities in Korea

Figure_KSCE_38_3_07_F4.jpg

Fig. 5๋Š” ๋„ ๋‹จ์œ„์˜ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง์˜ ์กฐ๋ฐ€๋„๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ๋‹จ์œ„๋ฉด์  ๋‹น ์ธ์ ‘ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. Fig. 4์—์„œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€์— ํฌํ•จ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์˜์—ญ์€ ๋ถ์œ„ 36~37ยฐN ์‚ฌ์ด์—์„œ ์„œํ•ด์™€ ์ธ์ ‘ํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ, 36~37ยฐN ์‚ฌ์ด์—์„œ ๋™ํ•ด์™€ ์ธ์ ‘ํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€์ „๊ด‘์—ญ์‹œ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋ถ์ชฝ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋™๊ฒฝ 128ยฐN ๊ทผ์ฒ˜์˜ ์ง€์—ญ์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ฐ Fig. 5์˜ ์ถฉ์ฒญ๋‚จ๋„(CCN)์™€ ์ „๋ผ๋ถ๋„(JLB), ๊ฒฝ์ƒ๋ถ๋„(GSB), ์ถฉ์ฒญ๋ถ๋„(CCB)์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ถฉ์ฒญ๋‚จ๋„, ์ถฉ์ฒญ๋ถ๋„ ๋ฐ ์ „๋ผ๋ถ๋„๋Š” ํƒ€ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ์— ๋น„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง ์กฐ๋ฐ€๋„๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ด ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๊ฐ€ ํ™•๋ณด๋˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค. ํ•œํŽธ ๊ฒฝ์ƒ๋ถ๋„์˜ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง ์กฐ๋ฐ€๋„๋Š” ์ถฉ์ฒญ๋‚จ๋„, ์ถฉ์ฒญ๋ถ๋„ ๋ฐ ์ „๋ผ๋ถ๋„์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๋†’์Œ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ ์€ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์ƒ๋ถ๋„์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ๋ฐฐ์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€๊ตฌ๊ด‘์—ญ์‹œ ๋ฐ ์šธ์‚ฐ๊ด‘์—ญ์‹œ ์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ€์ง‘๋œ ํ˜•ํƒœ๋ฅผ ์ง€๋‹ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค(Fig. 2). ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง ์กฐ๋ฐ€๋„์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๋ถ„ํฌ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ค€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ด๋ฉฐ ๋”๋ถˆ์–ด ๊ด‘์—ญ์‹œ๋ฅผ ํ–ฅํ•˜์—ฌ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ๋ฐฐ์น˜๊ฐ€ ์ง‘์ค‘๋˜๋Š” ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๋ถ„ํฌ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์นœ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

Fig. 5.

Seismic Accelerometer Density

Figure_KSCE_38_3_07_F56.jpg

Fig. 6์€ ์ปค๋„ ๋ฐ€๋„ ๋ถ„์„์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๋„์ถœํ•œ 2016๋…„ ๊ฒฝ์ฃผ ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐ 1978๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2013๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๋‚จ๋ถ€์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ง€์ง„์˜ ์ง„์•™ ๋ฐ€๋„ ๋ถ„ํฌ๋ฅผ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€์™€ ์ค‘์ฒฉํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์ปค๋„ ๋ฐ€๋„ ๋ถ„์„์˜ ์ปค๋„ ํญ์€(Park, 2007)์—์„œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•œ 50km๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋ถ์œ„ 36.5ยฐN ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์ง€๋ฐฉ๊ณผ ๋™ํ•ด์•ˆ์„ ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ง„์•™์˜ ์œ„์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ€์ง‘๋œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•์ธ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ํ•ด๋‹น ์ง€์—ญ ๋‚ด์—๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์ฃผ, ๊ณ„๋ฃก์‚ฐ, ์†๋ฆฌ์‚ฐ, ๊ฐ€์•ผ์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ๋•์œ ์‚ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์ด ์œ„์น˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(Fig. 7). ์ด ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›๋“ค์€ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ์œ„์น˜์—์„œ ์ง€์ง„์ด ์žฌ๋ฐœํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์—ฌ ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ฒฝ์ฃผ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ๋ถ์„œ๋ถ€์ง€์—ญ, ๊ณ„๋ฃก์‚ฐ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์€ ๊ณต์› ์„œ๋ถ€ ์ง€์—ญ ์ „๋ฐ˜, ์†๋ฆฌ์‚ฐ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์€ ๋ถ๋ถ€ ๋ฐ ์„œ๋ถ€์ง€์—ญ, ๊ฐ€์•ผ์‚ฐ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์€ ์„œ๋ถ€ ๋ฐ ๋‚จ๋ถ€์ง€์—ญ, ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ๋•์œ ์‚ฐ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์€ ๊ณต์› ์„œ๋ถ€ ๋ฐ ๋™๋ถ€์ง€์—ญ์— ์šฐ์„ ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฐ์น˜๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์ด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ์— ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฐ์น˜ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์ธ๊ทผ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ์กฐ๋ฐ€๋„์™€ ๊ณ ๋ฅธ ๋ฐฐ์น˜๋ฅผ ์œ ๋„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ์ฆ๋Œ€์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

Fig. 6.

Superimposition of the Detectable area for P-Wave Within 5sec (Hatched) and the Density of Earthquakes in South Korea (Contoured)

Figure_KSCE_38_3_07_F6.jpg
Fig. 7.

Detectable area for P-Wave Within 5sec by Regional System (Grey-Colored area) Superimposed Upon National Parks

Figure_KSCE_38_3_07_F7.jpg

3.2 ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ๋ฐฉ์œ„๋ณ„ ์ง€์ง„ ๋Œ€์‘ ์ทจ์•ฝ์„ฑ ๋ถ„์„

์•ž์„  ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์—์„œ ํ™•์ธ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋“ฏ, ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น ์œ ํšจ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ์ง€์—ญ์  ๋ถˆ๊ท ํ˜•์€ ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๋‚ด ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์‹œ ์žฌ๋‚œ ๋Œ€์‘ ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฉ์œ„๋ณ„๋กœ ์ƒ์ดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•œ๋‹ค. Fig. 8์€ ๊ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ์ค‘์‹ฌ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ, ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์‹œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ํ™•๋ณด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ณต์›์˜ ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ๋ณ„ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„(Taction)์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ธ๋‹ค. ์žฅ๋ฏธ ๋„ํ‘œ(Rose diagram)๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์„ ํ†ต๊ณผํ•˜๋Š” ์ž์˜ค์„ ์„ ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์ง„ ์ „ํŒŒ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ๊ฐ(Bearing angle)์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋•Œ ๋„ํ‘œ ๋‚ด ์„ฑ๋ถ„์˜ ๋ฐ˜์ง€๋ฆ„์€ Taction์˜ ํฌ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๋ฉฐ, ๋„ํ‘œ ์™ธ๊ณฝ์˜ ๋‹ค์ด์•„๋ชฌ๋“œํ˜• ํ‘œ์‹์€ ์ฃผ์š” ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์œ„์น˜๋ฅผ ํ–ฅํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ธ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋‚ด๋ฅ™ ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ์ž ์žฌ์  ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ๋งŒ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์˜€๊ธฐ์— ์ฃผ์™•์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ํƒœ์•ˆํ•ด์•ˆ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ํ•ด์•ˆ ๊ณต์›์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ํ•ด์ƒ ์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ํ™•๋ณด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์žฌ๋‚œ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ ๋ฐฉ์œ„๋ณ„๋กœ ์ฐจ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค. ์†๋ฆฌ์‚ฐ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ(Fig. 8(b) - 7) ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ์„œ์ชฝ๊ณผ ๋™์ชฝ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์˜ ์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์žฌ๋‚œ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ์œ„์— ๋น„ํ•ด ํ˜„์ €ํžˆ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•์ธ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ์„œ๋ถ€์™€ ๋™๋ถ€์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค(Fig. 8(a) - 7). ๋ถํ•œ์‚ฐ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์€ ์™ธ๋ถ€๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ „ํŒŒํ•ด ์˜ค๋Š” ์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํ™•๋ณด ์ƒํƒœ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ๋‚ฎ์€ ํŽธ์ด๋‹ค(Fig. 8(b) - 15). ํŠนํžˆ ์ง„๋ถ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ๊ณ„ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ 120ยฐ~150ยฐ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์€ ์ฃผ์š” ์ง€์ง„์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ์„ ํ–ฅํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ๊ณผ ์ผ์น˜ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ํ‰๊ท  ์ง€์ง„ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ํ˜„์ €ํžˆ ๋‚ฎ๋‹ค. ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ ์กฐ๋ฐ€๋„๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์€ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋„ ๋‚ด๋ถ€์— ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•ด๋‹น ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์˜ ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์ง€์—ญ์ธ ์ถฉ์ฒญ๋ถ๋„ ๋ถ๋ถ€์™€ ๊ฒฝ์ƒ๋ถ๋„ ๋ถ๋ถ€์— ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ์น˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค(Fig. 8(a) - 15). ์™ธ๋ถ€๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ „ํŒŒ๋˜์–ด ์˜ค๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ํŒŒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์†๋ฆฌ์‚ฐ๊ณผ ๋ถํ•œ์‚ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ํƒ๋ฐฉ๊ฐ์„ ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์–ธ๊ธ‰๋œ ๋ฐฉ์œ„์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ์ฆ์„คํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

Fig. 8.

Rose Diagram about the Variation of Average Time for the Protective Action with Bearing Angles

Figure_KSCE_38_3_07_F8.jpg

4. ๊ฒฐ๋ก  ๋ฐ ํ† ์˜

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์กด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด 10์ดˆ ๋‚ด๋กœ ๋‹จ์ถ•๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์ด ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ํšจ์šฉ์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ •๋Ÿ‰์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ ‘๊ทผํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ๋ชจ์ƒ‰ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋‚ด๋ฅ™ ์ž„์˜์˜ ์ง€์ ์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์ƒ์˜ ์ง€์ง„์ด ๊ด€์ธก์‹œ๊ฐ„ 5์ดˆ ๋‚ด์— 4๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ด€์ธก ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ์ง€๋ฅผ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ž์ฒด ๋ถ„์„ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ž„์˜์˜ ์ง€์ ์ด ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์š”๊ตฌ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ ๋งŒ์กฑ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ํŒ๋ณ„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๋ถ„์„ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋Š” ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์˜ 55.47%์— ์ด๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๋ถ„ํฌ๋Š” ๊ฐ ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง์˜ ์กฐ๋ฐ€๋„์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ขŒ์šฐ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ, ๋Œ€์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด‘์—ญ์‹œ์˜ ์กด์žฌ ์œ ๋ฌด๊ฐ€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง์˜ ๋ฐฐ์น˜์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์นจ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€์—๋„ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์นœ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค.

์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€์™€ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ๋น„๊ตํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋ถ์œ„ 36.5ยฐN ๋‚ด๋ฅ™ ์ง€์—ญ๊ณผ ๊ฒฝ๋‚จ ๋™ํ•ด์•ˆ ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ ๋‘ ์˜์—ญ์ด ์ค‘์ฒฉ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์˜์—ญ์€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง์„ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ „๋ฐฉ ํƒ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์ด ๋ฐœํœ˜๋  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ํ•ด๋‹น ์˜์—ญ์— ํฌํ•จ๋œ ๊ฒฝ์ฃผ, ๊ณ„๋ฃก์‚ฐ, ์†๋ฆฌ์‚ฐ, ๊ฐ€์•ผ์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ๋•์œ ์‚ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›๋“ค์—๋Š” ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ํ†ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๋„์ถœํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ์ž„์˜์˜ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์—์„œ ์ „ํŒŒ๋˜์–ด ์˜ค๋Š” ์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์ด ํ™•๋ณดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๋ฐฉ์œ„๋ณ„๋กœ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋น„๊ต ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋ถํ•œ์‚ฐ์€ ์ธ๊ทผ ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๋ง ์กฐ๋ฐ€๋„๊ฐ€ ๋†’์•„ ํ•ด๋‹น ์ง€์—ญ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€์— ํฌํ•จ๋˜๋ฉฐ ํ˜„์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์€ ๋†’์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋˜๋‚˜ ์™ธ๋ถ€๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ „ํŒŒํ•ด ์˜ค๋Š” ์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ‰๊ท  ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ ํ˜„์ €ํžˆ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๊ฐ€ ํ™•๋ณด๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ์™ธ๋ถ€ ์ง€์—ญ์— ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ์ฆ์„คํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ณต์‹œ๋œ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ์œ„์น˜๋ฅผ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ 2020๋…„ ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ์˜ ๋กœ๋“œ๋งต์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์™€ ์ผ์น˜ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. 2017๋…„ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ์›์˜ โ€˜๊ธฐ์ƒ์˜ˆ๋ณด ๋ฐ ์ง€์ง„ํ†ต๋ณด์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ์šด์˜์‹คํƒœ ๊ณต๊ฐœ๋ฌธโ€™์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ์€ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ์ด๊ฒฉ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ๋“ฑ์„ ๊ฒ€ํ†  ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์ฑ„ ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋‚˜๋ผ ๋ฉด์ ์„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๊ฐ„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ด๊ฒฉ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ(18ใŽž)์˜ ์ œ๊ณฑ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด ์ด 314๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฐ์ถœํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ 314๊ฐœ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋กœ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก๋ง์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์„ ์™„๋ฃŒํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„ ํ•ด์•ˆ ๋ฐ ์ผ๋ถ€ ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์ง€์—ญ(๊ตญ๋‚ด ๋ฉด์ ์˜ ์•ฝ 20%)์—์„œ ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๊ณต๋ฐฑ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž„์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ ์œ„์น˜์˜ ์ค‘๋ณต์„ฑ๊ณผ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ์ƒํƒœ ๋ฐ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ํฌ๋งท ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ๋ฏธํก์—์„œ ๊ธฐ์ธํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” 180์—ฌ๊ฐœ์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์ง€์—ญ์˜ 44.53% (๋‚ด๋ฅ™ ์ง€์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€: 55.47%)๊ฐ€ ์ง€์ง„๊ด€์ธก๊ณต๋ฐฑ์ž„์ด ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ ์œ„์น˜์ •๋ณด ํ™•๋ณด๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ƒ๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ํ•œ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋ณด๋‹ค ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

ํ•œํŽธ, ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜ ์ƒ์—์„œ ํ™œ์šฉํ•œ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ์˜ ๋ชจ๋ธ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์บ˜๋ฆฌํฌ๋‹ˆ์•„ ๋ฐ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ตญ๋‚ด์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๋‚จ๋ถ€ ์ง€๊ฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ ๋ชจ๋ธ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค. ๋”๋ถˆ์–ด ์‹ค์ œ ์ง„์•™ ์œ„์น˜ ๊ฒฐ์ • ์‹œ ๊ด€์ธก๋ฐฉ์ •์‹ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๊ธฐํ•˜์กฐ๊ฑด์ด ํ•ด์˜ ์ •ํ™•์„ฑ ๋ฐ ์‹ ์†์„ฑ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ์ด๋Š” ์ธก๋Ÿ‰์—์„œ์˜ GDOP (Geometric Dilution Of Precision)์™€ ์œ ์‚ฌํ•˜๋‹ค. ํ–ฅํ›„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•  ๋•Œ ์ธ๊ทผ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋“ค๊ณผ ์ง„์•™ ์œ„์น˜ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ GDOP๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋ณด๋‹ค ์‹ ๋ขฐ์„ฑ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

2016๋…„ ๊ฒฝ์ฃผ ์ง€์ง„์„ ๊ณ„๊ธฐ๋กœ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ง€์ง„์˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๊ณผ ์•ˆ์ •์„ฑ ํ™•๋ณด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ธ์‹์˜ ์ „ํ™˜์ด ์ œ๊ณ ๋œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ โ€œ์žฌ๋‚œ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์ฑ…์ž„๊ธฐ๊ด€์˜ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ ์—ฐ์†์„ฑ ๊ณ„ํš ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝโ€ ํ•ญ๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ ๋ฒ•๋ น์ด 2017๋…„ ์‹œํ–‰๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์› ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ณต๋‹จ์€ ์ง€์ง„ ๋“ฑ์˜ ์žฌ๋‚œ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ๋„ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์ด ์ง€์†๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ์œ ๋„ํ•˜๋Š” ์žฌ๋‚œ ๋Œ€์‘ ์ฒด๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฐœ์„  ์š”๊ตฌ์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•œ ์ƒํƒœ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์š”๊ตฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ์„œ ๊ธฐ์กด ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ๊ณผ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•œ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์ฒด๊ณ„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์„ ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ๊ฐ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๋„์ž…์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜์—ฌ๊ธˆ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ํšจ์šฉ์„ ์ •๋Ÿ‰์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ง€์ง„ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๋‹จ์ถ•์‹œํ‚ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ธ๊ทผ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ๋ถ„ํฌ์— ๊ฐœ์„ ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์„ ์„ ๋ณ„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์ ์ธ ๊ฐœ์„  ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›์€ ํƒ๋ฐฉ๋กœ์˜ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ง€์ง„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์‹œ ํƒ๋ฐฉ๊ฐ๋“ค์˜ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ง€์ฒด๋˜๊ธฐ ์‰ฝ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋‹จ์ถ•๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์œ ์‚ฌ ์‹œ ํƒ๋ฐฉ๊ฐ์ด ๋‹จ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ํ™•๋ณด๊ฐ€ ์„ ํ–‰๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ํƒ๋ฐฉ๊ฐ์„ ์ด๊ณณ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ๋„ํ•  ์œ„์น˜์ •๋ณด ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์•ˆ๋‚ด ์ฒด๊ณ„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์ด ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ ธ์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค.

5. ํ•ด์™ธ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ

Zollo et al.(2014)์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ํ˜„์žฌ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์šด์˜๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์บ˜๋ฆฌํฌ๋‹ˆ์•„, ๋ฉ•์‹œ์ฝ”, ์ผ๋ณธ ๋“ฑ์ด ํ•ด๋‹นํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์บ˜๋ฆฌํฌ๋‹ˆ์•„์˜ SharkAlert์€ ๋…๋ฆฝ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ์„ธ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ(Elarms, Onsite, VS)์„ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€ ํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฅผ ๋งˆ์นœ ์ƒํƒœ์ด๋‹ค. Elarms๋Š” California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN)์— ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„ ๋‘” ์ „๋ฐฉํƒ์ง€ํ˜• ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด๋‹ค. Onsite๋Š” Kanamori (2005)์—์„œ ์ œ์•ˆ๋œ ฯ„c-Pd algorithm์— ๊ธฐ์ดˆํ•œ ๋‹จ์ผ์„ผ์„œํ˜• ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด๋ฉฐ, Virtual Seismologist (VS)๋Š” Bayesian ํ™•๋ฅ ๋ก ์— ๊ธฐ์ดˆํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก๋ง์˜ ์œ„์น˜์ •๋ณด ๋ฐ Health์ƒํƒœ, ์ง€์—ญ ์žฌํ•ด๋„ ๋“ฑ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ ์ •๋ณด์™€ ์‹ค์ œ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก์—์„œ ๋„์ถœ๋œ constraints์˜ ์กฐํ•ฉ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ง€์ง„์˜ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ๋ฐ ์œ„์น˜, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  Peak Ground ๋ถ„ํฌ๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด๋‹ค. SharkAlert์€ ํ˜„์žฌ ์ˆ˜ ์ดˆ์—์„œ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ ์ดˆ ๋‚ด์— ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋ฉ•์‹œ์ฝ”์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ธ SASMEX ํ‰๊ท  20์ดˆ ๋‚ด์— ๊ฒฝ๋ณด๋ฐœ๋ น์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋ฉฐ 60์ดˆ์˜ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ์ˆ˜์ฐจ๋ก€์˜ ๊ฐ•์ง„์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์‹ ๋ขฐ์„ฑ ๋ฐ ํšจ์šฉ์„ฑ์ด ์ž…์ฆ๋œ ์ƒํƒœ์ด๋‹ค. SASMEX์—์„œ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” 60์ดˆ์˜ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๋ฌด์—‡๋ณด๋‹ค ๋ฉ•์‹œ์ฝ”์˜ ์ง€๋ฆฌํ•™์  ํŠน์ง•์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์ด์œ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค. ์œ„ํ˜‘์ด ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฐ•์ง„์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด ํ™˜ํƒœํ‰์–‘ ์กฐ์‚ฐ๋Œ€์™€ ์ธ์ ‘ํ•œ ํ•ด์•ˆ์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์—ฌ ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํŒŒ๋˜๋Š” ํ˜•ํƒœ๋กœ ์ง€์ง„ํŒŒ๊ฐ€ ์ธ๊ตฌ ๊ฑฐ์ฃผ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋Œ€๋žต 320km์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ด๋™ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ํ•ด์•ˆ์˜ ์ „๋ฐฉํƒ์ง€ํ˜• ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ์ •์ƒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ๋ น๋˜๋ฉด PํŒŒ์™€ SํŒŒ์˜ ์†๋„ ์ฐจ์ด์— ์˜ํ•ด ๋‚ด๋ฅ™ ๋„์‹ฌ์ง€์— 60์ดˆ์˜ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ํ™•๋ณด๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ์ง„์•™์œ„์น˜์™€ ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ๊ฒฉ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด์žฅ๋˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ด์ƒ์ ์ธ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ผ๋ณธ์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ธ EEW๋Š” ์•ฝ 1000๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋œ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ด€์ธก๋ง์— ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„ ๋‘๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ํ•œํŽธ, ์ผ๋ณธ ๋ฐฉ์žฌ๊ณผํ•™๊ธฐ์ˆ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ(NIED)์—์„œ EEW์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ Negative warning time์ด ๋ณด๊ณ ๋œ ๋ฐ” ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ์ผ๋ณธ์˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ ๊ฑฐ์ฃผ์ง€์—ญ์ด ์ง„์•™ ์œ„์น˜์™€ 30km ์ด์ƒ ๋–จ์–ด์ง€์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ์ผ์ฐ์ด ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ํ•œ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํฌ์ฐฉํ•œ ์ผ๋ณธ์—์„œ๋Š” ํ˜„์žฅ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ํ•œ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์— ํˆฌ์žํ•ด์™”์œผ๋ฉฐ ํ•ด๋‹น ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์ด ํƒ‘์žฌ๋œ Compact UrEDAS์™€ ๊ทธ ํ›„์† ๋ชจ๋ธ์ธ FREQL์„ ๊ธฐ์กด ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ์ ์ฐจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์„ค์น˜ํ•ด ๋‚˜๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ FREQL์€ P-wave ํƒ์ง€ ํ›„ 1์ดˆ ๋‚ด์— ์ง€์ง„ Parameter ๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ๋ฐœ๋ น์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ƒํƒœ์ด๋‹ค.

2017๋…„ 11์›” ํฌํ•ญ์ง€์ง„ ๋‹น์‹œ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ์€ ์•ฝ 30์ดˆ ๋‚ด ์ง€์ง„๊ฒฝ๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ๋ นํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ณต์‹์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœ๋ น๋œ ์ฒซ ์ง€์ง„ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•  ๋•Œ ์ƒ๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋œ ํ•ด์™ธ์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ๋ฐ€์ ‘ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์— ๋‹ค๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋Œ€์‘์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์œ ๋„ํ•˜๊ธฐ์—” ์—ญ๋ถ€์กฑ์ด๋ฉฐ ์‹œ๋ฏผ๋“ค์˜ ํ–‰๋™์š”๋ น ์—ญ์‹œ ๋ฏธ์ˆ™ํ•œ ์ƒํƒœ์ด๋ฏ€๋กœ ํ–ฅํ›„ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์‘์ฒด๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฐœ์„ ์ด ์ˆ˜๋ฐ˜๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ์ง„์•™ ๋ถ„ํฌ ์–‘์ƒ์€ ์ผ๋ณธ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ด ์ธ๊ตฌ์ง€์—ญ๊ณผ ์ง„์•™์œ„์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ์ผ์น˜ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฆฝ๊ณต์›๋งŒ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋‚˜ ์ฃผ์š”์‹œ์„ค์— ํ˜„์žฅ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ์ง€์ง„ ์กฐ๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์ด ์ถ”๊ฐ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ•„์š”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

References

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Allen, R. M., Gasparini, P., Kamigaichi, O. and Bรถse, M. (2009). โ€œThe status of earthquake early warning around the world: an introductory overview.โ€ Seismol. Res. Lett., Vol. 80, No. 5, pp. 682-693.10.1785/gssrl.80.5.682Allen, R. M., Gasparini, P., Kamigaichi, O. and Bรถse, M. (2009). โ€œThe status of earthquake early warning around the world: an introductory overview.โ€ Seismol. Res. Lett., Vol. 80, No. 5, pp. 682-693.DOI
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Chi, H. (2016). โ€œCurrent state and implementation of earthquake early warning system (EEWS).โ€ Korea Appraisal Board, Seoul, South Korea, Vol. 102 (in Korean).Chi, H. (2016). โ€œCurrent state and implementation of earthquake early warning system (EEWS).โ€ Korea Appraisal Board, Seoul, South Korea, Vol. 102 (in Korean).Google Search
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