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Mobile QR Code QR CODE : Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers

  1. ์ •ํšŒ์›โ€ค์ธํ•˜๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ํ† ๋ชฉ๊ณตํ•™๊ณผ ๋ฐ•์‚ฌ๊ณผ์ • (INHA Universityโ€คtgb611@naver.com)
  2. ๊น€ํฌ์‹œ์ฒญ ์ฃผ๋ฌด๊ด€ (GIMPO City Hallโ€คljh9252@naver.com)
  3. ์ข…์‹ ํšŒ์›โ€ค์ธํ•˜๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ํ† ๋ชฉ๊ณตํ•™๊ณผ ์ •๊ต์ˆ˜ (INHA Universityโ€คsookim@inha.ac.kr)
  4. ๊ต์‹ ์ €์žโ€ค์ธํ•˜๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ํ† ๋ชฉ๊ณตํ•™๊ณผ ๋ฐ•์‚ฌ๊ณผ์ • (Corresponding Authorโ€คINHA Universityโ€คfe982@hanmail.net)



๋น„์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒ˜๊ณ„ํš, ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ, ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด, ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ
Emergency Action Plan (EAP), Continuous rainfalls, Dam break, Optimal shelter

1. ์„œ ๋ก 

์ด์ƒ๊ธฐํ›„๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๊ทนํ•œ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์˜ ๋ฐœ์ƒ๋นˆ๋„๊ฐ€ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. 2022๋…„ ์ด์ƒ๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ(Korea Meteorological Administration, 2023)์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ํŒŒํ‚ค์Šคํƒ„์—์„œ๋Š” ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์—ฌ 1,739๋ช… ์‚ฌ๋ง, 12,867๋ช… ๋ถ€์ƒ ๋“ฑ์˜ ์ธ๋ช… ํ”ผํ•ด์™€ 15์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์ค‘๊ตญ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ค‘ยท๋‚จ๋ถ€์ง€์—ญ์— ๊ทนํ•œ๊ฐ•์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์—ฌ ๋„์‹œ ๊ณณ๊ณณ์ด ์นจ์ˆ˜๋˜๊ณ  ์‚ฐ์‚ฌํƒœ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์—ฌ ์•ฝ 200๋งŒ๋ช…์˜ ์ด์žฌ๋ฏผ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋‚˜๋ผ์—์„œ๋„ 2022๋…„ 8์›” ์ดˆ์— ์„œ์šธ ๋‚จ๋ถ€์ง€์—ญ์„ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋‹น 100 mm๊ฐ€ ๋„˜๋Š” ๊ทนํ•œ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ํ•˜์ฒœ ๋ฒ”๋žŒ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ง€ํ•˜์ฒ ์—ญ๊ณผ ๋„๋กœ ๋“ฑ์ด ์นจ์ˆ˜๋˜์–ด ๋งŽ์€ ์žฌ์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ์ธ๋ช… ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ „์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์ธ ๊ทนํ•œ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ตญ๋‚ด์˜ ๋Œ ๋…ธํ›„ํ™” ๋ฌธ์ œ์™€ ํ•ฉ์ณ์ ธ ๋Œ์˜ ์•ˆ์ „์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์šฐ๋ ค๋ฅผ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตญํ† ์•ˆ์ „๊ด€๋ฆฌ์›์—์„œ ๋ฐœ๊ฐ„ํ•œ 2021 ์‹œ์„ค๋ฌผ ํ†ต๊ณ„์—ฐ๋ณด(Kim, 2022)์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ค€๊ณต ๋œ์ง€ 30๋…„ ์ด์ƒ ๋œ ๋Œ์€ 389๊ฐœ์†Œ๋กœ ์ „์ฒด ๋Œ์˜ 60% ์ด์ƒ์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์‹œ์„ค๋ฌผ ์•ˆ์ „๋„ ๋“ฑ๊ธ‰์—์„œ ์˜ค์ง 10๊ฐœ ๋Œ๋งŒ์ด A๋“ฑ๊ธ‰์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜๋‹ค. ์‹ค์ œ 2002๋…„ ํƒœํ’ ๋ฃจ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๋ฅ™ํ•˜์˜€์„ ๋•Œ, ๊ทนํ•œ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ์žฅํ˜„์ €์ˆ˜์ง€์™€ ๋™๋ง‰์ €์ˆ˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, 2014๋…„์—๋Š” ๊ดด์—ฐ ์ €์ˆ˜์ง€, 2018๋…„์—๋Š” ๋ชจ์›์ €์ˆ˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ง‘์ค‘ํ˜ธ์šฐ์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์œ„ํ—˜๊ด€๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ ๋น„์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒ˜๊ณ„ํš(Emergency Action Plan, EAP) ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝ์˜ ์ค‘์š”์„ฑ์ด ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.

ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ตญ๋‚ด์—์„œ๋Š” ใ€Œ์ €์ˆ˜์ง€ยท๋Œ์˜ ์•ˆ์ „๊ด€๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ ์žฌํ•ด์˜ˆ๋ฐฉ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๋ฒ•๋ฅ  ์ œ3์กฐ(์ €์ˆ˜์ง€โ€ค๋Œ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์ž์˜ ์ฑ…๋ฌด)ใ€, ใ€Œ์ž์—ฐ์žฌํ•ด๋Œ€์ฑ…๋ฒ• ์ œ37์กฐ(๊ฐ์ข… ์‹œ์„ค๋ฌผ ๋“ฑ์˜ ๋น„์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒ˜๊ณ„ํš ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝ)ใ€๋“ฑ์— ๊ทผ๊ฑฐํ•˜์—ฌ ์ €์ˆ˜์ง€ยท๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋“ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ EAP๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. EAP์—์„œ๋Š” ์„ค๊ณ„๋นˆ๋„ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๊ทนํ•œ๊ฐ•์šฐ ์กฐ๊ฑด์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ๊ฐ•์šฐ ๋˜๋Š” ์ง€์ง„์— ์˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ €์ˆ˜์ง€ยท๋Œ ๋“ฑ์ด ๋ถ•๊ดด๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋งŒ ๊ณ„ํš์ด ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋‹จ์ผ ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์ธํ•œ ์นจ์ˆ˜ ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตญ๋‚ด์— ๋ง‰๋Œ€ํ•œ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œํ‚จ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ ์‚ฌ๋ก€๋กœ๋Š” 2019๋…„ ํƒœํ’ โ€˜๋ง๋งโ€™, โ€˜ํƒ€ํŒŒโ€™, โ€˜๋ฏธํƒโ€™, 2020๋…„ ํƒœํ’ โ€˜๋งˆ์ด์‚ญโ€™, โ€˜ํ•˜์ด์„ โ€™ ๋“ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์—์„œ ์„ ํ–‰ํ˜ธ์šฐ๋Š” ํ† ์–‘์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ถ„ํ•จ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œ์ผœ ์ด์–ด์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์˜ ์œ ํšจ์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚จ๋‹ค. ์œ ํšจ์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ง์ ‘์œ ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋กœ ์ด์–ด์ ธ ๋ฌด๊ฐ•์šฐ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์ดํ›„์— ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‹จ์ผ ์ง‘์ค‘ํ˜ธ์šฐ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ํฐ ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๋ž˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ์ด ์—†์–ด ์ธ์œ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์กฐ์ ˆํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ์ž์—ฐ์›”๋ฅ˜ํ˜•๋Œ์ด๋‚˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ๋ถ€์กฑํ•œ ๋Œ์— ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ํ˜ธ์šฐ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ๋†’์•„์ง„ ์ƒํƒœ์—์„œ ์—ฐ์ด์–ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋Œ ์›”๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์–ด ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ์œ„ํ—˜์„ฑ์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋œ๋‹ค. ํ™์ˆ˜์กฐ์ ˆ์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋Œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋„ ๋ฌดํ”ผํ•ด๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰(๋Œํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ์ง€์ ์—์„œ ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋„๋ก ๊ณ„ํšํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ๋Œ์—์„œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฌผ์˜ ์–‘)(Kwon and Shim, 1997)์ด์ƒ์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€์— ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. 2022๋…„ ํ•ฉ์ฒœ๋Œ์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ํ•ฉ์ฒœ๋Œ์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰์ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ํ•ฉ์ฒœ๊ตฐ ์œจ๊ณก๋ฉด, ์Œ์ฑ…๋ฉด ๋“ฑ์— ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. EAP ๋‚ด ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ • ์‹œ์— ๋Œ€์ƒ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ์žฌ๋‚œ์ด๋ ฅ(์ตœ๊ทผ 10๋…„๊ฐ„ ์ด์žฌ๋ฏผ์ˆ˜, ์žฌํ•ด๋ฐœ์ƒ๋นˆ๋„, ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”์  ์ƒํ™ฉ)์„ ๊ฒ€ํ† ํ•˜์—ฌ ํ•™๊ต, ๊ด€๊ณต์„œ ๋“ฑ์˜ ๊ณต๊ณต๊ธฐ๊ด€์„ ์šฐ์„ ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋กœ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ • ์‹œ์— ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ณต๊ฐ„์˜ ์ž…์ง€๋‚˜ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ๋“ฑ์˜ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํŠน์„ฑ๋“ค์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ–‰๋™์š”๋ นยท๊ด€๋ จ ๋ฒ•๊ทœ ๋“ฑ์ด ๋ถˆํ™•์‹คํ•œ ์‹ค์ •์ด๋‹ค(Kwon et al., 2015). ์ฆ‰, ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ์˜ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํŠน์„ฑ์„ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ๋™์ผํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ •๋Ÿ‰์ ์ธ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ • ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋ก ์ด ๋ถ€์žฌํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด๋‹ค.

๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด์™€ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” Fread(1988) ์ดํ›„ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž๋“ค(Wetmore and Fread, 1981; Bozkus and Kasap, 1998; Zhou et al., 2004; Shakibaeinia and Yee, 2011; Marsooli and Wu, 2014; Munoz and Constantinescu, 2020)์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋ฅผ ๋ชจ์˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจํ˜• ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๊พธ์ค€ํžˆ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด DAMBRK, BREACH, SMPDBK, FLDWAV ๋“ฑ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ชจ์˜ ๋ชจํ˜•๋“ค์ด ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด์™ธ์—๋„ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๊ทœ๋ชจ ๋ฐ ๋ถ•๊ดด์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์˜ˆ์ธก(MacDonald and Langridge-Monopolis, 1984; Bathurst and Ashiq, 1998; Fagherazzi et al., 2004; LaRocque et al., 2013; Li et al., 2020)ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด์„œ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ํ”ผํ•ด ์–‘์ƒ์„ ๋ถ„์„(Lodhi and Agrawal, 2012; Soleymani et al., 2015; Day, 2016; Azeez et al., 2020; Bilali et al., 2022)ํ•˜๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋“ฑ์ด ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์žฌ๋‚œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋กœ๋Š” ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์„ธ๋ถ€์ง€ํ‘œ ์„ ์ • ๋ฐ ๊ฐ ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ(Choi et al., 2012; Nappi and Souza, 2015; Trivedi, 2018; Han, 2019), ์„ ์ •๋œ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋“ค์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์ตœ์ ์˜ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ(Nappi et al., 2019; Ma et al., 2019; Song et al., 2019; Kim et al., 2020a; Senik and Uzun, 2021; Lee et al., 2022), ๊ธฐ์กด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋˜ ์ด๋™์†๋„, ๋„๋กœ๋ง, ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋“ฑ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์—ฌ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ •์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ(Sanyal and Lu, 2009; Chang and Kim, 2014; Choi et al., 2019; Alam et al., 2021)๊ฐ€ ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด์ „ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์—์„œ๋„ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•œ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ฐ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ •์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค.

์ด์— ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ฐ ๋ฌดํ”ผํ•ด๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜์— ์˜ํ•ด ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€์— ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ๋“ค์„ ๋ชจ์˜ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ •์˜ํ•˜๊ณ , ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋‹จ์œ„ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๊ฐ•์šฐ-์œ ์ถœ ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๊ธฐ์ค€๊ณก์„ ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด์‹œ์˜ ์ตœ๋Œ€์ˆ˜์œ„ ๋ฐ ์ฒจ๋‘๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ฐ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜์— ์˜ํ•œ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋“ค์„ ์ •์˜ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€์˜ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ๋ณ„๋กœ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ† ์ง€ํ”ผ๋ณต๋„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฉด์ ์„ ๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋น„๊ตยท๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ๋ณ„ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ตญ๋‚ดยท์™ธ์—์„œ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋“ค์„ ์กฐ์‚ฌํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ๊ณตํ†ต์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ง€ํ‘œ๋“ค์„ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋กœ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์„ ์ •๋œ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ์™€ ๊ณ„์ธตํ™” ๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

2. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•

2.1 ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ๋ฐ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰

๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์€ ํ™•๋ฅ ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋งค์šฐ ๋‚ฎ์œผ๋‚˜, ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ดˆ๋Œ€ํ˜• ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ์œ ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•œ๋‹ค(Kim et al., 2020b). ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ๋Œ€๋น„ ์ˆ˜์ž์›์ ์‘๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋‹จ(Climate Change Adaptation for Water resources, CCAW)์—์„œ๋Š” 3๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ข…๋ฅ˜์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ทธ ์ค‘์— ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์ด๋‹ค. ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•œ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋Š” ๋Œ€์ƒ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ตœ์†Œ๋ฌด๊ฐ•์šฐ์‹œ๊ฐ„(Inter-Event Time based Definition, IETD) ๊ฐ„๊ฒฉ์„ ์‚ฌ์ด์— ๋‘๊ณ  ์—ฐ์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œํ‚ด์œผ๋กœ์„œ ์ƒ์„ฑํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 2019๋…„ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ๋ถ€์—์„œ ๋ฐœ๊ฐ„ํ•œ ใ€Œํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰ ์‚ฐ์ • ํ‘œ์ค€์ง€์นจ(Bae et al., 2019)ใ€์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ์ ˆ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ตœ์†Œ๋ฌด๊ฐ•์šฐ์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ IETD ์‚ฐ์ • ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋ก  ์ค‘์—์„œ ๋ณ€๋™๊ณ„์ˆ˜๋ถ„์„(Coefficient of Variation analysis, CV analysis)์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. CV๋ถ„์„์€ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๋ฌด๊ฐ•์šฐ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„๋“ค์ด ์ง€์ˆ˜(Exponential) ๋ถ„ํฌ๋ฅผ ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•˜์— ๋ณ€๋™๊ณ„์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ 1์ด ๋˜๋Š” ์ง€์ฒด์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ IETD๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์ • ํ•œ๋‹ค(Bedient and Huber, 1988). CV๋ถ„์„ ์ด์™ธ์— IETD๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๋งŽ์ด ํ™œ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ์ž๊ธฐ์ƒ๊ด€๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋ฐœ์ƒ๊ฐœ์ˆ˜๋ถ„์„์— ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž ๊ฐœ์ธ์˜ ํŒ๋‹จ์— ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋œ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์˜ ์ˆ˜๋‚˜ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ IETD๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์ดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋นˆ๋ฒˆํ•˜๋‹ค(Joo et al., 2007; Lee and Chung, 2017).

์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์— ์ธํ•ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ ์‚ฌ์ƒ์„ ๋ชจ์˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฐ•์šฐ-์œ ์ถœ ๋ชจํ˜•์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” Kim(2018)์ด ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•œ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋‹จ์œ„ ๊ฐ•์šฐ-์œ ์ถœ ๋ชจํ˜•์ธ Consecutive Storm Event Based(ConSEB) ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ConSEB ๋ชจํ˜•์€ ๊ธฐ์กด ๊ฐ•์šฐ-์œ ์ถœ ๋ชจํ˜•๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ์ ์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ณ ์ž IETD์™€ ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋‹จ์œ„ ์ฆ๋ฐœ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•œ ์œ ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์žˆ์–ด์„œ ์šฐ์ˆ˜ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์—ˆ๋‹ค(Kim, 2018). ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋„๋‹ฌ์‹œ๊ฐ„(Time of Concentration, Tc)๊ณผ ์ €๋ฅ˜์ƒ์ˆ˜(Storage coefficient, K)๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ConSEB ๋ชจํ˜•์—์„œ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” Sabol ๊ณต์‹์€ ํ˜•์ƒ์ธ์ž(Shape factor)๊ฐ€ ์ž‘์•„์งˆ์ˆ˜๋ก Tc/K๊ฐ€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ž‘์•„์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์ด ๋งค์šฐ ์ž‘๊ฒŒ ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ์ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ณ ์ž Jeong(2006)์€ ํ˜•์ƒ์ธ์ž๊ฐ€ 0.2์ดํ•˜์ธ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋„ ํ™œ์šฉ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ •๋œ Sabol ๊ณต์‹์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Eq. (1)).

(1)
TcK=97.28(L2A)2.88+128.19+0.59

์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ K๋Š” ์ €๋ฅ˜์ƒ์ˆ˜(hr), Tc๋Š” ๋„๋‹ฌ์‹œ๊ฐ„(hr), L์€ ์œ ๋กœ์—ฐ์žฅ(km), A๋Š” ์œ ์—ญ๋ฉด์ (km2), L2A๋Š” ํ˜•์ƒ์ธ์ž์˜ ์—ญ์ˆ˜์ด๋‹ค.

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ์ง€์ •ํ•œ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ์„ธ ๊ฐœ์˜ ์ค‘๊ถŒ์—ญ ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ˜•์ƒ์ธ์ž๊ฐ€ 0.2๋ณด๋‹ค ์ž‘์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ค‘๊ถŒ์—ญ์— ์†ํ•œ 12๊ฐœ ์†Œ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ํ˜•์ƒ์ธ์ž๊ฐ€ 0.2๋ณด๋‹ค ์ž‘๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ˆ˜์ •๋œ Sabol ๊ณต์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ConSEB ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ˆ˜์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

2.2 Simplified Dam Break ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•œ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ชจ์˜

๊ณผ๊ฑฐ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํ˜„์žฌ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋ชจ์˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๋ชจํ˜•๋“ค์ด ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ชจํ˜•์œผ๋กœ๋Š” Fread(1984)๊ฐ€ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ Dam Break(DAMBRK) ๋ชจํ˜•๋ถ€ํ„ฐ, BREACH ๋ชจํ˜•, FLDWAV ๋ชจํ˜•, Simplified Dam Break(SMPDBK) ๋ชจํ˜• ๋“ฑ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋ฉฐ, Hydrologic Engineering Centerโ€™s Hydrologic Modeling System(HEC-HMS)์˜ ์ €์ˆ˜์ง€์˜ Outflow structure ์ถ”์ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ• ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  River Analysis System(HEC-RAS)์˜ Inline Structure editor ๋“ฑ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋ฅผ ๋ชจ์˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์ค‘์—์„œ SMPDBK ๋ชจํ˜•์€ 1981๋…„ Wetmore์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ชจํ˜•์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด์™€ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์‹๋“ค๊ณผ ๋ฌด์ฐจ์› ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์งง์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์•ˆ์— ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด์‹œ์˜ ์ฒจ๋‘ํ™์ˆ˜ํŒŒ์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„ ๋ฐ ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๋„๋‹ฌ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. SMPDBK ๋ชจํ˜•์€ ํ•˜์ฒœ์ค‘์‹ฌ์„  ๋ฐ ๋‹จ๋ฉด๋„, ๋Œ์ œ์›, ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋ถ€ ๋„ˆ๋น„, ๋ถ•๊ดด๋ถ€ํ˜•ํƒœ, ๋ถ•๊ดด์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋“ฑ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋“ค๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ชจ์˜๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ชจํ˜•๋“ค์— ๋น„ํ•ด์„œ ์ ์€ ์–‘์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์žฅ์ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. SMPDBK ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ชจ์˜ ๊ณผ์ •์€ 3๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋Š” ๋Œ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜์˜ ํ•˜์ฒœ ์ˆ˜๋กœ๋ฅผ ๊ท ์ผ ์ˆ˜๋กœ(Prismatic channel)๋กœ ์ •์˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ๋Œ์˜ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๋ถ•๊ดด์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ , ๊ธฐํ•˜ํ•™์  ํŠน์„ฑ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ์‹œ์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ์œ ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ , ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ๋ฌด์ฐจ์› ์ถ”์ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„(Routing curve)์˜ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋“ค์„ ์ถ”์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ด๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€์˜ ์ฒจ๋‘ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ์ฒจ๋‘ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ์ ์€ ์–‘์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ(๋Œ ์ œ์›, ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€ ํ•˜์ฒœ๋‹จ๋ฉด๋„, ๋ถ•๊ดด ํ‰๊ท ํญ, ๋ถ•๊ดด์ง€์†์‹œ๊ฐ„, ์ตœ์ข… ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ๋ถ€ ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ ๋†’์ด ๋“ฑ)์™€ ์งง์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์•ˆ์— ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋ฅผ ๋ชจ์˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ(Fig. 1) ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ชจํ˜•๊ณผ์˜ ๋ชจ์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋น„๊ต์— ์žˆ์–ด์„œ๋„ ์œ ์‚ฌํ•œ ๊ฐ’์„ ์ฃผ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(Wetmore and Fread, 1981). ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์žฅ์ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” SMPDBK ๋ชจํ˜•์€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž๋“ค์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋ฅผ ๋ชจ์˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ํ™œ์šฉ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(Paquier and Robin, 1997; Han et al., 1998; Reed and Halgre, 2011; Shahraki et al., 2012; Mahmoud et al., 2022). ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ชจ์˜๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ์ž๋ฃŒ(๋Œ ์ œ์› ๋ฐ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€ ํ•˜์ฒœ๋‹จ๋ฉด๋„ ๋“ฑ)๋งŒ ์ˆ˜์ง‘์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜์˜€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ด๋“ค ์ž๋ฃŒ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ชจ์˜๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ SMPDBK ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Fig. 1. Input Parameters of SMPDBK Model
../../Resources/KSCE/Ksce.2023.43.4.0433/fig1.png

2.3 ์ธ๋ช… ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ๋ง‰๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ •

๊ฐ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์—์„œ๋Š” ์žฌ๋‚œ์— ์˜ํ•œ ์ธ๋ช…ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ์ตœ์†Œํ™”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตญ๋‚ด ํ’์ˆ˜ํ•ด ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ •์€ ์žฌํ•ด๊ตฌํ˜ธ๋ฒ• ์ œ4์กฐ ์ œ1ํ•ญ์— ๊ทผ๊ฑฐํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹œ์žฅ, ๊ตฐ์ˆ˜, ๊ตฌ์ฒญ์žฅ์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์ธ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ • ๊ธฐ์ค€์€ ์žฌํ•ด๊ตฌํ˜ธ๊ณ„ํš ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝ ์ง€์นจ๊ณผ ์žฌํ•ด์ง€๋„ ์ž‘์„ฑ ๊ธฐ์ค€ ๋“ฑ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์ง€์นจ์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ค€(Disaster Relief division, 2021)์„ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€์นจ๋“ค์—์„œ๋Š” ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์ง€์—ญ ๋‚ด ๋„๋ณด๋กœ ์ด๋™ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์žฅ์†Œ๋“ค์„ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋กœ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์›์น™์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์นจ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ, ์นจ์ˆ˜์œ„, ์ด์šฉ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ๋ฉด์ , ๋“ฑ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์—ฌ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ American Red Cross์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ Standards for Hurricane Evacuation Shelter Selection; ARC4496, American Red Cross(2002)๋ฅผ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ • ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ์„œ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ํ™์ˆ˜ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, 100๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„ ํ™์ˆ˜์˜ˆ์ƒ์ง€์—ญ ์™ธ์ธก์— ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„ ํ™์ˆ˜์˜ˆ์ƒ์ง€์—ญ๋‚ด์— ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ”ผํ•  ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ถŒ๊ณ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์นจ์ˆ˜์ง€์ ๊ณผ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ์™€์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์—ฌ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋กœ ๊ณ ๋ฆฝ๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์€ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ •์—์„œ ์ œ์™ธ์‹œํ‚จ๋‹ค. ์ผ๋ณธ์€ ์žฌํ•ด๋Œ€์ฑ…๊ธฐ๋ณธ๋ฒ•์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜จ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ๋ฐ ์šด์˜ ์ง€์นจ((Tokyo Metropolitan Government, 2013)์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ค€์„ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ผ๋ณธ์€ ๋Œ€ํ”ผํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ ๋ฐ ๊ฐ ์‹œ์„ค์˜ ํŠน์„ฑ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ 1์ฐจ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 3์ฐจ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ฐ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ณ„๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์„ ์ • ๊ธฐ์ค€์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(Sakai and Lukner, 2013). ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์˜๊ตญ์—์„œ๋Š” Evacuation and Shelter Guidance(HM Government, 2014)๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ตญ์€ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ํŠน์ • ๊ฑด๋ฌผ์„ ์ง€์ •ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ํ˜„์žฌ์žฅ์†Œ์—์„œ์˜ ๊ณ ์ธต, ๊ณ ๊ฐ€๋„๋กœ ๋“ฑ์˜ ์•ˆ์ „์ง€์—ญ์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋™ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ถŒ์žฅํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ค‘-์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋Š” ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์ž์˜ ์›๊ฑฐ์ฃผ์‹œ์„ค๊ณผ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ๊ณณ์„ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋กœ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(Weame, 2007). ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ • ๊ธฐ์ค€์„ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ์„ธ๋ถ€์ ์ธ ์„ ์ • ๊ธฐ์ค€์—์„œ ๋‹ค์†Œ ์ฐจ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ์˜ ์ˆ˜์šฉ๊ทœ๋ชจ, ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ์˜ ์ž…์ง€์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์—ฌ ๋˜๋„๋ก ๊ณต๊ณต์‹œ์„ค๋ฌผ์„ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋กœ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ • ๊ธฐ์ค€๋“ค์„ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ 3๊ฐœ์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ์™€ 7๊ฐœ์˜ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Table 1).

Table 1. Optimal Shelter Evaluation Indicators

General

Specific Evaluation Indicators

Scale accommodation

Adequate accommodation of evacuees

Height of shelter building

Geographical conditions

Ease of access from evacuation route

Distance of shelter from stream/river

Time taken to evacuate to shelter

Type

Public building

Private institutions

๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์„ ์ •๋Ÿ‰์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ์˜ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๊ฐ’์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๊ฐ๊ฐ์˜ ํ†ต๊ณ„๋‹จ์œ„๊ฐ€ ๋‹ฌ๋ผ ์ง์ ‘์ ์ธ ๋น„๊ต๋ถ„์„์ด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋‹จ์œ„๊ฐ€ ์—†๋Š” ๋ฌด์ฐจ์› ๊ฐ’์œผ๋กœ ํ‘œ์ค€ํ™”ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์ธ ํฌ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋น„๊ตํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋“ค์„ ํ‘œ์ค€ํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ข…๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ์ค‘์—์„œ ์Šค์ผ€์ผ ์žฌ์กฐ์ •(re-scaling) ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ์ง€ํ‘œ์˜ ์ตœ๋Œ“๊ฐ’๊ณผ ์ตœ์†Ÿ๊ฐ’์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋–ค ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์—์„œ ํ•œ ๊ฐ’์ธ X๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ X์—์„œ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์˜ ์ตœ์†Ÿ๊ฐ’์„ ๋นผ๊ณ  ์ด๋ฅผ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋‚ด์˜ ์ตœ๋Œ€๊ฐ’์— ์ตœ์†Ÿ๊ฐ’์„ ๋บ€ ๊ฐ’์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด๋‹ค(Eq. (2)). ์Šค์ผ€์ผ ์žฌ์กฐ์ • ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ์Œ์ˆ˜ ๊ฐ’์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ , ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ฐ’์˜ ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ ์ง๊ด€์ ์œผ๋กœ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๊ธฐ์— ์šฉ์ดํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ํ‘œ์ค€ํ™”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์Šค์ผ€์ผ ์žฌ์กฐ์ • ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

(2)
xโˆ’xminxmaxโˆ’xmin

์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ x๋Š” ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ์˜ ๊ฐ’์ด๋ฉฐ, xmin๊ณผ xmax๋Š” ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ์˜ ์ตœ์†Ÿ๊ฐ’ ๋ฐ ์ตœ๋Œ“๊ฐ’์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค.

๊ฐ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋ณ„๋กœ ํ‘œ์ค€ํ™”๋œ ์ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์„ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์ ์ˆ˜๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜ ์‚ฐ์ •์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ณ„์ธตํ™”(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP) ๋ถ„์„๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋ณ„ ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ฐ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. AHP ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ Satty(1987)์— ์˜ํ•ด ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ์ดํ›„ ๋‹ค๊ธฐ์ค€ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •์— ๋„๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ๋ถ„์„๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์„ค๋ฌธ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ณ„์ธต์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์กฐํ™”๋œ ์š”์†Œ์˜ ์ƒ๋Œ€์  ์ค‘์š”๋„(ํ˜น์€ ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜)๋ฅผ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์ ํ•ฉํ•˜๋‹ค(Yoon et al., 2016) AHP ๋ถ„์„์€ Fig. 2์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด 4๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค.

Fig. 2. Procedure of AHP Analysis
../../Resources/KSCE/Ksce.2023.43.4.0433/fig2.png

์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ์„ ์ •๋œ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋“ค์„ ๋™์งˆ์ ์ธ ์ง‘ํ•ฉ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฐ์ง‘ํ™”ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฐฐ์—ดํ•˜๋Š” ๊ณ„์ธต๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Cho et al., 2003). ์•ž์„œ ์„ ์ •ํ•œ 7๊ฐœ์˜ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ์˜ ์ˆ˜์šฉ๊ทœ๋ชจ, ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ์˜ ์ž…์ง€์กฐ๊ฑด, ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ์˜ ๊ณต๊ณต์‹œ์„ค์—ฌ๋ถ€ ๋“ฑ 3๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋Œ€๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ์— ๋งž๊ฒŒ ๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ํ•˜์—ฌ Table 1๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ด ๊ณ„์ธตํ™”๋œ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ๊ณ„์ธตํ™”๋œ ์š”์†Œ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์„ค๋ฌธ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•œ ์Œ๋Œ€๋น„๊ต๋ฅผ ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ƒ๋Œ€์  ์ค‘์š”๋„๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ฐ ๋Œ€๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ ๋ฐ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋Œ€๋ถ„๋ฅ˜์— ์†ํ•œ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋ผ๋ฆฌ ์Œ๋Œ€๋น„๊ต์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์„ค๋ฌธ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์‹ค์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์Œ๋Œ€๋น„๊ต๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ฐ ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ƒ๋Œ€์  ์ค‘์š”๋„๋ฅผ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๋Š” ์ฒ™๋„๋กœ Table 2์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด 9์  ์ฒ™๋„๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์Œ๋Œ€๋น„๊ต๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ง€ํ‘œ๋“ค ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ์ƒ๋Œ€์  ์ค‘์š”๋„๊ฐ€ ๋น„์Šทํ•˜๊ณ  ํŒ๋‹จ๋˜๋ฉด 1์ , ์–ด๋А ํ•œ ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ง€ํ‘œ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๊ทนํžˆ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ํŒ๋‹จ๋˜๋ฉด 9์ ์„ ๋ถ€์—ฌํ•œ๋‹ค(Table 2).

์Œ๋Œ€ ๋น„๊ต ์‹œ์— ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •์ž๋Š” ๋ณธ์ธ์˜ ๊ฒฝํ—˜๊ณผ ์ง€์‹์„ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—, ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ํ‰๊ฐ€๋˜์—ˆ๋Š”์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒ€ํ† ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ๊ฒ€์ฆ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ์ง€์ˆ˜(Consistency Index, CI)์™€ ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ๋น„์œจ(Consistency Ratio, CR)์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ์ง€์ˆ˜์™€ ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ๋น„์œจ์€ ์•„๋ž˜ ๊ณต์‹(Eqs. (3) and (4))์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ๊ฒ€์ฆ์—์„œ ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ๋น„์œจ์ด 0.1๋ณด๋‹ค ์ž‘๊ณ  0์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ๊ฐ’์„ ๊ฐ€์งˆ์ˆ˜๋ก, ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํƒ€๋‹นํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ํŒ๋‹จํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.

(3)
CI=(ฮปmaxโˆ’n)/(nโˆ’1)
(4)
CR=CI/RI

์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ฮปmax๋Š” ์Œ๋Œ€๋น„๊ต ํ–‰๋ ฌ์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ๊ณ ์œ ์น˜๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๊ณ , n์€ ๋น„๊ต๋˜๋Š” ์„ธ๋ถ€์ง€ํ‘œ์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. RI๋Š” ๋ฌด์ž‘์œ„ ์ง€์ˆ˜(Random Index)๋กœ 1๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 9์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๋‚œ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ด์„œ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•œ ์Œ๋Œ€๋น„๊ต ํ–‰๋ ฌ์˜ ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ์ง€์ˆ˜์˜ ํ‰๊ท ๊ฐ’์œผ๋กœ์„œ, ๊ฒฝํ—˜์  ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์–ป์€ ํ–‰๋ ฌ์˜ ์ฐจ์›๋ณ„ ํ‰๊ท ๋ฌด์ž‘์œ„ ์ง€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค.

์ˆ˜์ž์› ๊ด€๋ จ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋“ค์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์„ค๋ฌธ ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์‹œํ–‰ํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ์ง€์ˆ˜์™€ ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ๋น„์œจ์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํƒ€๋‹นํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ํŒ๋‹จ๋˜๋Š” ์„ค๋ฌธ ์กฐ์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋งŒ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ ์ง€ํ‘œ์˜ ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋Œ€์•ˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ข…ํ•ฉ์ˆœ์œ„๋ฅผ ์–ป๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋ณ„๋กœ ์ •๊ทœํ™”๋œ ๊ฐ’์— AHP๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ๋„์ถœ๋œ ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ณฑํ•˜์—ฌ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์ง€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์ง€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ์„ ์ˆœ์œ„๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•˜๊ณ , ์ตœ์ ์˜ ๋Œ€์•ˆ์„ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Table 2. AHP Pairwise Comparison Scale

Intensity of weight

Definition

1

Equal importance

3

Weak/moderate importance of one over another

5

Essential or strong importance

7

Very strong or demonstrated importance

9

Absolute importance

2, 4, 6, 8

Intermediate value between the two adjacent scale values

3. ๋Œ€์ƒ์ง€์—ญ ๋ฐ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ˆ˜์ง‘

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์œ ์—ญ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์ง€์—ญ์œผ๋กœ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Fig. 3). ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์œ ์—ญ์€ 3๊ฐœ์˜ ์ค‘๊ถŒ์—ญ(์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ, ํ‰์ฐฝ๊ฐ•, ๋‚จํ•œ๊ฐ•์ƒ๋ฅ˜ ์œ ์—ญ)์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด ๋ฉด์ ์€ 6,648 km2์ด๋‹ค. ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์œ ์—ญ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์€ 1986๋…„์— ์™„๊ณต๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์šฉ์ˆ˜๊ณต๊ธ‰๋Ÿ‰ 3,380๋ฐฑ๋งŒm3, ํ™์ฃผ์กฐ์ ˆ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ 616๋ฐฑ๋งŒm3, ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 844 Gwh์˜ ์ „๋ ฅ์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ, ๊ณต๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์€ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ฝ˜ํฌ๋ฆฌํŠธ ์ค‘๋ ฅ์‹ ๋Œ์œผ๋กœ 2003๋…„ 4์›” ๊ฐ์‚ฌ์› ์ž์—ฐ์žฌํ•ด๋Œ€๋น„ ์‹คํƒœ๊ฐ์‚ฌ์—์„œ ๋Œ ์•ˆ์ „์„ฑ ํ™•๋ณด๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธํกํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ์ง„๋‹จ์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ทนํ•œํ™์ˆ˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋Œ์˜ ์•ˆ์ „์„ฑ์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•˜๊ณ ์ž 2013๋…„ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์น˜์ˆ˜๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ์ฆ๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ๊ณ„ํš์„ ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝํ•˜๊ณ , 2024๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ํ„ฐ๋„์‹ ๋ณด์กฐ์—ฌ์ˆ˜๋กœ๋ฅผ ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ๊ณต์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.

Fig. 3. Chungju Dam Watershed
../../Resources/KSCE/Ksce.2023.43.4.0433/fig3.png

์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ƒ์„ฑํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์œ ์—ญ ๋‚ด์™ธ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ ๊ด€ํ•  8๊ฐœ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ(๋Œ€๊ด€๋ น(100), ๊ฐ•๋ฆ‰(105), ์›์ฃผ(114), ์ถฉ์ฃผ(127), ํƒœ๋ฐฑ(216), ์ œ์ฒœ(221), ๋ด‰ํ™”(271), ์˜์ฃผ(272))๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹œ๋‹จ์œ„ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ConSEB ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๊ตญํ† ๊ตํ†ต๋ถ€์—์„œ ์šด์˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ณต๊ฐ„์ •๋ณดํฌํ„ธ ์˜คํ”ˆ๋งˆ์ผ“์—์„œ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ Digital Elevation Model(DEM), ํ† ์–‘๋„, ํ† ์ง€ํ”ผ๋ณต๋„ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ•œ๊ฐ•ํ™์ˆ˜ํ†ต์ œ์†Œ ๋ฐ K-Water์—์„œ ์šด์˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฌผ์ •๋ณดํฌํ„ธ์—์„œ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ์˜์›”๊ตฐ(ํŒ”๊ดด๊ต), ์˜์›”๊ตฐ(์˜์›”๋Œ€๊ต), ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์˜ ์ ์ ˆ์„ฑ์„ ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์˜ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋ฅผ ๋ชจ์˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ SMPDBK์˜ ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ, ๋ฌผ์ •๋ณดํฌํ„ธ ๋ฐ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ๊ด€๋ จ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์ œ์›์„ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ•˜์ฒœ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฆฌ์ •๋ณด์‹œ์Šคํ…œ(RIMGIS)์—์„œ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€์˜ ํ•˜์ฒœ๋‹จ๋ฉด๋„ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Wonju Regional Environment Office, 2004). ๋˜ํ•œ SMPDBK์˜ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด์™€ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ณต๋ณ‘๋‹จ(US Army Corps of Engineers, USACE), ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ทœ์ œ ์œ„์›ํšŒ(Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FERC), ๋ฏธ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ(National Weather Service, NWS)์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ํ‰๊ท ํญ, ๋ถ•๊ดด์ง€์†์‹œ๊ฐ„, ์ตœ์ข… ๋ถ•๊ดด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ ๋†’์ด์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

4. ์ ์šฉ ๋ฐ ๋ถ„์„

4.1 ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์ƒ์„ฑ ๋ฐ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰ ์‚ฐ์ •

์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ์ƒ์„ฑ์ ˆ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์œ ์—ญ์˜ 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„ ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์ด ์—ฐ์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ƒ์„ฑํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์‚ฐ์ • ์‹œ์— ์ง€์†์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋Š” 48์‹œ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ๊ธฐ์กด ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ๊ด€๋ จ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋“ค์—์„œ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์˜ ํ™์ˆ˜์กฐ์ ˆ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•  ๋•Œ, ์ž„๊ณ„์ง€์†์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ์ง€์†์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ 48์‹œ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค(Lee et al., 2017; Wonju Regional Environment Office, 2004). ๋จผ์ € ใ€Œํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰ ์‚ฐ์ • ํ‘œ์ค€์ง€์นจใ€์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์‚ฐ์ •๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ 8๊ฐœ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ์ง€์†์‹œ๊ฐ„-๋นˆ๋„๋ณ„ ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ ์ง€์ ๋ณ„ ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ’์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ Thiessen ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๊ณผ ๋ฉด์ ์šฐ๋Ÿ‰ํ™˜์‚ฐ๊ณ„์ˆ˜(Areal Reduction Factor, ARF)๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฉด์ ํ‰๊ท  ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(520.7 mm/48 hr). ๋‹ค์Œ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๋ฌด๊ฐ•์šฐ ์ง€์† ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ IETD๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. 8๊ฐœ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ ์‹œ๋‹จ์œ„ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ CV๋ถ„์„์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ๋ณ„ IETD๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(๋Œ€๊ด€๋ น(100): 11 hr, ๊ฐ•๋ฆ‰(105): 11 hr, ์›์ฃผ(114): 13 hr, ์ถฉ์ฃผ(127): 15 hr, ํƒœ๋ฐฑ(216): 12 hr, ์ œ์ฒœ(221): 15 hr, ๋ด‰ํ™”(271): 16 hr, ์˜์ฃผ(272): 15 hr). 8๊ฐœ ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ์˜ IETD ๊ฐ’ ์ค‘์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ž‘์€ ๊ฐ’์ธ 11์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ IETD๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ ๋ฉด์ ํ‰๊ท  ํ™•๋ฅ  ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ IETD๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„ ๋ฉด์ ํ‰๊ท  ํ™•๋ฅ  ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์„ 11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฌด๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ„๊ฒฉ์„ ๋‘๊ณ  ์—ฐ์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œ์ผœ 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ƒ์„ฑํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ƒ์„ฑ๋œ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์˜ ๋น„๊ต์น˜๋กœ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ใ€Œ์ „๊ตญ PMP๋„ ์žฌ์ž‘์„ฑ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, 2004)ใ€์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ PMP ์‚ฐ์ • ์ ˆ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ PMP๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. PMP ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•  ๋•Œ ์ง€์†์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ ๋™์ผํ•˜๊ฒŒ 48์‹œ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, PMP๋Š” 661.74 mm๋กœ ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ PMP์™€ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์˜ ๋ˆ„์ ๊ฐ•์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๋น„๊ตํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์—์„œ ๋ˆ„์ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰์ด PMP๋ณด๋‹ค ์ปค์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค(Fig. 4).

Fig. 4. 500-year Frequency Mega Rainfall Event Scenario of Chungju Dam Watershed
../../Resources/KSCE/Ksce.2023.43.4.0433/fig4.png

์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ ์œ ์—ญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ConSEB ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ Geographic Information System(GIS)๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์†Œ์œ ์—ญ์„ ๋ถ„ํ• ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ฐ ์†Œ์œ ๋ณ„๋กœ ๋ฉด์ , ํ•˜๋„์˜ ๊ธธ์ด, ํ•˜๋„์˜ ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ํ•ด๋‹น์œ ์—ญ์˜ DEM, ํ† ์–‘๋„, ํ† ์ง€ํ”ผ๋ณต๋„ ๋“ฑ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ชจํ˜• ์ž…๋ ฅ์ž๋ฃŒ ๋ฐ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•œ ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ๋ณด์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•ด 2009๋…„ 07์›” 08์ผ 00์‹œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 15์ผ 23์‹œ์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•˜๋Š” 8๊ฐœ ๊ธฐ์ƒ๊ด€์ธก์†Œ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ Peak Difference(PDIFF), Percent Error in Peak(PEP), Normalized Root Mean Squared Error(NRMSE), Nash- Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE) ๋“ฑ 4๊ฐœ์˜ ํ†ต๊ณ„์ง€ํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ๋ณด์ • ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ํ†ต๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋ณด์ •๋œ ConSEB ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฒ€์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์—ฐ์†๊ฐ•์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ 2011๋…„ 6์›” 21์ผ 00์‹œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 27์ผ 23์‹œ(๊ฒ€์ •์‚ฌ์ƒ A)์™€ 2016๋…„ 6์›” 30์ผ 00์‹œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 7์›” 8์ผ 23์‹œ(๊ฒ€์ •์‚ฌ์ƒ B)๊นŒ์ง€์˜ 2๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ์œ ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ด€์ธก์น˜์™€ ๋น„๊ตยท๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์šฐ์„  ๊ฒ€์ •์‚ฌ์ƒ A์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋กœ์„œ ํŒ”๊ดด๊ต์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์‹ค์ธก ์ฒจ๋‘์œ ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๋ชจ์˜์ฒจ๋‘์œ ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ -11.4CMS๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ž‘์•˜์ง€๋งŒ Nash ๊ณ„์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์˜์›”๋Œ€๊ต ๋ฐ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚ฎ์€ 0.817๋กœ ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์—์„œ๋Š” ์œ ์ถœ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฐ ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์ด ์ž˜ ๋งž์•˜์œผ๋ฉฐ Nash๊ณ„์ˆ˜๋„ 0.914๋กœ ๋†’์€ ๊ฐ’์ด ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒ€์ •์‚ฌ์ƒ B์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ฒ€์ •์‚ฌํ•ญ A์— ๋น„ํ•ด์„œ ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ •ํ™•์„ฑ์ด ๋‹ค์†Œ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚œ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๊ฒ€์ •์‚ฌ์ƒ B์— ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋˜ ํ˜ธ์šฐ๋“ค์ด ๋ชจํ˜•์—์„œ๋Š” ์œ ์ถœ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์ง€๋งŒ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ์œ ์ถœ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์œ ์ถœ๊ตฌ์ธ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์˜ ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๋น„๊ตํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์—์„œ๋Š” Nash ๊ณ„์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ 0.827๋กœ์„œ ์œ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ฒจ๋‘๊ฐ’์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ๊ฒ€์ •์‚ฌ์ƒ A๋ณด๋‹ค ์ž‘๊ฒŒ ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ๋ชจํ˜•์ด ์œ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค(Table 3).

๋ณด์ •๊ณผ ๊ฒ€์ •์ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง„ ConSEB ๋ชจํ˜•์— 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„ ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ฐ•์šฐ๋Ÿ‰, 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์™€ PMP๋ฅผ ๊ฐ•์šฐ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์ž…๋ ฅํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์ตœ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰(Probable Maximum Flood, PMF)์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Table 4). ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด, 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ฒจ๋‘ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์ด PMP์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ฒจ๋‘ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์— ๋น„ํ•ด์„œ ์•ฝ 1.2๋ฐฐ ๋” ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ์œ ์ถœ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์— PMF๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ํฐ ์ฒจ๋‘ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€๋‹ค. ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ 2002๋…„ ํƒœํ’ ๋ฃจ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๋ฅ™ํ•˜์˜€์„ ๋•Œ ๊ฐ•๋ฆ‰์— 24์‹œ๊ฐ„ PMP๋ณด๋‹ค ํฐ ์ผ๊ฐ•์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์ด ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์žฅํ˜„์ €์ˆ˜์ง€์™€ ๋™๋ง‰์ €์ˆ˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์‹ค์ œ ์‚ฌ๋ก€๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ PMP๋ณด๋‹ค ๋†’์€ ์ฒจ๋‘ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œํ‚จ 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋Œ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€์— ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” 2๊ฐ€์ง€ ๊ฐ€์ƒ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค(๋ฌดํ”ผํ•ด๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜์— ์˜ํ•œ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค/๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด์— ์˜ํ•œ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค)๋ฅผ ์ •์˜ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Table 3. Validation of the ConSEB Model

Validating Events

Validating observation site

Palgoegyo

Yeongwol

daegyo

Chungju Dam

A

Observed peak discharge(CMS)

1719.8

2049.1

6017.9

Simulated peak discharge(CMS)

1708.4

1991.0

5704.6

PDIFF

-11.4

-58.1

-313.3

PEP(%)

-0.661

-2.834

-5.206

NRMSE(%)

13.993

10.369

8.704

NSE

0.817

0.914

0.914

B

Observed peak discharge(CMS)

2600.9

2421.7

5329.2

Simulated peak discharge(CMS)

2807.7

2503.9

5533.3

PDIFF

206.7

82.2

204.1

PEP(%)

7.949

3.393

3.830

NRMSE(%)

14.939

16.556

10.712

NSE

0.699

0.601

0.827

Table 4. Comparison of Peak Flood

Scenarios

Total precipitation

(mm)

Peak discharge

(cms)

Note

500yr

520.7

26245.85

500yr-500yr

1041.4

31080.34

Select

PMF

661.7

29247.43

4.2 ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜ ๋ฐ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด์— ์˜ํ•œ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ๊ตฌ์„ฑ ๋ฐ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฒ”๋žŒ๋„ ํ•ด์„

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์•ž์„œ ์ฑ„ํƒํ•œ 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋Š” ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฌดํ”ผํ•ด๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋กœ ์ธํ•˜์—ฌ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€์˜ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ์œ ๋ฐœํ•˜๋Š” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A์™€ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๊ฐ€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B ๋“ฑ 2๊ฐ€์ง€ ๊ฐ€์ƒ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ƒ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋“ค์˜ ์ ์šฉ ๋ฐ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€์˜ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ•ด์„์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋ฌดํ”ผํ•ด๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ์‹œ ๋Œ์˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ ๋จผ์ € ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์€ ์—ฌ์ˆ˜๋กœ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๊ธฐ์ค€๊ณก์„ (Spillway Rule Curve, SPC)์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰์ด ์กฐ์ ˆ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์˜ SPC๋Š” Table 5์™€ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค. ํ™์ˆ˜๊ธฐ์‹œ ๋Œ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Š” ํ‰๊ท  ๋ฐœ์ „๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ํฌํ•จํ•˜์—ฌ ์šฐ์„  200CMS๋กœ ์ œํ•œํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋Œ ์ €์ˆ˜์ง€ ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ EL. 139.5 m์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ธฐ ์ „๊นŒ์ง€ ๋™์ผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์œ ์ง€๋œ๋‹ค. ๋Œ ์ €์ˆ˜์ง€ ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ EL. 139.5 m๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•˜๋ฉด ๋Œ ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ์˜ ๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ์— ์˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ ์ฐจ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚ค๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ EL. 144.5 m์— ์ด๋ฅด๋ฉด ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ์ด ์™„์ „ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ๋œ๋‹ค. ๋Œ์˜ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋Š” ์ œํ•œ์ˆ˜์œ„์ธ EL. 138 m๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ธฐ์ƒ์˜ˆ๋ณด, ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰ ์ „๋ง ๋“ฑ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๋ฏธ๋ฆฌ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๋Š” ์šด์˜์€ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. SPC๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์‹œ ๋Œ ์œ ์ž…๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋กœ ํ™˜์‚ฐํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ๊ทธ๋ฆผ์œผ๋กœ ํ‘œํ˜„ํ•˜๋ฉด Fig. 5์™€ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค.

Table 5. Chungju Dam Discharge according to Water Level

Water level

(EL.m)

Dam discharge

(m3/s)

Remarks

Water level

(EL.m)

Dam discharge

(m3/s)

Remarks

138.0

200

Restricted water level

142.5

3,000

139.0

200

143.0

4,600

139.5

200

143.5

6,600

140.0

250

144.0

9,300

140.5

400

144.5

12,000

Full opening of dam gate

141.0

700

Normal high water level

145.0

16,200

Design flood level

141.5

1,200

146.0

17,700

142.0

2,000

147.0

20,700

โ€ป Until water level reach to high water level (rainy season: EL. 138m, Non-rainy season: EL. 141m), there is no dam spillway discharge

Fig. 5์—์„œ ๋ณด๋Š” ๋ฐ”์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด, 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์ด ๋Œ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ž…๋˜์–ด ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์˜ ์ •์ƒํ‘œ๊ณ (EL. 147.5 m) ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์— ๋Œ ์›”๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์›”๋ฅ˜๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ์ฒจ๋‘๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰์€ 26,159.8 CMS๋กœ ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋•Œ์˜ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋Š” ์ •์ƒํ‘œ๊ณ ๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ฝ 2.5 m ๋†’์€ EL. 150 m์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” Table 6๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A์—์„œ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ๋Œ์˜ ์ฒจ๋‘๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๊ฐ’์œผ๋กœ 26,159.8 CMS๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์˜ ๊ณ„ํšํ™์ˆ˜์œ„์‹œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋˜๋Š” ์–‘์˜ ์•ฝ 1.6๋ฐฐ ์ด์ƒ์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•œ๋‹ค.

Fig. 5. Chungju Dam Water Level Curve according to Inflow and Outflow
../../Resources/KSCE/Ksce.2023.43.4.0433/fig5.png

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋ชจ์˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๋น„๊ต์  ์ ์€ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ํƒ€๋‹นํ•œ ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰ ์‚ฐ์ •์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ SMPDBK ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋Š” ์ฝ˜ํฌ๋ฆฌํŠธ ์ค‘๋ ฅ์‹ ๋Œ์ธ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์˜ ํŠน์„ฑ์„ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋…ธํ›„ํ™” ๋ฐ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•œ ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•œ ์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๋Œ์ฒด์˜ ๋ถ€๋ถ„ ์ฝ˜ํฌ๋ฆฌํŠธ ๋ถˆ๋ก์ด ๋ฏธ๋„๋Ÿฌ์ ธ์„œ ๋ถ•๊ดด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๋งž๋Š” SMPDBK ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ณต๋ณ‘๋‹จ(USACE), ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ทœ์ œ ์œ„์›ํšŒ(FERC), ๋ฏธ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ(NWS)์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ฐธ๊ณ ํ•˜์—ฌ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Table 7). ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ํ‰๊ท ํญ์€ 223.5 m(0.5ร—L), ๋ถ•๊ดด์ง€์†์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ 10๋ถ„, ๋Œ๋ถ•๊ดด์ˆ˜์œ„๋Š” EL. 150 m, ์ตœ์ข… ๋ถ•๊ดด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ๋†’์ด๋Š” EL. 50 m๋กœ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๊ฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฒ”๋žŒ๋„ ํ•ด์„์€ ํ–‰์ •์•ˆ์ „๋ถ€์—์„œ ๊ณ ์‹œํ•œ ์žฌํ•ด์ง€๋„ ์ž‘์„ฑ ๊ธฐ์ค€ ๋“ฑ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์ง€์นจ์— ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ํ™์ˆ˜๋ฒ”๋žŒ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋„ ์ ˆ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Fig. 6). ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋จผ์ € ์ ์šฉ ๋Œ€์ƒ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์„ ์ถฉ์ฃผ๋Œ์—์„œ ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ• ํ•ฉ๋ฅ˜์ „๊นŒ์ง€์ธ ์ด 106.6 km ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋‹ค์Œ์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ง‘๋œ ํ•˜์ฒœ๋‹จ๋ฉด๋„๊ฐ€ ์ œ๋‚ด์ง€๊นŒ์ง€ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— GIS๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์ œ๋‚ด์ง€๊นŒ์ง€ ํ•˜์ฒœ๋‹จ๋ฉด์„ ํ™•์žฅํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. SMPDBK์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋กœ ๋‚˜์˜จ ๋Œ ๋ถ•๊ดด ์‹œ ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ HEC-RAS์— ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ํ™์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ , ์ด๋ฅผ DEM ์œ„์— ์˜ฌ๋ ค์„œ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฒ”๋žŒ๋„๋ฅผ ์ž‘์„ฑํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

Fig. 6. Procedure of Flood Inundation Mapping (Ministry of the Interior and Safety, 2017)
../../Resources/KSCE/Ksce.2023.43.4.0433/fig6.png

๋จผ์ € ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ด ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ์€ 50.0636 km2์ด์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ๋ณ„๋กœ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด ์ถฉ์ฃผ์‹œ๋Š” 22.6219 km2, ์—ฌ์ฃผ์‹œ๋Š” 20.1840 km2, ์–‘ํ‰๊ตฐ์€ 7.2577 km2์˜ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Fig. 7(a)).

Table 6. Inflow and Dam Discharge of Chungju Dam according to 500-year Frequency Mega Flood

Scenario

Duration

(hr)

Total precipitation

(mm)

Peak inflow

(m3/s)

Peak flood

(m3/s)

Maximum water level

(EL.m)

500yr-500yr

48

1041.4

31080.336

26159.8

150.00

Table 7. Ranges of Possible Values for Breach Characteristics

Dam

type

Average Breach Width

Horizontal Component of

Breach Side Slope (H:V)

Failure Time

(hours)

Agency

Earthen/Rockfill

(0.52 to 3.0) ร— HD

0 to 1.0

0.5 to 4.0

USACE 1980

(0.52 to 3.0) ร— HD

0 to 1.0

0.1 to 1.0

FERC

(0.52 to 3.0) ร— HD

0 to 1.0

(slightly larger)

0.1 to 1.0

NWS

(0.52 to 3.0) ร— HD

0 to 1.0

0.1 to 4.0

USACE 2007

Concrete Gravity

Multiple Monoliths

Vertical

0.1 to 0.5

USACE 1980

Usually โ‰ค 0.5L

Vertical

0.1 to 0.3

FERC

Usually โ‰ค 0.5L

Vertical

0.1 to 0.2

NWS

Multiple Monoliths

Vertical

0.1 to 0.5

USACE 2007

Concrete Arch

Entire Dam

Valley wall slope

โ‰ค 0.1

USACE 1980

Entire Dam

0 to Valley walls

โ‰ค 0.1

FERC

(0.8 ร— L) to L

0 to Valley walls

โ‰ค 0.1

NWS

(0.8 ร— L) to L

0 to Valley walls

โ‰ค 0.1

USACE 2007

Slag/Refuse

(0.8 ร— L) to L

1.0 to 2.0

0.1 to 0.3

FERC

(0.8 ร— L) to L

โ‰ค 0.1

NWS

HD : Height of dam, L : Length of dam, FERC-Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, NWS-National Weather Service, USACE-United States Army Corps of Engineers
Fig. 7. Flood Damage Area due to Two Scenarios: (a) Scenario A, (b) Scenario B
../../Resources/KSCE/Ksce.2023.43.4.0433/fig7.png

์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ด ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ์€ 307.4543 km2๋กœ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A์— ๋น„ํ•ด์„œ ์•ฝ 6.14๋ฐฐ ํฐ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Fig. 7(b)). ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ๋ณ„๋กœ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉด, ์ถฉ์ฃผ์‹œ๋Š” 78.6774 km2, ์—ฌ์ฃผ์‹œ๋Š” 182.9266 km2, ์–‘ํ‰์€ 45.8503 km2๋กœ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ์•ฝ 6.317๋ฐฐ, 9.063๋ฐฐ, 3.478๋ฐฐ ํฐ ์นจ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์—ฌ์ฃผ์‹œ์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์—ฌ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ง€์—ญ๋“ค๊ณผ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ์ฃผ์œ„์— ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์™„๋งŒํ•œ ํ‰์ง€๋กœ์„œ ํ™์ˆ˜์œ„์˜ ์†Œํญ ์ƒ์Šน์—๋„ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ์ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด์— ์ถฉ์ฃผ์‹œ๋Š” ์‚ฐ์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์€ ์ง€ํ˜•์œผ๋กœ์„œ ๊ณ ์ง€๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ์ฃผ์‹œ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๋น„๊ต์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋งŽ์•„ ํ™์ˆ˜์œ„๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์Œ์—๋„ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ์ด ๋น„๊ต์  ์ž‘๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

ํ† ์ง€ํ”ผ๋ณต๋„์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ„๋ฅ˜์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ฐ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋ณ„ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ๊ณผ ๋น„์œจ์„ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด(Table 8), ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A์™€ B ๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ฐ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ์—์„œ ๋†์—…์ง€์—ญ์˜ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ์ด 50% ์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ถฉ์ฃผ์‹œ, ์•™ํ‰๊ตฐ์€ ๋†์—…์ง€์—ญ ๋‹ค์Œ์œผ๋กœ ์‹œ๊ฐ€ํ™”์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ ์นจ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์—ฌ์ฃผ์‹œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ดˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ์นจ์ˆ˜๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ถฉ์ฃผ์‹œ, ์—ฌ์ฃผ์‹œ, ์–‘ํ‰๊ตฐ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋†์—…์ง€์—ญ ๋‹ค์Œ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฐ๋ฆผ์ง€์—ญ์ด ๋งŽ์ด ์นจ์ˆ˜๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ€ํ™” ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ๋น„์œจ ๋น„๊ตํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด, ์ถฉ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋†’๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค.

Table 8. Flood Damage Area according to Land Cover Type

Scenario

Total

(km2)

Flood damage area (km2)

Urban

Agriculture

Forest

Meadow

Bare

Wetland

A

Chungju

22.6219

2.8612

14.2620

1.6807

1.8527

1.9653

-

12.65%

63.05%

7.43%

8.19%

8.69%

-

Yeoju

20.1840

1.0760

10.2831

0.5338

3.5333

4.7579

-

5.33%

50.95%

2.64%

17.51%

23.57%

-

Yangpyeong

7.2577

0.9314

4.7239

0.8613

0.5091

0.2320

-

12.83%

65.09%

11.87%

7.02%

3.20%

-

B

Chungju

78.6774

8.8979

49.3917

9.4449

6.5785

4.3645

-

11.31%

62.78%

12.00%

8.36%

5.55%

-

Yeoju

182.9266

6.9672

127.1900

18.5873

16.8780

13.3041

-

3.81%

69.53%

10.16%

9.23%

7.27%

-

Yangpyeong

45.8503

3.0065

32.8836

5.7699

3.6240

0.5657

0.0007

6.56%

71.72%

12.58%

7.90%

1.23%

0.00%

4.3 ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ •

์„ธ ๊ฐœ์˜ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ ์ค‘ ์‹œ๊ฐ€ํ™” ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋งŽ์€ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ถฉ์ฃผ์‹œ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋™๋ณ„๋กœ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์•ž์„œ ๋ถ„์„ํ•œ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฒ”๋žŒ๋„๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ณ„ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋œ ๋™๋“ค์„ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํŒŒ์•…๋œ ๋™๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ์‹œยท๊ตฐยท๊ตฌ ์•ˆ์ „๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ณ„ํš๊ณผ ์žฌํ•ด๊ตฌํ˜ธ๊ณ„ํš ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝ ์ง€์นจ์˜ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์ง€์ • ๊ธฐ์ค€์„ ์ฐธ๊ณ ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์„ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. 2.3์ ˆ์—์„œ ์„ ์ •ํ•œ 3๊ฐœ ๋Œ€๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ์™€ 7๊ฐœ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ณ„์ธต๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ฐ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋ณ„ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•˜์—ฌ ์Šค์ผ€์ผ ์žฌ์กฐ์ • ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ํ‘œ์ค€ํ™”ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ AHP ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋ณ„ ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜ ์‚ฐ์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์ƒ๋Œ€์  ์ค‘์š”๋„ ์„ค๋ฌธ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ์ˆ˜์ž์›๊ณผ ์ž์—ฐ์žฌ๋‚œ๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋“ค์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์„ค๋ฌธ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜ ์‚ฐ์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€ ์„ค๋ฌธ ์ค‘ ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ์ด ๋–จ์–ด์ง€๋Š” ์„ค๋ฌธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธ์‹œ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ตœ์ข…์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด 53๋ถ„์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž๋ถ„๋“ค๊ป˜์„œ ์ž‘์„ฑํ•ด์ฃผ์‹  ์„ค๋ฌธ์กฐ์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Table 9). ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•œ 53๊ฐœ์˜ ์„ค๋ฌธ์ง€ ์กฐ์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ ๋น„์œจ์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ํŒ๋‹จ ๊ธฐ์ค€์ธ 10%๋ณด๋‹ค ์ž‘์€ 5.53%๋กœ ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์Œ๋Œ€๋น„๊ต ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํƒ€๋‹นํ•˜๊ณ  ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋Œ€๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์Œ๋Œ€๋น„๊ต๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ โ€œ์ž…์ง€์กฐ๊ฑดโ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•ญ๋ชฉ์ด 0.73์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜๊ฐ€ ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์Œ๋Œ€ ๋น„๊ต๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ โ€œ๊ทœ๋ชจโ€์˜ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋“ค์—์„œ๋Š” โ€œ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ์˜ ๊ฑด๋ฌผ ๋†’์ดโ€๊ฐ€ 0.83์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์•˜์œผ๋ฉฐ, โ€œ์ž…์ง€์กฐ๊ฑดโ€์˜ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋“ค์—์„œ๋Š” โ€œ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์‹œ์„ค์ด ํ•˜์ฒœ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌโ€๊ฐ€ 0.63์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์•˜๋‹ค. ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ โ€œ์ง€์ •์‹œ์„คโ€์˜ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋Š” โ€œ๊ณต๊ณต์‹œ์„คโ€์ด 0.75๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’๊ฒŒ ์‚ฐ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ํ•˜์ฒœ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ€๊ณ , ์ •๋ถ€์ง€์›์„ ๋ฐ›๋Š” ๊ณ ์ธต์˜ ๊ณต๊ณต์‹œ์„ค์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ตœ์ ์˜ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ธ๋‹ค.

Table 9. Weights of Shelter Evaluation Indicators

General

Weight

Specific Evaluation Indicators

Weight

Scale accommodation

0.19

Adequate accommodation of evacuees

0.17

Height of shelter building

0.83

Geographical conditions

0.73

Ease of access from evacuation route

0.18

Distance of shelter from stream/river

0.63

Time taken to evacuate to shelter

0.19

Type

0.08

Public building

0.75

Private institutions

0.25

์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A์— ์˜ํ•œ ์นจ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์‹œ ์ธ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ€์ง‘๋˜๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์„ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์„ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์„ ์ •๋œ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์€ ์น ๊ธˆ๋™ 5๊ฐœ, ๋ด‰๋ฐฉ๋™ 3๊ฐœ๋กœ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋‹ฌ์ฒœ๋™์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์„ ์ • ์ ˆ์ฐจ์— ์ ํ•ฉํ•œ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์—†๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ๋ฌธํ™”๋™์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ 2๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์€ ์นจ์ˆ˜๊ตฌ์—ญ๊ณผ ์–ด๋А ์ •๋„ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋–จ์–ด์ ธ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋ณต์ง€์„ผํ„ฐ, ๊ตํšŒ, ํ•™๊ต ๋“ฑ์˜ ์‹œ์„ค๋“ค์ด ์„ ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์„ ์ •๋œ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๊ฐ ์„ธ๋ถ€ํ‰๊ฐ€์ง€ํ‘œ๋ณ„ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ํ‘œ์ค€ํ™”ํ•œ ๋’ค, ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ค‘์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ณฑํ•˜์—ฌ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‚ฐ์ •๋œ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ ๋™๋ณ„ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค ๊ฐ„์˜ ์šฐ์„ ์ˆœ์œ„๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Table 10).

์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋„ ์ด์ „๊ณผ ๋™์ผํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ๋™๋ณ„๋กœ ๋ณต์ง€์„ผํ„ฐ, ํ•™๊ต, ์ฒด์œก๊ด€, ๊ตํšŒ๋ฅผ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์„ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์—ฐ์ˆ˜๋™ 5๊ฐœ, ๊ตํ˜„๋™ 4๊ฐœ, ์šฉ์‚ฐ๋™๊ณผ ๋ฌธํ™”๋™์€ ๊ฐ 2๊ฐœ, ์•ˆ๋ฆผ๋™, ํ˜ธ์•”๋™, ๋‹จ์›”๋™์—๋Š” ๊ฐ 1๊ฐœ์”ฉ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์ด ์„ ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋™์ผํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ ๋™๋ณ„ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค์˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์—ฌ ์šฐ์„ ์ˆ˜์œ„๋ฅผ ๋งค๊ฒผ๋‹ค(Table 11). ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์นจ๊ธˆ๋™์˜ ์ตœ์ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋Š” ์น ๊ธˆ์ดˆ๋“ฑํ•™๊ต, ๋ด‰๋ฐฉ๋™์€ ์‚ผ์›์ดˆ๋“ฑํ•™๊ต, ๋ฌธํ™”๋™์€ ๋Œ€๋ฆผ์ดˆ๋“ฑํ•™๊ต๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์—ฐ์ˆ˜๋™์€ ์ˆœ๋ณต์Œ๋งŒ๋ฏผ๊ตํšŒ, ๊ตํ˜„๋™์€ ํ•œ๋ฆผ๋””์ž์ธ๊ณ ๋“ฑํ•™๊ต, ์šฉ์‚ฐ๋™์€ ์šฉ์‚ฐ์ดˆ๋“ฑํ•™๊ต, ๋ฌธํ™”๋™์€ ๋‚จํ•œ๊ฐ•์ดˆ๋“ฑํ•™๊ต๋กœ ์„ ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์„ ์ •๋œ 6๊ฐœ์˜ ์ตœ์ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์ค‘์—์„œ 5๊ฐœ๊ฐ€ ํ•™๊ต๋กœ ์„ ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋Š” ์ˆ˜์šฉ์ธ์› ๋ฐ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ๋“ฑ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์˜€์„ ๋•Œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ๋Œ€์•ˆ๋“ค๋ณด๋‹ค ์ตœ์ ์˜ ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ๊ฐ–์ถ˜ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์„ ์ •๋œ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€์†Œ๋Š” ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ๊ตฌํ˜ธ๋ฌผํ’ˆ ๊ตฌ๋น„ ๋ฐ ๋น„์ƒ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋‚ด๋ถ€์  ๋Œ€์ฒ˜๊ณ„ํš์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋ฃŒ๋œ๋‹ค.

Table 10. Optimal Shelter Selection according to the Scenario A

Administrative region

Alternatives

Evaluation

Priority

Name

Type

Chilgeum dong

CG1

Welfare center

0.58

2

CG2

Church

0.41

3

CG3

Welfare center

0.13

5

CG4

School

0.78

1

CG5

School

0.41

3

Bongbang dong

BB1

School

0.19

3

BB2

School

0.96

1

BB3

Church

0.57

2

Munhwa dong

MH1

Sanatorium

0.21

2

MH2

School

0.79

1

Table 11. Optimal Shelter Selection according to the Scenario B

Administrative region

Alternatives

Evaluation

Priority

Name

Type

Yeonsu dong

YSu1

Church

0.11

5

YSu2

Church

0.34

3

YSu3

School

0.60

2

YSu4

Church

0.77

1

YSu5

Welfare center

0.27

4

Gyohyeon dong

GY1

School

0.68

1

GY2

School

0.26

3

GY3

Gym

0.17

4

GY4

School

0.31

2

Anrim dong

Al

School

0.98

1

Yongsan dong

YSa1

School

0.22

2

YSa2

School

0.82

1

Munhwa dong

MH1

Church

0.32

2

MH2

School

0.68

1

Hoam dong

HA

Gym

0.85

1

Danwol dong

DW

Gym

0.81

1

5. ๊ฒฐ ๋ก 

๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ํ˜„ ๋น„์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒ˜๊ณ„ํš์—์„œ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋ชจ์˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋น„์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒ˜๊ณ„ํš์œผ๋กœ์„œ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•œ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ์ƒ์„ฑ ์ ˆ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ 500๋…„ ๋นˆ๋„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ•์šฐ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ƒ์„ฑํ•˜๊ณ  ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๊ฐ•์šฐ-์œ ์ถœ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ธ ConSEB ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. PMP์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ PMF์™€ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋น„๊ตํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ PMF๋ณด๋‹ค ํฐ ์ฒจ๋‘ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์˜ ๋ฐœ์ƒ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ชจ์˜๋œ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ™์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๋ฌดํ”ผํ•ด๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๋Œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฅ˜์— ์˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€์— ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ(์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A)์™€ ๋Œ์ด ๋ถ•๊ดด๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ(์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B) ๋“ฑ 2๊ฐ€์ง€ ๊ฐ€์ƒ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ƒ์„ฑํ•˜๊ณ  ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฒ”๋žŒ ๋ถ„์„์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค A์—์„œ๋Š” 50.06 km2์˜ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค B์—์„œ๋Š” ์•ฝ 6.1๋ฐฐ ํฐ 307.45 km2์˜ ์นจ์ˆ˜๋ฉด์ ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜๋ถ€ ์ง€์—ญ ์ค‘์—์„œ ์‹œ๊ฐ€ํ™” ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋งŽ์€ ์นจ์ˆ˜ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์ถฉ์ฃผ์‹œ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋™๋ณ„ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์„ ์ •๋œ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด, ๋‘ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—์„œ ์„ ์ •ํ•œ 6๊ฐœ์˜ ์ตœ์  ๋Œ€ํ”ผ์†Œ ์ค‘์—์„œ 5๊ฐœ๊ฐ€ ํ•™๊ต๋กœ ์„ ์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ๋น„์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒ˜๊ณ„ํš์—์„œ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜ธ์šฐ ์‚ฌ์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ์ถ”๊ฐ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ถ”ํ›„ ๋น„์ƒ๋Œ€์ฒ˜๊ณ„ํš ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝ ์‹œ ์ฐธ๊ณ  ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ํ™œ์šฉ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

๊ฐ์‚ฌ์˜ ๊ธ€

์ด ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์€ 2022๋…„๋„ ์ •๋ถ€(๊ณผํ•™๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ •๋ณดํ†ต์‹ ๋ถ€)์˜ ์žฌ์›์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ๊ตญ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์žฌ๋‹จ์˜ ์ง€์›์„ ๋ฐ›์•„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰๋œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž„(No. 2022R1A2C2091773).

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