| Title |
Annual Precipitation Reconstruction Based on Tree-ring Data at Seorak |
| Authors |
곽재원 ( Jae Won Kwak ) ; 한희찬 ( Hee Chan Han ) ; 이민정 ( Min Jung Lee ) ; 김형수 ( Hung Soo Kim ) ; 문장원 ( Jang Won Mun ) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.15681/KSWE.2015.31.1.19 |
| Keywords |
Annual precipitation; NARX; Neural network; Tree-ring |
| Abstract |
The purpose of this research is reconstruction of annual precipitation based on Tree-ring series at Seorak mountain and examine its effectiveness. To do so we performed nonlinear time series characteristics test of Tree-ring series and reconstructed annual precipitation of Gangneung from 1687 to 1911 using Artificial neural network and Nonlinear autoregressive exogeneous input (NARX) model which reflects stochastic properties. As a result, Tree-ring series at Seorak Mountain shows nonlinear time series property and reconstructed annual precipitation series drawn from NARX is similar in statistical characteristics of observed annual time series. |