The Journal of
the Korean Society on Water Environment

The Journal of
the Korean Society on Water Environment

Bimonthly
  • ISSN : 2289-0971 (Print)
  • ISSN : 2289-098X (Online)
  • KCI Accredited Journal

Editorial Office


  1. ํ™˜๊ฒฝ๋ถ€ ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญํ™˜๊ฒฝ์ฒญ ์ธก์ •๋ถ„์„๊ณผ (anriver Basin Environmental office, Ministry of Environment)
  2. ๊ณ ๋ ค๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์ƒํƒœ๊ณตํ•™๊ณผ (Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University)



Climate change, Future air temperature, Han-River basin, Water quality, Water temperature

1. Introduction

๊ณผ๊ฑฐ 100๋…„๊ฐ„ ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ฆ๊ฐ€์œจ ๋Œ€๋น„ 2.3๋ฐฐ์ธ ์•ฝ 1.7ยฐC ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ๊ฐ•์ˆ˜์ผ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์ตœ๊ทผ 50๋…„๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ์†Œ๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ˜ธ์šฐ ๋ฐœ์ƒ๋นˆ๋„๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋šœ๋ ทํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„๋ฅ˜๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ 2100๋…„์˜ ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๊ธฐํ›„๋Š” ์•„์—ด๋Œ€ ๊ธฐํ›„๋กœ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(IPCC, 2007; Jung, Bae et al., 2011). 2020๋…„ ํ•œ๊ตญ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ํ‰๊ฐ€๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ(ME, 2020)์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ง€๋‚œ 40๋…„๊ฐ„ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ์€ 1980๋…„๋Œ€ 12.2ยฐC, 1990๋…„๋Œ€ 12.6ยฐC, 2000๋…„๋Œ€ 12.8ยฐC, 2010๋…„๋Œ€ 13.0ยฐC๋กœ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์ด ์ ์ฐจ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•์ธํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(๊ฒฌ๊ณ ํ•œ ๋™์˜). ํŠนํžˆ, 2000๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดํ›„ ์ €์˜จํ˜„์ƒ์˜ ๊ฐ•๋„๋Š” ๊ฐ•ํ•ด์ง€๊ณ (์ œํ•œ์  ๋™์˜) ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, 2010๋…„๋Œ€ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜ ์ดํ›„์—๋Š” ๋ด„์ฒ  ์ด์ƒ๊ณ ์˜จ ํ˜„์ƒ์˜ ๋นˆ๋„์™€ ๊ฐ•๋„๋Š” ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜๊ณ (๊ฒฌ๊ณ ํ•œ ๋™์˜), ๊ทนํ•œ๊ณ ์˜จ์˜ ๋นˆ๋„ ๋˜ํ•œ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€(์ค‘๊ฐ„์  ๋™์˜)๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ธก๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(ME, 2020)(Table 1).

Table 1. Reliability evaluation (level of agreement) classification of climate change (ME, 2020)
Agreement Reliability evaluation
Strong agreement When there is a certain number of papers in a related field and there is no contradiction between them, or when there is an expertโ€™s consent
Intermediate agreement When the number of papers is constant but it is difficult to judge the evidence based on a minority opinion or when a small number of experts have different opinions
Limited agreement When the number of papers is very small or it is difficult to judge the reliability of the papers due to differences of opinion among experts or the contents of the papers

๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์€ ์œ ์—ญ ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜์ฒด์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ์ฆ๋ฐœ๋Ÿ‰, ์œ ๋Ÿ‰ ๋ฐ ๊ฐ•์šฐ ์œ ์ถœ๋ฅ ์„ ๋ณ€ํ™”์‹œ์ผœ ์ˆ˜์งˆ์— ์งโ‹…๊ฐ„์ ‘์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค(Murdoch et al., 2000; Yi et al., 2016). IPCC์˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์™€ ๋ฌผ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ˆ˜์ž์›์€ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋งค์šฐ ์ทจ์•ฝํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—, ์ˆ˜์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„์— ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•œ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(IPCC, 2013). ํŠนํžˆ, ๊ธฐ์˜จ์˜ ์ƒ์Šน์€ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์— ์ง์ ‘์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ํ™”ํ•™์  ๋ฐ ์ƒํ™”ํ•™์  ๋ฐ˜์‘์†๋„๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜์–ด ํ”Œ๋ž‘ํฌํ†ค์˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ์„ ๋†’์—ฌ ์กฐ๋ฅ˜์ฆ์‹์ด ํ™•๋Œ€๋˜๊ณ , ๋ถ€์˜์–‘ํ™” ๋“ฑ์˜ ์ˆ˜์งˆ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Fang and Stefan, 2009; Jung, Kim et al., 2011; Murdoch et al., 2000; Shin et al., 2014). ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์ˆ˜์ฒด์˜ ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์  ํ˜ผํ•ฉํŠน์„ฑ์ด ๋ณ€ํ™”๋˜์–ด ๋ฌผ์งˆ์ˆœํ™˜์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ, ํ‘œ์ธต์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์€ ํ˜ธ์†Œ ๋‚ด ์„ฑ์ธตํ˜„์ƒ์„ ๋”์šฑ ๊ฐ•ํ™”์‹œ์ผœ ๋ฌผ์˜ ์ˆ˜์ง์ด๋™์„ ์ œํ•œํ•˜๊ณ , ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์‹ฌ์ธต์ˆ˜์˜ ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ๋Š” ๊ฐ์†Œ๋˜๊ณ , ํƒ„์†Œ, ์งˆ์†Œ, ์ธ ๋“ฑ์˜ ์˜์–‘๋ฌผ์งˆ ์ˆœํ™˜์ด ์ €๊ฐ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Ahn and Han, 2010; Boyce et al., 2010; Carter et al., 1999; Han et al., 2010; IPCC, 2001; Murdoch et al., 2000; Pearl and Paul, 2012; Stefan and Sinokrot, 1993; Stockle et al., 1992).

๊ตญ๋‚ด์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋ฌผ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ํ•œ๊ตญํŒ ๊ทธ๋ฆฐ๋‰ด๋”œ, ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ๋Œ€์‘ ๋ฌผ๊ด€๋ฆฌ, 2050๋…„ ํƒ„์†Œ์ค‘๋ฆฝ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ ๋“ฑ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ •์ฑ…์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊นจ๋—ํ•˜๊ณ  ์•ˆ์ „ํ•œ ๋ฌผ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์ฒด๊ณ„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•, ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ๋Œ€์‘ ์ˆ˜์ž์› ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์ฒด๊ณ„ ๊ตฌ์ถ• ๋ฐ ์ทจ์•ฝ์„ฑ ํ‰๊ฐ€, ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ ์œ ์—ญ ๋‚ด ๋ฌผ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์˜ ํ•„์š”์„ฑ์„ ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค(MOEF, 2020; ME, 2020). ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ตญ๋‚ด์˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์˜ํ•œ ๋ฌผ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐ์ƒ, ๊ฐ•์šฐโ‹…๊ฐ€๋ญ„โ‹…ํ™์ˆ˜, ํ•˜์ฒœ์œ ๋Ÿ‰, ๋“ฑ์˜ ์–‘์ ์ธ ๋ถ„์•ผ์— ์ง‘์ค‘๋˜์–ด ์™”์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜์งˆ ๋ฐ ์ˆ˜์ƒํƒœ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”์™€ ์ทจ์•ฝ์„ฑํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋ถ„์•ผ๋Š” ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธํกํ•œ ์‹ค์ •์ด๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ตญ์†Œ์  ๋ฐ ์ง€์—ญ์  ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๋Š” ์œ ์—ญ๋ณ„ ์ˆ˜์งˆ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜โ‹…์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„ ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํŒจํ„ด์„ ์•ผ๊ธฐํ•จ์—๋„ ์ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž๋ฃŒ ๋ฐ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•œ ์‹ค์ •์ด๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ, ํ•œ๊ฐ•์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋Š” ํ•˜์ฒœ ํ‘œ๋ฅ˜์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ง์ ‘ ์ทจ์ˆ˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ƒ์ˆ˜์›์œผ๋กœ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ˆ˜์งˆ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์ทจ์•ฝํ•˜์—ฌ ์ˆ˜์งˆ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์š”๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์œ ์—ญ์ด๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๊ทนํ•œ๊ฐ€๋ญ„ ๋ฐ ํ™์ˆ˜, ์ˆ˜์˜จ๋ณ€ํ™” ๋“ฑ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์žฅ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์งˆ๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ์ทจ์•ฝ์„ฑ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋‹ค๋ณ€ํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ธฐํ›„ํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ณผ ์œ ์—ญํ™˜๊ฒฝ์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ˆ˜์งˆ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์ฒด๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค.

๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” i) ๊ตญ์™ธ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์˜ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์งˆ๋ณ€ํ™” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์‚ฌ๋ก€, ๊ด€๊ณ„์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ทจ์•ฝ์„ฑ ํ‰๊ฐ€๋ฐฉ๋ฒ• ๋“ฑ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋™ํ–ฅ์„ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜์—ฌ, ๊ตญ๋‚ด ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์— ์ ํ•ฉํ•œ ๊ธฐํ›„์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€๊ธฐ๋ฒ• ์ ์šฉ์˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜๊ณ , ii) ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ๊ธฐ์˜จ ๋ฐ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์™€ ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ •๋Ÿ‰์  ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์™€ ์ƒ๊ด€์„ฑ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ๋กœ iii) ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์˜ 4๋Œ€์ˆ˜๊ณ„(๋‚จํ•œ๊ฐ•, ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ•, ํ•œ๊ฐ•, ์•ˆ์„ฑ์ฒœ)์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค. iv) ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์˜ํ•ด ์˜ˆ์ธก๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ˆ˜ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์„ ์ด๋ก ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ณ ์ฐฐํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1 Research site

ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์€ ๋ถ์œ„ 36ยฐ30หŠ~38ยฐ5หŠ, ๋™๊ฒฝ 126ยฐ24หŠ~129ยฐ02หŠ์˜ ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ์ค‘์•™๋ถ€์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋‚จํ•œ ์ œ1์˜ ํ•˜์ฒœ์œผ๋กœ์„œ ์ˆ˜์ง€์ƒ(Dendtritic)๊ณผ ์„ ํ˜•(Fanshape)์ด ํ˜ผํ•ฉ๋œ ๋ณตํ•ฉ์ƒ(Multiple type)์˜ ํ•˜์ฒœํ˜•์ƒ์˜ ์œ ์—ญ์œผ๋กœ ์ „ ๊ตญํ† ๋ฉด์ ์˜ ์•ฝ 23% ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์œ ์—ญ๋ฉด์  34,473 km2(์ž„์ง„๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ 8,118 km2 ๋ฐ ๋ถํ•œ์ง€์—ญ 8,455 km2 ํฌํ•จ), ์œ ๋กœ์—ฐ์žฅ 481.7 km, ์œ ์—ญ ํ‰๊ท ํญ 55.8 km, ์œ ์—ญํ˜•์ƒ ๊ณ„์ˆ˜ 0.119๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๋Š”๋‹ค. ์œ ์—ญ ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋Š” ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ•๊ณผ ๋‚จํ•œ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜๊ณ„, ํ•œ๊ฐ•๋ณธ๋ฅ˜๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ ์ง€๋ฉฐ, ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ•์˜ ์œ ์—ญ๋ฉด์ ์€ 10,834 km2, ๊ฐ„์ฒ™์œ ๋กœ ์—ฐ์žฅ์€ 317.5 km๋กœ์„œ, ๋‹จ๋ฐœ๋ น์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์›ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋‚จ์„œ๋ฅ˜ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์†Œ์–‘๊ฐ•, ํ™์ฒœ๊ฐ• ๋“ฑ ์ง€์ฒœ์„ ํ•ฉํ•œ ํ›„ ์–‘์ˆ˜๋ฆฌ์—์„œ ๋‚จํ•œ๊ฐ•๊ณผ ํ•ฉ๋ฅ˜๋˜์–ด์ง„๋‹ค. ๋‚จํ•œ๊ฐ•์€ ์œ ์—ญ๋ฉด์ ์ด 12.514 km2, ๊ฐ„์ฒ™์œ ๋กœ ์—ฐ์žฅ์€ 375 km๋กœ์„œ ๊ฐ•์›๋„ ํƒœ๋ฐฑ์‹œ ๊ณ ๋ชฉ๋‚˜๋ฌด ์ƒ˜์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์›ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋‚จ์„œ๋ฅ˜ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ์ฃผ ๋ถ€๊ทผ์—์„œ ๋ถ์„œ๋กœ ์ „๋ฅ˜ํ•œ ํ›„ ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ•๊ณผ ํ•ฉ๋ฅ˜๋œ๋‹ค(Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. Han-river Basin and locations of the monitored watershed sites. Four streams (Namhan-gang, Bukhan-gang, Han-gang, and Anseong-cheon) were obtained within Han-river Basin.
../../Resources/kswe/KSWE.2022.38.1.19/PIC663F.png

2.2 Collection of air and water temperature data

ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์˜ ์ฃผ์š” ์ˆ˜๊ณ„์ธ ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ•, ๋‚จํ•œ๊ฐ•, ํ•œ๊ฐ•, ์•ˆ์„ฑ์ฒœ์˜ ์ˆ˜์งˆ์ธก์ •๋ง 433์ง€์ ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ 1997๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2020๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ 24๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ์ธก์ •๋œ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(NIER, 2021). ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ ์„œ์šธโ‹…๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ƒ ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ์›”ํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ž๋ฃŒ(KMA, 2021b)๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด, ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋ณ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์˜จ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ํ™•์ธํ•˜๊ณ  ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์„ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

2.3 Future climate scenario

๋ฏธ๋ž˜ 80๋…„(์˜ˆ์ธก๊ตฌ๊ฐ„, 2021~2100๋…„)๊นŒ์ง€์˜ ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋ณ„ ์›” ํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ์˜ˆ์ธก์€ ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋ณ„ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค(Representative Concentration Pathways; RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5)๋ณ„๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(KMA, 2021a). ํ•œ๊ฐ• ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ํ–‰์ •๊ตฌ์—ญ์€ ํ•œ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋Š” 36๊ฐœ, ๋‚จํ•œ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋Š” 18๊ฐœ, ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋Š” 8๊ฐœ, ์•ˆ์„ฑ์ฒœ ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋Š” 8๊ฐœ ์ด 70๊ฐœ ์‹œ๊ตฐ๊ตฌ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ณ„ ์›”ํ‰๊ท ๊ณผ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ์„ ์‚ฐ์ถœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ, RCP 2.5 ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ฆ‰์‹œ ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค ๊ฐ์ถ• ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜์—ฌ 2100๋…„์˜ CO2 ๋†๋„๊ฐ€ 420 ppm์ด ๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋ฉฐ, RCP 4.5๋Š” ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค ์ €๊ฐ ์ •์ฑ…์ด ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ์‹คํ˜„๋˜์–ด CO2 ๋†๋„๊ฐ€ 540 ppm์ด ๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, RCP 6.0๋Š” ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค ์ €๊ฐ ์ •์ฑ…์ด ์–ด๋А ์ •๋„ ์‹คํ˜„ํ•˜์—ฌ CO2 ๋†๋„๊ฐ€ 670 ppm์ด ๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, RCP 8.5๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ ์ถ”์„ธ๋Œ€๋กœ ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค๋ฅผ ๋ฐฐ์ถœํ•˜์—ฌ CO2 ๋†๋„๊ฐ€ 940 ppm์ด ๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์˜ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์ด๋‹ค. ๊ฐ RCP ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ฒญ์—์„œ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ์ƒ์„ธ์ง€์—ญ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์˜ˆ์ธก๋ชจ๋ธ์ด๋ฉฐ, 12.5 km ๊ณต๊ฐ„ํ•ด์ƒ๋„์˜ ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ํ†ต๊ณ„์  ์ƒ์„ธํ™” ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ 1 km ๊ฒฉ์ž๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋œ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์ด๋‹ค. 400๋…„ ์ œ์–ด์ ๋ถ„ RCP 4์ข…์„ ์ด์šฉํ•œ ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค 4์ข…(RegCM (Giorgi et al., 2012), SNURCM (Kang et al., 2005), GRIMs (Juang et al., 1997), WRF (Skamarock et al., 2005))์„ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ํ†ต๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์„ธํ™”๋œ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์ด๋‹ค.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1 Overseas research on water quality change by climate change

๊ตญ์™ธ์—์„œ์˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์™€ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ์ˆ˜์งˆ๋ณ€ํ™” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ธฐํ›„์™€ ์œ ์—ญํ™˜๊ฒฝ์— ์ ํ•ฉํ•œ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐํ›„์˜ˆ์ธก ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์™€ ์ˆ˜์งˆํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋ชจํ˜• ๋“ฑ์˜ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ-์ˆ˜์งˆ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ˆ˜์งˆ์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ณ  ์ทจ์•ฝ์„ฑ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ๋Š” Minnesota์ฃผ 36๊ฐœ ํ•˜์ฒœ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ ๊ฐ„์˜ ์„ ํ˜•ํšŒ๊ท€๋ถ„์„, Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model (CCC/GCM)์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์˜จ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ CO2 ๋†๋„๊ฐ€ 2๋ฐฐ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด, 4~10์›”์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์€ 4.3ยฐC ์ƒ์Šน, ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ 4.1ยฐC ์ƒ์Šน๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Pilgrim et al., 1998). ์˜๊ตญ์—์„œ๋Š” Yorkshire ์ง€๋ฐฉ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ Ouse River ์œ ์—ญ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ 6๊ฐ€์ง€ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์™€ Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat (SWAT) ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ชจ๋ธ ์˜ˆ์ธก ์‹ ๋ขฐ๋„๋ฅผ ๋†’์ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด Monte-Carlo ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์œ ์—ญ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ธฐํ›„ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—์„œ ์ฆ๋ฐœ์‚ฐ์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , ์œ ์—ญ ๋‚ด TN์˜ ์˜ค์—ผ ๋ถ€ํ•˜๋Ÿ‰์€ 6%์—์„œ 27%๊นŒ์ง€, TP์˜ ์˜ค์—ผ ๋ถ€ํ•˜๋Ÿ‰์€ 5%์—์„œ 34%๊นŒ์ง€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Bouraoui et al., 2002). ์ดํ›„, Morrill et al. (2005)์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์˜ ์ฃผ์š”ํ•˜์ฒœ 43๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ž๋ฃŒ์˜ ์„ ํ˜•๊ณผ ๋น„์„ ํ˜• ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๊ณ , Special Report on Emission Scenarios 3 (SRES3) ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ๋ถ„์„์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐํ›„์˜ ๋ณ€๋™์„ฑ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๊ธฐ์˜จ 1ยฐC ์ƒ์Šน์€ 0.6~0.8ยฐC์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์„ ์ƒ์Šน์‹œํ‚ฌ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ์„ ํ˜•๊ด€๊ณ„๋ณด๋‹ค ๋น„์„ ํ˜• ๋ชจ๋ธ์— ์˜ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์˜จ-์ˆ˜์˜จ ๊ด€๊ณ„์„ฑ์„ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜๊ธฐ์— ์ ํ•ฉํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ, ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ๋Š” ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ ๋†๋„๊ฐ€ ๋”์šฑ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๋ฒ”์œ„๋กœ ๋–จ์–ด์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ˆ˜์ƒ์ƒ๋ฌผ์˜ ์ƒ์กด์— ์œ„ํ˜‘์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Stefan and Preudโ€™homme (2007)์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ค‘๋ถ€์˜ ๋ฏธ์‹œ์‹œํ”ผ ๊ฐ• ์œ ์—ญ์—์„œ 11๊ฐœ ํ•˜์ฒœ์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์˜จ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ์„ ํ˜•์  ๊ด€๊ณ„์„ฑ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ์ผ(daily) ๋‹จ์œ„ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด Tw(์ˆ˜์˜จ, ยฐC)=5.0+ 0.75ร—Ta(๊ธฐ์˜จ, ยฐC), ์ฃผ(weekly) ๋‹จ์œ„ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ Tw=2.9+0.86ร—Ta์˜ ์ƒ๊ด€์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ผ๊ณผ ์ฃผ ๋‹จ์œ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๊ด€๊ณ„์„ฑ์ด ๋‹ค์†Œ ๋ณ€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜์‹ฌ ๋ฐ ํญ ๋“ฑ ํ•˜์ฒœ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์˜ ์ง€์ฒด ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์ˆ˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์—์„œ ์ˆ˜ ์ผ ๋ฒ”์œ„์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Komatsu et al. (2007)์€ ์ผ๋ณธ์˜ Shimajigawa ์œ ์—ญ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹จ์ผ General Circulation Model (GCM) ๋ชจํ˜•๊ณผ A2 ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„ ๋ฐ ์ˆ˜์˜จ, ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ, ์˜์–‘๋ฌผ์งˆ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์žฅ๊ธฐ์  ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ 10์—ฌ ๋…„๊ฐ„(1991~2001๋…„)์˜ ๊ด€์ธก ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜(2091~2100๋…„)์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์งˆ์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, 2090๋…„๋Œ€์˜ ํ‰๊ท  ํ‘œ์ธต ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ 1990๋…„๋Œ€ ๋Œ€๋น„ 3.4ยฐC ์ƒ์Šน๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์—ด ์„ฑ์ธต๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œ์ผœ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์•ฝ์ธต์ด ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด, ํ˜ธ๊ธฐ์„ฑ ๋ถ„ํ•ด๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์ฒด ๋‚ด ์‚ฐ์†Œ์˜ ์†Œ๋น„๋Ÿ‰์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์ €์‚ฐ์†Œ ํ˜„์ƒ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ํ‡ด์ ๋ฌผ์—์„œ์˜ ์ธ ์šฉ์ถœ์ด ์ด‰์ง„๋˜์–ด ์‹ฌ์ธต์—์„œ์˜ ์ธ์˜ ๋†๋„์™€ ์–‘์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋งํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ํ˜๊ธฐ ์กฐ๊ฑด์˜ ํ‡ด์ ๋ฌผ์—์„œ ์ธ์˜ ์šฉ์ถœ์€ ์ˆ˜์ง ํ™•์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ํ‘œ์ธต์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋™๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์‹๋ฌผ์„ฑ ํ”Œ๋ž‘ํฌํ†ค์˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ์œ ๋ฐœ๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์—ฐํ•ฉ(European Union)์—์„œ๋Š” Climate, Hydrochemistry and Economics of Surface-Water System (CHESS)์—์„œ๋Š” ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ์ผํ™˜์œผ๋กœ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์˜ ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ์œ ์—ญ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์ˆ˜์งˆ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , SWAT๊ณผ QUESTOR ๋“ฑ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”๋กœ ์ดํ•œ ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ-์ˆ˜์งˆ์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Park et al., 2009). Fang and Stefan (2009)์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•œ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋Š” 209๊ฐœ์˜ ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ 27๊ฐœ์˜ ์œ ํ˜•์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ํ•˜๊ณ , 1์ฐจ์›์˜ ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜ ์ˆ˜์งˆ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ธ one-dimensional year-round lake water quality model (MINLAKE96)์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์ˆ˜์˜จ, ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ, ์–ผ์Œ ๋ฐ ๋ˆˆ ๋ฎ์Œ์„ ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ด์‚ฐํ™”ํƒ„์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ 2๋ฐฐ๊ฐ€ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ธฐํ›„์กฐ๊ฑด์—์„œ๋Š” ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ์€ 6.7ยฐC ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ํ‘œ๋ฉด์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ 5.2ยฐC๊นŒ์ง€ ์ƒ์Šน๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์˜ ์„ฑ์ธต๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์€ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 67์ผ๊นŒ์ง€ ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™”๋˜์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์–ผ์Œ ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์€ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 90์ผ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋‹จ์ถ•๋˜๊ณ , ์–ผ์Œ๋‘๊ป˜๋Š” ์ตœ๋Œ€ 0.44 m๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ฐ์†Œ๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Whitehead et al. (2008)์€ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ๊ฐ•์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰, ์ฆ๋ฐœ ๋ฐ ์˜จ๋„ ์‹œ๊ณ„์—ด๊ณผ, ๋Œ€์ƒ ํ•˜์ฒœ์ธ Tamar, Lugg, Tame, Kennet, Tweed ๋ฐ Lambourn์˜ ์งˆ์‚ฐ์—ผ, ์•”๋ชจ๋‹ˆ์•„, ์ด์ธ, ์šฉํ•ด์„ฑ ์ธ, ํ‡ด์ ๋ฌผ, ์ˆ˜์ƒ์‹๋ฌผ๊ณผ ์ฐฉ์ƒ์‹๋ฌผ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ดํ›„ Sahoo et al. (2011)์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์บ˜๋ฆฌํฌ๋‹ˆ์•„์ฃผ์™€ ๋„ค๋ฐ”๋‹ค์ฃผ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ„์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ Lake Tahoe์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค General Circulation Models (GCMs)์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์ฒด ๋‚ด ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์  ๊ณผ์ •์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์กฐ์‚ฌํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ 38๋…„(1970~2007๋…„) ๋™์•ˆ ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๋…„ ๊ฐ„ 0.013ยฐC์˜ ์†๋„๋กœ ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ 40๋…„(2020~2040๋…„) ์ˆ˜์˜จ ์ƒ์Šน ๋˜ํ•œ ์œ ์‚ฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜ˆ์ธก๋œ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์€ ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜์˜ ์„ฑ์ธต๊ฐ•๋„๋ฅผ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œ์ผœ, ์ˆ˜์ง ํ˜ผํ•ฉ์ฃผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ 2~3๋…„์—์„œ 5๋…„ ์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™”๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์‹ฌ์ธต์˜ ์ €์‚ฐ์†Œ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์œ ๋ฐœ๋˜์–ด ์˜์–‘์—ผ๋ฅ˜์˜ ์šฉ์ถœ์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Sahoo and Schladow (2014)์€ Klamath Lake ์ง€์—ญ ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜์˜ ์—ด์—ญํ•™์  ๋ฌผ ์ˆ˜์ง€๋ฅผ Dynamic Lake Model with Water Quality (DLM-WQ) ๋ชจ๋ธ๊ณผ ๋‚œ๋ฅ˜ํ™•์‚ฐ ์ „๋‹ฌ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์—ด๊ณผ ๋ฌผ์ˆ˜์ง€๋Š” ํ˜„์—ด(11%)๋ณด๋‹ค ์ฆ๋ฐœ์—ด(35%)์˜ ์†์‹ค์— ๋” ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ณผ์˜์–‘์˜ ํ˜ธ์†Œ์—์„œ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์˜ ์„ฑ์ธตํ˜„์ƒ์˜ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ‡ด์ ๋ฌผ ๊ทผ์ฒ˜์—์„œ ์ €์‚ฐ์†Œ ํ˜„์ƒ์— ์œ ๋ฐœ๋˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์ผ์œผํ‚ฌ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Xia et al. (2014)์€ ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜, ํ•˜์ฒœ, ์—ฐ์•ˆ ์„ํ˜ธ ๋ฐ ํ•˜๊ตฌ ๋“ฑ์˜ ์ˆ˜์—ญ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ๊ณผ ์˜ˆ์ธก ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค, ๋ชจ์˜ ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฒ€ํ† ํ•˜์—ฌ ์žฅ๊ธฐ์  ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์งˆ์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๊ณ , ์˜ค์—ผ์›๊ณผ ๊ฑฐ๋™, ์ƒํ™”ํ•™๋ฐ˜์‘, ์˜ค์—ผ๋ฌผ์งˆ์˜ ์ƒํƒœํ•™์  ์˜ํ–ฅ์˜ ์ง๊ฐ„์ ‘์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ, ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์ ์šฉ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜, ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ƒ๋ฌผ์ง€ํ‘œ ๋ชจ๋‹ˆํ„ฐ๋ง ๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์งˆ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกโ‹…ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์„ ๊ณ ์ฐฐํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Kraemer et al. (2015)์€ ์ „์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ 26๊ฐœ ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„(1970~2010๋…„)์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜ ์„ฑ์ธตํ™”์˜ ์ถ”์ด์™€ ํฌ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ™•์ธํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ์ˆ˜์ธต์ด ๊นŠ์€ ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜์™€ ํ‰๊ท  ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ด ๋†’์€ ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์„ฑ์ธตํ™”์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํด ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ๊ทธ ์›์ธ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ๋ฌผ์˜ ๋ฐ€๋„์™€ ์ˆ˜์˜จ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๋น„์„ ํ˜• ๊ด€๊ณ„์™€ ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜์˜ ํ˜•ํƒœ๊ฐ€ ์„ฑ์ธตํ˜„์ƒ์˜ ํฐ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ผ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Butcher et al. (2015)์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์›ํ˜• ํ˜ธ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐ ์ €์ˆ˜์ง€ 27๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ์ž ์žฌ์  ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. One-dimensional dynamic-thermal ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ธ Lake, Ice, Snow, and Sediment Simulator (LISSS)์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ, 21์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜์˜ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ๋ถ„์„์œผ๋กœ ํ˜ธ์†Œ์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์  ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ํ‘œ์ธต์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๊ธฐ์˜จ๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ 77% ๋งŒํผ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์‹ฌ์ธต์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ์˜จ๋„๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ํฌ์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ(์•ฝ 30% ์ฆ๊ฐ€)์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด, ์ˆ˜์ง€ ํ‘œ๋ฉด์˜ ๋น™๊ฒฐ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ๋‹จ์ถ•ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์˜จ์„ฑ์ธต ๊ฐ•๋„๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ์‹ฌ์ธต ์ €์‚ฐ์†Œ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์‹ฌํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ๋‚จ์กฐ๋ฅ˜ ๊ณผ์ž‰ ์ฆ์‹์˜ ๋นˆ๋„๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋งํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๊ตญ์™ธ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์œ ์—ญ ์ˆ˜์งˆ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์‚ฌ๋ก€์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ๋ฐ”์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ•ด๋‹น์œ ์—ญ ๋ฐ ํ˜ธ์†Œ์˜ ํŠน์„ฑ์— ์ ํ•ฉํ•œ ์ˆ˜์งˆํ‰๊ฐ€๋ชจํ˜•๊ณผ ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์งˆ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ณ  ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ฃผ๋กœ SWAT๊ณผ QUESTOR, CCC/ GCM, Monte-Carlo ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•, GCM, One-dimensional year-round lake water quality model (MINLAKE96), LISSS ๋“ฑ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ-์ˆ˜์งˆ์„ ๋ณตํ•ฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์ ‘๋ชฉ์„ ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋ฌผ ์ˆ˜์š” ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋ฌผ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ์ง€์—ญ์ /์ƒํƒœํ•™์  ํŠน์„ฑ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์ ์šฉ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜๊ณผ, ์ˆ˜๋ฌธ-์ˆ˜์งˆ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์„ ์ ์šฉ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ๋œ๋‹ค.

3.2 Time trend of air and water temperature

๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด, ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ 24๋…„๊ฐ„(1997~2020๋…„)์˜ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ(Air temp.)๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ(Water temp.)์˜ ์‹œ๊ณ„์—ด ๋ถ„์„๊ณผ ์˜จ๋„ ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์„ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Fig 2).

Fig. 2. (A) Change in the annual average air and water temperatures over the period 1997~2020; (B) The relationship between air and water temperatures.
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๊ด€์ธก 24๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ์˜ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์˜ ์‹œ๊ณ„์—ด ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ํ‰๊ท  2ยฐC(์ตœ๊ณ  3.8ยฐC) ๋†’์€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์€ 0.027ยฐC year-1์™€ 0.038ยฐC year-1์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜์˜จ์˜ ์ƒ์Šน์†๋„๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์˜ ์ƒ์Šน์†๋„๋ณด๋‹ค ๋†’์€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ, ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ 10๋…„(2001~2010๋…„)์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์€ 0.016ยฐC year-1์ด์ง€๋งŒ, ์ตœ๊ทผ 10๋…„(2011~2020๋…„)์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์€ 0.019ยฐC year-1๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์–ด, ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ตœ๊ทผ์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน ์†๋„๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ด์™€ ๋น„์Šทํ•˜๊ฒŒ, ์ˆ˜์˜จ ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ 10๋…„์˜ ๋น„ํ•ด ์ตœ๊ทผ 10๋…„์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ (0.201ยฐC year-1)์ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋†’์•„์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค(Fig. 2(A)). ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ๊ด€์ธก 24๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ์กฐ์‚ฌ ์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Ÿ‰์„ ํ™•์ธํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์˜ ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„๋Š”(R2) 0.97 ์ด์ƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ํ†ต๊ณ„์  ์œ ์˜์„ฑ(p)์€ 0.005 ๋ฏธ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ ์ง์ ‘์ ์ธ ๊ด€๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ฆ‰, ๋Œ€๊ธฐ๊ธฐ์˜จ 1ยฐC ์ƒ์Šน์€ ์ˆ˜์˜จ 0.796ยฐC๋ฅผ ์ƒ์Šน์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค(Fig. 2(B)). ์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ์„ ํ–‰์—ฐ๊ตฌ(Han et al., 2010) ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ๊ธฐ์˜จ 1ยฐC ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ด 0.6~0.8ยฐC ์ƒ์Šนํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค๊ณผ ๋น„์Šทํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์€ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์— ์ง์ ‘์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ˆ˜์ฒด์˜ ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์ , ํ™”ํ•™์ , ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์  ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์ผ์œผํ‚ฌ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋งค์šฐ ๋†’๋‹ค(Ahn and Han, 2010). ํŠนํžˆ, ํ˜ธ์†Œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ํ‘œ์ธต์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ์‹ฌ์ธต๋ณด๋‹ค ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์— ์žˆ์–ด 2๋ฐฐ ์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ํ‘œ์ธต ๋น™๊ฒฐ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์ด ๋‹จ์ถ•๋˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์˜จ ์„ฑ์ธต๊ฐ•๋„๋ฅผ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚ฌ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Butcher et al., 2015). ๋˜ํ•œ, ์ˆ˜์˜จ ์ƒ์Šน์€ ๋ฌผ์˜ ๋ฐ€๋„(๋ฌผ์˜ ํ‰๊ท ๋ฐ€๋„๋Š” 4ยฐC์ผ ๋•Œ ์ตœ๋Œ€)๋ฅผ ๊ฐ์†Œ์‹œํ‚ค๊ฒŒ ๋˜์–ด ๋ถ€์œ ์„ฑ ํ† ์‚ฌ ๋ฐ ๋ถ€์œ ๋ฌผ์˜ ์นจ๊ฐ•์†๋„๋ฅผ ๋†’์ด๊ฒŒ ๋˜๊ณ , ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ˆ˜์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„์— ๋ถ€์ •์  ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค(U. S. EPA, 2001). ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ, ์ˆ˜์ฒด๋‚ด์˜ ํ™”ํ•™์  ๋ฐ˜์‘์—์„œ ๋˜ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ด‰์ง„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š”๋ฐ, ๋ฌผ์† ์œ ๊ธฐ๋ฌผ์˜ ๋ถ„ํ•ด์†๋„๊ฐ€ ์ด‰์ง„๋˜์–ด, ์ด์‚ฐํ™”ํƒ„์†Œ์˜ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์••์„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œ์ผœ ํƒ„์†Œ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰ ๋˜ํ•œ ๋†’์•„์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Park and Chung, 2018).

3.3 Change of seasonal water temperature

ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ณ„์ ˆ๋ณ„ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด 1997๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2020๋…„์˜ ๊ด€์ธก๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ๋ด„(3~4์›”), ์—ฌ๋ฆ„(5~8์›”), ๊ฐ€์„(9~10์›”), ๊ฒจ์šธ(11~2์›”)๋กœ ๊ตฌ๋ถ„ํ•˜์—ฌ, ์›”๋ณ„ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์„ ๋น„๊ต ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Fig. 3). ๋˜ํ•œ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ ๋ฐ ์ˆ˜์˜จ ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ (ยฐC year-1)์˜ ์›”๋ณ„ ์ถ”์ด๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์—ฌ 24๋…„๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ๊ณ„์ ˆ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Fig. 4).

Fig. 3. Change rate of monthly average temperature over the past 24 years (1997 to 2020).
../../Resources/kswe/KSWE.2022.38.1.19/PIC667F.png
Fig. 4. Trend of monthly average air and water temperatures over the past 24 years (1997 to 2020).
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๋ด„(3~4์›”)์˜ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ํ•˜๊ฐ•์„ ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๊พธ์ค€ํžˆ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. 3์›”์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์˜ ํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์•ฝ 2.2ยฐC ๋†’์•˜์œผ๋ฉฐ, 4์›”์€ 1.2ยฐC ๋†’๊ฒŒ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์˜ ์˜จ๋„์ฐจ๋Š” ๊ฐ์†Œ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ, 3์›”์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ๊ด€์ธก๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ (0.08ยฐC year-1)์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํŠนํžˆ, 3์›” ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน(0.33ยฐC year-1)๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน(0.33ยฐC year-1)์€ ์ตœ๊ทผ 10๋…„(2010~2020๋…„)๊ฐ„ ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ, ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์›”์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์€ ์˜จ๋„ ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ๋กœ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. 4์›”์€ 1997๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดํ›„ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์€ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ƒ์Šน ์†๋„๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์ฐจ์ด๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค(์ˆ˜์˜จ ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ , 0.06ยฐC year-1, ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ , -0.04ยฐC year-1). ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ด„์ฒ  ๊ธฐ์˜จ ๋ฐ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์€ ์ €์ˆ˜์ง€, ๋Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ •์ฒด ์ˆ˜์—ญ์—์„œ ์ˆ˜์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„์˜ 1์ฐจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ์„ ๋†’์ด๊ฒŒ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์‹๋ฌผํ”Œ๋ž‘ํฌํ†ค์˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ ์†๋„์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ๋Šฆ๋ด„๊ณผ ์ดˆ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์— ์šฐ์ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋…น์กฐ๋ฅ˜์˜ ์ถœํ˜„ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์ผ์ฐ ๋ฐœํ˜„ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์šฐ์ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๋„ ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™” ๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Yun et al., 2019).

์—ฌ๋ฆ„(5~8์›”)์˜ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๋šœ๋ ทํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜๋Š” ์ถ”์„ธ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์œผ๋ฉฐ ํŠนํžˆ, 1997๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดํ›„ 5์›”๊ณผ 6์›”์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน(0.08ยฐC year-1)์€ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน(0.04ยฐC year-1)์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์˜จ๋„์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์ด ๋‘๋“œ๋Ÿฌ์ง€๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ, 8์›” ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ด 2016๋…„์— ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•œ ๋ฐ์— ์ด์–ด, 2010๋…„๋Œ€์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ๋งคํ•ด ์—ญ๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ๊ฒฝ์‹ ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. 2018๋…„์˜ 8์›” ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ์—ญ๋Œ€ ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๋ก๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , 8์›” ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ด ๋‹ค์„ฏ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์•˜๋˜ ๋…„์ด 2016๋…„, 2018๋…„, 2019๋…„์— ์ง‘์ค‘์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜, ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์˜ํ•œ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ ์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋šœ๋ ทํ•ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ๊ทนํ•œ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์˜ ๊ณ ์˜จ ํ˜„์ƒ ๋นˆ๋„๊ฐ€ 1990๋…„๋Œ€ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜ ์ดํ›„, ํŠนํžˆ 2010๋…„๋Œ€ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜ ์ดํ›„๋กœ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ด๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์˜ ์˜จ๋„์ฐจ๋Š” 5์›”๊ณผ 6์›”์— 1.7ยฐC๊ณผ 0.3ยฐC์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ด ๋†’์€ ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, 7์›”๊ณผ 8์›”์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๊ฐ 0.4ยฐC, 1.4ยฐC ๋‚ฎ์•„์ง€๋ฉด์„œ ์˜จ๋„์ฐจ๊ฐ€ ์—ญ์ „๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ์ˆ˜์˜จ์˜ ์ง€์†์  ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ์ฒด๋ฅ˜์‹œ๊ฐ„์— ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•œ ๋‚จ์กฐ๋ฅ˜๋Š” ์ถœํ˜„ ๋นˆ๋„์™€ ๋ฒˆ์„ฑ ๊ฐ•๋„๊ฐ€ ๋šœ๋ ทํ•ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋ฃŒ๋œ๋‹ค(Elliott, 2010). ํ˜ธ์†Œ์ˆ˜์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๊ณ ์˜จ์˜ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ด ๊ธธ์–ด์ง€๋ฉด์„œ ์„ฑ์ธตํ™” ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„๋„ ๋˜ํ•œ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์ง€์†๋˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์ฒด์˜ ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์  ์•ˆ์ •ํ™” ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋„ ๊ธธ์–ด์ง€๋ฉฐ, ์ด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋‚จ์กฐ๋ฅ˜ ์ถœํ˜„์ด ์ง€์†๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์ปค์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ, ๋‚จ์กฐ๋ฅ˜์ธ Microcystis sp.๋Š” 25ยฐC ์ด์ƒ์—์„œ 10,000 cells mL-1์„ ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•˜๋ฉฐ, 28ยฐC ์ด์ƒ์—์„œ๋Š” ํ˜„์ €ํžˆ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ์ˆ˜ํ™”ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ ค์ ธ ์žˆ๋‹ค(Paerl and Paul, 2012). ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ, ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ ์— ์ƒ์Šน๋œ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ๊ธด ์ฒด๋ฅ˜์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋Š” ์œ ์—ญ์—์„œ๋Š” Microcystis sp.์˜ ๋ฒˆ์„ฑ์ด ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค(Yu et al., 2014). ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, Microcystis sp.๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋ฉธ ์‹œ ๋ง›โ‹…๋ƒ„์ƒˆ๋ฌผ์งˆ ๋ฐ ๋…์†Œ๋ฌผ์งˆ์„ ์œ ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ •์ˆ˜ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํšจ์œจ๊ณผ ๋จน๋Š”๋ฌผ ์ˆ˜์งˆ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Park, 2007). ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ ์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ด ๋†’์•„์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉด BOD ๋†๋„๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๊ณ ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค(Han et al., 2010).

๊ฐ€์„(9~10์›”) ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ๋ด„๊ณผ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ ๊ณผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ, ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์€ ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ(i.e., ์Œ์˜ ์ถ”์„ธ๋กœ ๋ฐ˜์ „)์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค(9์›” ์ˆ˜์˜จ ๊ฐ์†Œ์œจ -0.04ยฐC year-1, 10์›” ์ˆ˜์˜จ ๊ฐ์†Œ์œจ -0.03ยฐC year-1). 9์›”๊ณผ 10์›”์˜ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ์˜จ๋ณด๋‹ค 0.62ยฐC๊ณผ 2.77ยฐC ๋†’์€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ด ์ˆ˜์˜จ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋†’์€ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ์—ญ์ „๋˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ด ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋†’์•„์ง€๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๊ฒจ์šธ(11~2์›”) ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์˜ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๊ฐ€์„์ฒ  ์Œ์˜ ์ถ”์„ธ๋กœ ๋ฐ˜์ „๋œ ์ดํ›„๋กœ 12์›”๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ฐ์†Œ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒˆ๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ, ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ฐ์†Œ์œจ์€ 11์›”๊ณผ 12์›”์— ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋‘๋“œ๋Ÿฌ์ง€๊ฒŒ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค(11์›” ๊ธฐ์˜จ ๊ฐ์†Œ์œจ -0.04ยฐC year-1, 12์›” ์ˆ˜์˜จ ๊ฐ์†Œ์œจ -0.02ยฐC year-1). ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์˜ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ์˜จ๋„์ฐจ๋Š” ํƒ€ ๊ณ„์ ˆ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ํฐ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์— ๋น„ํ•ด 11์›” 4.21ยฐC, 12์›” 5.47ยฐC, 1์›” 5.44ยฐC, 2์›” 3.81ยฐC ๋†’์€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์–ด, 12์›”๊ณผ 1์›”์ด ์ผ๋…„ ์ค‘ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์˜จ๋„์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€์„๊ณผ ๊ฒจ์šธ์ฒ ์˜ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ด ํ•˜๊ฐ•ํ•จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ €์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ธฐ์— ์šฐ์ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ทœ์กฐ๋ฅ˜์ธ Stephanodiscus hantzschii, Synedra ๋“ฑ์€ ์ถœํ˜„ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋นจ๋ผ์ง€๊ณ , ๊ฐœ์ฒด ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ •์ˆ˜์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ๊ณต์ •์˜ ์—ฌ๊ณผ์ง€ ํ์ƒ‰์œผ๋กœ ์ •์ˆ˜์žฅ ์šด์˜ ์žฅ์• ๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๋ž˜ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋ฃŒ๋œ๋‹ค(Kim et al., 2014; Son et al., 2018).

3.4 Prediction of temperature change in the Han-River Basin by future climate scenario

์ธ๊ฐ„ ํ™œ๋™์ด ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ๋ณต์‚ฌ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ ์˜จ์‹ค ๊ฐ€์Šค ๋†๋„๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5๋ณ„๋กœ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ 80๋…„(~2100s)์˜ ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ(Fig. 5)๊ณผ ์œ ์—ญ ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋ณ„(ํ•œ๊ฐ•, ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ•, ๋‚จํ•œ๊ฐ•, ์•ˆ์„ฑ์ฒœ) ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ๋ณ€ํ™” ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค(Fig. 6).

Fig. 5. Time series of air temperature under each of the extended RCP scenarios for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. Historical air temperature (black) covers the period 1997-2020, and the RCPs and extended RCPs are continued from 2021 and 2100. Time series of the annual global mean surface air temperature for RCP 2.6 (blue), RCP 4.5 (green), RCP 6.0 (orange), and RCP 8.5 (red).
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Fig. 6. Predicted air temperature under each of the extended RCP scenarios for (A) RCP 2.6, (B) RCP 4.5, (C) RCP 6.0, and (D) RCP 8.5 of the four streams (Han-gang (blue), Anseong-Cheon (red), Namhan-gang (pink), and Bukhan-gang (green)) obtained within the Han-river Basin.
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์ง€๊ธˆ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ฆ‰์‹œ ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค ๊ฐ์ถ•์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜์˜€์„ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ(RCP 2.6) ๋ฏธ๋ž˜(2021~2100๋…„) ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์˜ ์—ฐํ‰๊ท ๊ธฐ์˜จ์€ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 0.32ยฐC ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค ์ €๊ฐ ์ •์ฑ…์ด ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ์‹คํ˜„๋˜์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ(RCP 4.5)๋Š” ์ตœ๋Œ€ 1.18ยฐC ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค ์ €๊ฐ ์ •์ฑ…์ด ์–ด๋А ์ •๋„ ์‹คํ˜„(RCP 6.0)๋˜์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 2.14ยฐC ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ํ˜„์žฌ ์ถ”์„ธ๋Œ€๋กœ ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ(RCP 8.5)๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, 3.51ยฐC ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค(Table 2). ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์—์„œ์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์€ ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค ๊ฐ์ถ•์ˆ˜ํ–‰ ์—ฌ๋ถ€์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ 3ยฐC ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์˜จ๋„์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค(Fig. 5). ๊ธฐ์˜จ ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์€ RCP 2.6 ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—์„œ 0.0042~0.0044ยฐC year-1, RCP 4.5 ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—์„œ 0.0249~0.0271ยฐC year-1, RCP 6.0 ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—์„œ 0.0388~0.0410ยฐC year-1, RCP 8.5 ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—์„œ 0.0575~0.0597ยฐC year-1์˜ ์†๋„๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์˜ˆ์ธก๊ธฐ๊ฐ„(2021~2100๋…„) ๋™์•ˆ ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋ณ„์˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๊ธฐ์˜จ์€ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—์„œ ํ•œ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜๊ณ„, ์•ˆ์„ฑ์ฒœ ์ˆ˜๊ณ„, ๋‚จํ•œ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜๊ณ„, ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜๊ณ„ ์ˆœ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ด ๋‚ฎ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค(Fig. 6). ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ฐ ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋ณ„ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์„ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜๋ฉด, ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ•์ˆ˜๊ณ„์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์€ ์ตœ์†Œ(RCP 2.6) 0.0044ยฐC year-1, ์ตœ๋Œ€(RCP 8.5) 0.0597ยฐC year-1๋กœ ํ•ด๋‹น ์ˆ˜๊ณ„์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ƒ์Šน์†๋„๊ฐ€ ๋†’๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด์—, ์•ˆ์„ฑ์ฒœ์ˆ˜๊ณ„์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์€ ์ตœ์†Œ(RCP 2.6) 0.0042ยฐC year-1, ์ตœ๋Œ€(RCP 8.5) 0.0575ยฐC year-1๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์— ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•œ ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋Š” ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜๊ณ„์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฏ€๋กœ ์ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์œ ์—ญ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋ฃŒ๋œ๋‹ค.

Table 2. Predicted air temperatures for the period of 2021~2100, for four scenarios driven by CO2alone
Scenarios Description CO2 conc. (2100) yearly air temp. (2100s)
RCP2.6 Instantaneous greenhouse gas reduction 420 ppm + 0.32ยฐC
RCP4.5 Substantial achievement of greenhouse gas reduction policy 540 ppm + 1.18ยฐC
RCP6.0 Fair achievement of greenhouse gas reduction policy 670 ppm + 2.14ยฐC
RCP8.5 Greenhouse gas emission as current trend 940 ppm + 3.51ยฐC

3.5 Future water quality in the Han River Basin

๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ์˜ˆ์ธก๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜(2020~2100๋…„) ๊ธฐ์˜จ์€ ์ƒ์Šน๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์˜ ์ƒ์Šน์€ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์— ์ง์ ‘์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋”๋ถˆ์–ด ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์ˆ˜์งˆ์€ ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ(Dissolved oxygen)์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๊ณต๊ธฐ ์ค‘ ์‚ฐ์†Œ์˜ ์šฉํ•ด๋„๋Š” ์˜จ๋„์™€ ์Œ์˜ ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—, ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ• ์ˆ˜๋ก ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ ๋†๋„๋Š” ๊ฐ์†Œ๋œ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ ์˜ ๊ณ ์˜จํ˜„์ƒ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์—์„œ๋Š” ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ๋†๋„๊ฐ€ ์ ์  ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ๊ฒจ์šธ์ฒ  ์ €์˜จ ํ˜„์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์—์„œ ๋†’์€ ์‚ฐ์†Œ์šฉํ•ด๋„๋กœ ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ๋†๋„๊ฐ€ ๋†’์•„์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜์ฒด ๋‚ด์˜ ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ์˜ ๊ฐ์†Œ๋Š” ํ˜ธ๊ธฐ์„ฑ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—์„œ ํ˜ธํกํ•˜๋Š” ์ƒ๋ฌผ์—๊ฒŒ ์น˜๋ช…์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ํ•˜์ฒœ ๋ฐ ํ˜ธ์†Œ ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ์„ ํ˜๊ธฐ์„ฑ ์ƒํƒœ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ํ‡ด์ ๋ฌผ์— ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ธˆ์†์—ผ๊ณผ ์˜ค์—ผ๋ฌผ์งˆ์„ ์‰ฝ๊ฒŒ ์šฉ์ถœ์‹œํ‚ค๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค. ํ˜ธ์†Œ ๋ฐ ์ •์ฒด์ˆ˜์—ญ์—์„œ๋Š” ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ๊ณ ์˜จํ˜„์ƒ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์„ฑ์ธต ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋˜์–ด, ๋ฌผ์˜ ์ˆ˜์ง ์ด๋™์ด ์ œํ•œ์ ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋˜์–ด, ์ฆ‰ ์ˆ˜์ง ํ˜ผํ•ฉ์ฃผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ธธ์–ด์ ธ ์‹ฌ์ธต ๋‚ด ๋นˆ ์‚ฐ์†Œ(Hypoxia) ํ˜„์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜์–‘์—ผ๋ฅ˜ ์šฉ์ถœ์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค(Boyce et al., 2010; Sahoo et al., 2011). ์˜์–‘์—ผ๋ฅ˜(TN, TP)๋†๋„ ๋˜ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๊ณ ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. Bouraoui et al. (2002)๊ณผ Bouraoui et al. (2004)์€ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์— SWAT ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์œ ์—ญ ๋‚ด TN์™€ TP์˜ ์˜ค์—ผ ๋ถ€ํ•˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์˜ํ•˜์—ฌ TN์€ 6%์—์„œ 27%๊นŒ์ง€, TP๋Š” 5%์—์„œ 34%๊นŒ์ง€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ๊ฒจ์šธ์ฒ  ์œ ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์ด ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค.

๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๊ด€์ธก๋œ ์›”๋ณ„(๊ณ„์ ˆ๋ณ„) ๊ธฐ์˜จ๋ณ€ํ™”(1~8์›”: ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน, 9~12์›”: ์ˆ˜์˜จํ•˜๊ฐ•)๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„์— ์ฆ์‹, ์„œ์‹, ๋Œ€์‚ฌํ™œ๋™์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค. ๋ด„๊ณผ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ์ˆ˜์˜จ์˜ ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ์ƒ์Šน์€ ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ธฐ์— ์ฆ์‹ํ•˜๋Š” Anabaena sp., Microsystis sp. ๋“ฑ์˜ ๋‚จ์กฐ๋ฅ˜ ๋ฒˆ์„ฑ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋นจ๋ผ์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ์‹๊ณผ ์šฐ์ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๊ธธ์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Yun et al., 2019). ํŠนํžˆ ๋‚จ์กฐ๋ฅ˜์˜ ์ผ๋ถ€ ์ข…์€ Geosmin๊ณผ 2-MIB(2-methyl isoborneol) ๋“ฑ์˜ ๋ง›โ‹…๋ƒ„์ƒˆ ๋ฌผ์งˆ๊ณผ Microcystins ๋“ฑ์˜ ๋…์†Œ๋ฌผ์งˆ์„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œ์ผœ ์ˆ˜์งˆ์˜ ์•ˆ์ •์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ •์ˆ˜์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ๊ณต์ •์žฅ์•  ๋“ฑ์„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œํ‚ฌ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Chapra et al., 2017; Elliott, 2010). ํ˜ธ์†Œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋Š” ํ‘œ์ธต์ˆ˜์˜จ์˜ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ์„ฑ์ธตํ™” ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์ด ์—ฐ์žฅ๋˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ์ •๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋‚จ์กฐ๋ฅ˜ ์ฆ์‹๊ณผ ์šฐ์  ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋˜ํ•œ ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™”๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Paerl and Paul, 2012). ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ๊ฒจ์šธ์ฒ  ๊ธฐ์˜จ ํ•˜๊ฐ•์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ €์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ทœ์กฐ๋ฅ˜(Synedra sp. ๋“ฑ)๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ์‹ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด, ์ •์ˆ˜ ๊ณต์ •์—์„œ ์‘์ง‘๊ณผ ์นจ์ „์„ฑ์ด ์ €๊ฐ๋˜๊ณ , ๊ณต์ • ์—ฌ๊ณผ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋‹จ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด์— ํ์ƒ‰์‹œ์ผœ ๊ณต์ •์žฅ์• ๋ฅผ ์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Kim et al., 2014). ๋ฐ•ํ…Œ๋ฆฌ์•„์˜ ๋Œ€์‚ฌํ™œ๋™, ๋ฏธ์ƒ๋ฌผ ๋ฐ ๊ธฐ์ƒ์ถฉ ๋ฒˆ์‹ ๋˜ํ•œ ์กฐ๋ฅ˜ ์ฆ์‹๊ณผ ๋น„์Šทํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ˆ˜์˜จ ์ƒ์Šน์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜์–ด, ์–ด๋ฅ˜์˜ ๋ฉด์—ญ์ฒด๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์•ฝํ™”์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ , ์–ด๋ณ‘์˜ ๋ฐœ์ƒ๋ฅ ์„ ๋†’์—ฌ ์ง‘๋‹จํ์‚ฌ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์ปค์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(Klapper, 1991; Yun, 2016). ๊ฐœ์ฒด์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์ ์–ด ๋ณดํ˜ธ์ข…์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„๋ฅ˜๋˜์–ด์ง€๋Š” ์–ด์ข…๋„ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์— ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ณ„์ ˆ๋ณ„ ์ˆ˜์˜จ๋ณ€ํ™”(๊ฒจ์šธ์ฒ  ์ˆ˜์˜จํ•˜๊ฐ•, ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน)์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์—ด ์ŠคํŠธ๋ ˆ์Šค์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๊ฐœ์ฒด์˜ ์ข…๊ฐ์†Œ๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋ฃŒ๋œ๋‹ค. ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์€ ์ˆ˜์ƒ์‹๋ฌผ, ์–ด๋ฅ˜ ๋“ฑ ์ˆ˜์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„์˜ ๋ฌผ์งˆ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์™€ ํ˜ธํก๋ฅ ์„ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”์‹œ์ผœ ์˜์–‘์„ญ์ทจ์™€ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ, ๋™ํ™”์ž‘์šฉ์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜์–ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•˜์—ฌ ๋น ๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋ง์„ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•œ๋‹ค(Lee et al., 2019; Theurer et al., 1984).

4. Conclusion

์•ž์„œ ์„œ์ˆ ํ•œ ๋ฐ”์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด, ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์€ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ 10๋…„์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ตœ๊ทผ 10๋…„์˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์ด ๋†’๊ฒŒ ๊ด€์ธก๋˜์–ด ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ ์ฐจ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐ์˜จ(2100๋…„)์ƒ์Šน์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ํ˜„์žฌ ์ถ”์„ธ๋Œ€๋กœ ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ์ตœ๋Œ€ 3.51ยฐC ๊นŒ์ง€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์˜ ์ˆ˜๊ณ„ ์ค‘ ๋ถํ•œ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’๊ฒŒ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ด ์ƒ์Šนํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์•ˆ์„ฑ์ฒœ ์ˆ˜๊ณ„๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ์ƒ์Šน๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•œ๊ฐ•์œ ์—ญ์˜ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ๊ณ ์˜จํ˜„์ƒ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์€ ์ƒ์Šน๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ  ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ˆ˜์ฒด์˜ ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ๋†๋„๋Š” ์ ์  ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ฒจ์šธ์ฒ  ์ €์˜จ ํ˜„์ƒ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์‚ฐ์†Œ์šฉํ•ด๋„๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜์–ด ์šฉ์กด์‚ฐ์†Œ๋†๋„๊ฐ€ ๋†’์•„์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ๊ธฐ์˜จ ์ƒ์Šน์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ณ ์ˆ˜์˜จํ˜„์ƒ์— ์˜ํ•ด ๋ด„๊ณผ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ ์— ์ฆ์‹ํ•˜๋Š” ๋‚จ์กฐ๋ฅ˜ ๋ฒˆ์„ฑ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋นจ๋ผ์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ์‹๊ณผ ์šฐ์ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๊ธธ์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๊ฒจ์šธ์ฒ  ๊ธฐ์˜จ ํ•˜๊ฐ•์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ €์ˆ˜์˜จ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ทœ์กฐ๋ฅ˜์˜ ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ์‹์„ ์œ ๋ฐœ์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ , ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด, ์ •์ˆ˜ ๊ณต์ •์—์„œ ์‘์ง‘๊ณผ ์นจ์ „์„ฑ์ด ์ €๊ฐ๋˜๊ณ , ๊ณต์ • ์—ฌ๊ณผ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋‹จ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด์— ํ์ƒ‰์‹œ์ผœ ๊ณต์ •์žฅ์• ๋ฅผ ์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์˜จ์ƒ์Šน์€ ์ˆ˜์ƒ์‹๋ฌผ, ์–ด๋ฅ˜ ๋“ฑ ์ˆ˜์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„์˜ ๋ฌผ์งˆ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์™€ ํ˜ธํก๋ฅ ์„ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”์‹œ์ผœ ์˜์–‘์„ญ์ทจ์™€ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ, ๋™ํ™”์ž‘์šฉ์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜์–ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•˜์—ฌ ๋น ๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋ง์„ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์งˆ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ๊ด€์ธก ์ž๋ฃŒ์™€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ์ „๋ง์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ๋กœ ์œ ์—ญ๋‹จ์œ„๋ณ„ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๊ณ ์ฐฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์งˆ ์ทจ์•ฝ์„ฑ ๋ฐ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ, ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ๋Œ€์‘ ์œ ์—ญ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์ „๋žต๊ณผ ์ •์ฑ…๋ฐฉํ–ฅ ์ œ์‹œ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค.

Acknowledgement

์ด ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์€ 2021๋…„๋„ ์ •๋ถ€(๊ต์œก๋ถ€)์˜ ์žฌ์›์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ๊ตญ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์žฌ๋‹จ์˜ ์ง€์›์„ ๋ฐ›์•„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰๋œ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์‚ฌ์—…์ž„(NRF-2021R1A6A1 A10045235).

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