Mobile QR Code QR CODE : The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
Title Electricity Demand Forecasting Algorithm Development Based on the Gradient Boosting Machine by Selecting the Optimal Combination of Weather Data and Stations
Authors 김수연(Sooyeon Kim) ; 손명수(Myeongsu Son) ; 권구덕(Kuduck Kwon) ; 이두희(Duehee Lee)
DOI https://doi.org/10.5370/KIEE.2019.68.7.834
Page pp.834-843
ISSN 1975-8359
Keywords Gradient boosting machine ; Short-term demand forecasting ; Support vector machine
Abstract We predict electricity demand in a very high accuracy with various machine learning algorithms by designing optimal combinations of weather data, stations, and years. First, we create a novel forecasting structure by taking advantage of stair-wise structure of predicted weather data to increase the forecasting accuracy. Second, we test various machine learning algorithms : ridge regression, support vector machine, and gradient boosting machine (GBM). We find that the GBM has the best forecasting accuracy. Third, we select weather data, years of data, and weather stations based on root mean square errors. We also choose the weather stations by identifying a correlation between weather data and demand to compare two station-selecting methods. Accordingly, we increase the computation speed and forecasting accuracy by filtering out unrelated data. Finally, we verify our proposed algorithm by participating in the 2018 world electricity demand forecasting competition held in France.