| Title |
Study on the Feasibility of Applying Forecasted Weather Data forOperations of a Thermal Storage System |
| Keywords |
기상예보치 ; 예보오차 ; 자기상관함수 ; 확률시계열모델 Forecasted weather data ; Forecast error ; Autocorrelation function ; Stochastic time series model |
| Abstract |
In this paper, we investigated a feasibility of applying highest and lowest tem-peratures of the next day forecasted from a meteorological observatory to operation of an air- conditioning system with thermal storage. First we investigated specific characteristics of the time series of forecasted temperatures and errors in Osaka from 1994 to 1996. Since the fore-cast error is not always small, it might be difficult to use the forecasted data without correc-tion for the sizing and the control of the thermal storage system. On the other hand, the autocorrelation functions of the forecast errors decrease relatively slowly during high summer season when cooling thermal storage is required. Since the values of the autocorrelation func-tions for one day are larger than 0.4, not small, the forecast errors can be predicted by proper statistical analysis. Thus, the forecasted values of the highest temperatures for the next day were improved by using the stochastic time series models. |