| Title |
Qualitative RBI Analysis in Considered with Uncertain Variables by Probabilistic Distribution |
| Authors |
허호진(Ho-Jin Heo) ; 정재욱(Jae-Uk Jeong) ; 김주동(Joo-Dong Kim) ; 최재붕(Jae-Boong Choi) ; 최송천(Song-Chun Choi) ; 황인주(In-Ju Hwang) |
| DOI |
http://dx.doi.org/10.6110/KJACR.2013.25.2.070 |
| Keywords |
베타분포 ; 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 ; 확률분포 ; 정성적 평가 ; 위험도 기반 평가 Beta distribution ; Monte Calro simulation ; Probability distribution ; Qualitative inspection ; Risk-based Inspection |
| Abstract |
Plants which are having conditions of high temperature and pressure always are exposed to danger. In order to prevent unexpected accidents, safety management that can effectively and appropriately examine facilities is required in plant operation. RBI(Risk-Based Inspection) technology in API 581 is one of standard management technique for evaluating risk on petroleum plants. There are qualitative and quantitative assessments in RBI methodology. Quantitative evaluation step is complex and required much information, so high-risk facilities in plant are selected firstly by qualitative method. Qualitative RBI is performed by choosing the answer in prepared questionnaire. However, it is difficult to believe thoroughly results from survey including ambiguous information. In this study, the procedure of qualitative RBI analysis with considering probability distribution concept were proposed by using Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase reliability in spite of uncertain factors. In addition, qualitative risk of cooling system for LNG plant was evaluated using proposed procedure. Although 20 items of total 39 assessment items are applied to uncertain factors, risk section of high probability(89%) were verified. The detailed results were described in manuscript. |