| Title |
LS-SVM Based Modeling of Winter Time Apartment Hot Water Supply Load in District Heating System |
| DOI |
http://dx.doi.org/10.6110/KJACR.2016.28.9.355 |
| Keywords |
지역난방 ; 온수급탕부하 모델 ; 온수급탕부하 수요 예측 ; 최소 제곱 서포트 벡터 머신 District heating system ; Hot water supply load model ; Prediction of hot water supply load ; LS-SVM |
| Abstract |
Continuing to the modeling of heating load, this paper, as the second part of consecutive works, presents LS-SVM (least square support vector machine) based model of winter time apartment hot water supply load in a district heating system, so as to be used in prediction of heating energy usage. Similar, but more severely, to heating load, hot water supply load varies in highly nonlinear manner. Such nonlinearity makes analytical model of it hardly exist in the literatures. LS-SVM is known as a good modeling tool for the system, especially for the nonlinear system depended by many independent factors. We collect 26,208 data of hot water supply load over a 13-week period in winter time, from 12 heat exchangers in seven different apartments. Then part of the collected data were used to construct LS-SVM based model and the rest of those were used to test the formed model accuracy. In modeling, we first constructed the model of district heating system's hot water supply load, using the unit heating area's hot water supply load of seven apartments. Such model will be used to estimate the total hot water supply load of which the district heating system needs to provide. Then the individual apartment hot water supply load model is also formed, which can be used to predict and to control the energy consumption of the individual apartment. The results obtained show that the total hot water supply load, which will be provided by the district heating system in winter time, can be predicted within in MAPE (mean absolute percentage error). Also the individual apartment models can predict the individual apartment energy consumption for hot water supply load within in MAPE. |