Mobile QR Code QR CODE : Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering

Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering

ISO Journal TitleKorean J. Air-Cond. Refrig. Eng.
  • Open Access, Monthly
Open Access Monthly
  • ISSN : 1229-6422 (Print)
  • ISSN : 2465-7611 (Online)
Title Profitability Assessment of Water Electrolysis-based Hydrogen Production System via Sensitivity Analysis
Authors Seungho Shin ; Jihyeon Cho ; Tageui Hong ; Yeonsook Heo
DOI https://doi.org/10.6110/KJACR.2025.37.7.342
Page pp.342-350
ISSN 1229-6422
Keywords 수전해 기반 수소 생산; 수소 생산당 수익; 수익성 평가; 민감도 분석 Electrolysis-based hydrogen production; HPM; Profitability assessment; Sensitivity analysis
Abstract This study aims to analyze the economic profitability for an electrolysis-based hydrogen production system utilizing power grid supply in relation to international economic trend of hydrogen production. In detail, this study quantified key parameters of an electrolysis-based hydrogen production system impacting installation and operational cost and profit based on return on investment (ROI) via regression-based sensitivity analysis. In order to analyze the economic profitability of hydrogen production according to various energy market context, the electrolysis hydrogen production system was modeled in the TRNSYS program. Key parameters for sensitivity analysis were selected as follows: (1) hydrogen selling price, (2) industrial electricity cost, (3) discount rates from 15 countries. In this study, profit is expressed through the ROI, and key variables such as hydrogen production margin (HPM), system CAPEX ratio, system lifespan, and discount rate were calculated using a linear regression equation (R²: 0.95). As a result, HPM had the most significant impact on ROI (sensitivity: 39.44), while CAPEX and lifespan had minimal effects (sensitivity: 1.67, 1.27), and the discount rate had almost negligible impact (sensitivity: 0.007). These results quantified the impact of key parameters on hydrogen production system, hence this paper can support decision-making in the planning and investment of hydrogen production system.