| Title |
Methodology for Determining Operating Reserve Requirements Considering Day-Ahead Load Forecast Uncertainty |
| Authors |
정진형(Jinhyung Jeung) ; 김시준(Sijun Kim) ; 위영민(Young-Min Wi) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.5370/KIEE.2026.75.4.733 |
| Keywords |
Operating Reserve; Day-Ahead Load Forecasting; Forecast Uncertainty; Kernel Density Estimation |
| Abstract |
This paper presents a methodology for determining operating reserve requirements in the operating plan stage by explicitly incorporating day-ahead load forecast uncertainty. The proposed approach estimates the distribution of under-forecast errors using a non-parametric method and determines additional upward reserve requirements based on risk-based quantile selection reflecting the system operator’s objectives. To capture practical operating conditions, monthly classification and segmentation into high- and low-load periods are applied using recent system data. Case study results indicate that reserve requirements exceed 10% of annual peak demand during high-load periods, while stable operation is possible below the conventional minimum reserve criterion during low-load periods. Compared with a uniform reserve requirement, the proposed differentiated approach maintains system reliability while reducing unnecessary reserve procurement, thereby improving operational efficiency. |