| Title |
Climate-Scenario-Based Changes in Heating and Cooling Degree Days in South Korea: Revising U-Value Standards Under Climate Change |
| Authors |
Jeeyoon Lee ; Sungmin Yoon ; Doosam Song |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.6110/KJACR.2026.38.9.499 |
| Keywords |
냉?난방도일; 공공 데이터; SSP 시나리오; 열관류율 기준 개정 Heating?Cooling degree days; Open data; SSP scenarios; U-value revision |
| Abstract |
This study quantifies the impact of climate change on heating and cooling demands across South Korea and explores its implications for envelope U-value standards. Daily mean air temperatures from the Korea Meteorological Administration were transformed into spatially continuous gridded fields using inverse distance weighting. Heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) were calculated consistently for a baseline period as well as for future periods under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. These values were then aggregated to administrative districts to obtain district-level means and projected changes. The results indicate a nationwide decline in heating degree days and an increase in cooling degree days, with more pronounced shifts occurring under higher emissions scenarios and over longer time horizons. This trend pushes many districts toward warmer climate classifications, particularly near current zone boundaries. To address these changes, a framework for revising envelope U-values is proposed. This framework recalculates target U-values based on district-level changes in HDD and CDD to stabilize conductive loads in future climates. A composite indicator that combines HDD and CDD prevents the relaxation of standards based solely on declining HDD, while also accounting for the increasing CDD. The trends of decreasing HDD and increasing CDD remain consistent from the 10th to the 90th percentile. |