| Title |
A Study on Land Price Forecasting Model with Time Series Analysis |
| Abstract |
Land price of metropolis is measure of function and activity on city planning. Fluctuation of land price can be the primary of social problems, Especially, in Korea, land price so independent of commodity price that the two does not appear to be related in any possible way.Therefore, a study that helps to comprehend the unpredictable nature of land pric in Korea, thereby finding ways to forecast land price, is very critical and urgent.In this study, whereupon, form the estimating model of each city with univariate time series analysis of the heighest land price in 8 cities, land price forecasting is performed.The findings form this research are summarized as follows;1. Though tendency of land price is steady rising current, that forecasted not more than the past tense.2. Land price rising rate of Seoul will lower than the others, owing to the most fast influnce of plocy and condition.3. Forecastiog models of Busan and Kwangju are very unstable. And those mihgt show higher rising rate in fact than forecasting value.4. Land price tendency of big cities expose lead and lag according to urban size.In conclusion, without the stabilization of land price, it is hard to expect land price to be forecasted exactly |