| Title |
A Seismic Risk Analysis near Seoul for Seismic Reliability Assessment of Structures |
| Abstract |
Seismic risk analysis for a hypothetical site near Seoul was performed in order to obtain the exceedance probabilities of significant earthquakes in a year. The best estimate was determined through sensitivity study with regard to upper bound of source intensity, potential epicenter, and mean rate of earthquake occurrence. The results of this study shall be used in continuing paper for convolution with conditional exceedance probability to evaluate seismic reliability index of structures.The seismic risk of the site near Seoul comes dominantly from the MMI data of historical earthquakes during the 15th to 17th century, therefore the credibility of resulting reliability evaluation shall be directly dependent on the degree of accuracy and precision retained in seismological interpretation and intensity-rating of historical earthquake events. |