| Title |
A Study on Construction Cost Estimating Method based on Actual Cost Data |
| Keywords |
Cost estimating ; Monte-Carlo simulation ; Elemental Work Cost ; Quantity ; Regression Analysis ; Time series analysis |
| Abstract |
Construction projects are initiated in complex and dynamic environments resulting in circumstances of high uncertainty and risk, which are compounded by demanding cost constraints. The ability to make good cost overruns predictions is a very important aspect of in major construction project. Therefore a contingency allowance is an amount of money used to provide for uncertainties associated with a construction project. But the common practice of allowing for risk through an all-embracing contingency sum or percentage addition is challenged. The paper considers non-deterministic methods of analysing the risk exposure in a cost estimate. The method(referred to as the 'Monte Carlo simulation' method) interprets cost data indirectly, to generate a probability distribution for total costs from the deficient elemental experience cost distribution. The objectives of this research is to develop a computerized algorithms to forecast the probabilistic total construction cost and the elemental work cost at the planning stage. |