| Title |
A Feasibility Study Methodology Reflecting a Risk Forecasting Model of Privately Financed Construction Projects |
| Keywords |
Feasibility Analysis ; Risk Prediction Model ; Quantitative risk prediction value ; optimum portfolio ; VaR theory |
| Abstract |
The primary risk period in the life cycle of a construction project, which takes place during the feasibility analysis phase, is where the possibility of risk is at its highest. This phase is considered to be of utmost importance, as the success of high-value privately financed development projects is determined during this phase, through an analysis of risk factors which influence the efficiency of capital investment, and overall expected profits. But, because risk factors are being identified and assessed based on the personal judgment of the project manager, there is a lack of an objective standard and quantitative risk prediction method in the feasibility analysis phase where risks are identified and assessed. Therefore, the objective of this research to develop a feasibility analysis method reflecting a Risk Prediction Model which provides a quantitative risk prediction value through an objective assessment and analysis of the risk factors using optimum portfolio and Value at Risk(VaR) theory. To validate this methodology, using a quantitative and qualitative analysis an apartment housing project is used. |