| Title |
A Method of Forecasting EAC(Estimate At Completion) Using Monte Carlo Simulation |
| Authors |
Lee Dong-Jun ; Son Bo-Sik ; Kim Wooyoung ; Lee Hyun-Soo |
| Keywords |
Earned Value Management(EVM) ; Monte Carlo Simulation ; Estimate at Completion(EAC) ; Risk analysis |
| Abstract |
Cost estimating plays an integral role in all phases of project, from pre-project planning through construction. However, traditional methods of cost estimating failed to reflect the inherent variability of the real circumstances, as they were oriented toward a deterministic approach. Also most of the researches related to cost estimating only tried to forecast the total cost in the design phase, because it was difficult to measure the influence of various variables correctly during construction phase.
So, the purpose of this study is to develop a new method for minimizing uncertainties and for forecasting the total cost not only in the design phase but also in construction phase. This new method uses Monte Carlo Simulation which is a probability methodology for minimizing uncertainties, as an alternative to using a deterministic methodology in estimating the total cost, and is able to forecast the total cost in construction phase with considering variables.
In this study, we can measure more reliable EAC(Estimate at Completion) through the proposed method, analyze risk about the future, and work out recoverable countermeasures. Therefore this method can support decision maker to frame a policy about recoverable countermeasures in construction phase. |