Title |
A Study on the Estimation Process of the Contingency by the Regression Analysis on the Apartment Housing Projects |
Keywords |
Contingency ; Risk ; Regression Analysis ; Sensitivity Analysis ; Simulation |
Abstract |
The most matter for construction manager to carefully consider is to contract based on the contingency which can be estimated by reasonable methods at the early time of construction performance. To do it, it is important to accurately estimate costs and contingency associated with risk factors which are included in the project. To establish the real process, first of all, risk factors in construction project is classified and qualified according to a standard and then the process model to calculate contingency is suggested. The results of the study are followed ; (1) Factors to plus or minus costs and main activities in the apartment are determined. (2) According to input data, the regression model to estimate contingency is structured through variability percentage of construction costs and total costs, regression analysis and sensitiveness analysis. (3) Input data by simulation and process model were suggested. (4) Finally, efficiency of model was tested by appling a real case. |