| Title |
Project Scheduling Using Fuzzy PERT and Risk Assessment |
| Keywords |
Fuzzy ; Possibility ; Fuzzy PERT ; Risk Level ; Monte Carlo Simulation |
| Abstract |
In actual project control decisions, classical PERT, which is based upon beta distribution, presents a few deficiencies. The important one among them is that the critical path is deterministic. Generally speaking, classical PERT is explained as probabilistic approach. On the other hand, activity durations in the possibilistic approach are defined as fuzzy variables instead of random variables used in the traditional probabilistic approaches, which are classical PERT and Monte Carlo simulation. Through this study, we present one way of project scheduling using possibilistic approach in order to overcome a few shortcomings in the classical PERT and apply it to addressing the uncertainty of a project completed date. We propose the way to overcome the shortcomings of classical PERT that the critical path is deterministic and a single path, and that classical PERT approach overlooks a chance that a near-critical probability and its variability of a path is negated in the project network by finding the multiple possible critical paths in possibilistic project scheduling. These possible critical paths provide much information for the practical and flexible planning in estimating the project completion date and assist to setting the schedule contingency, which is defined as the buffer in project network. |