| Title |
Establishing the Probabilistic Model of Financial Analysis on Architectural Development Projects |
| Authors |
Lee Seong-Soo ; Kang Kyung-In |
| Keywords |
Architectural Development Projects ; Feasibility Study ; Probabilistic Method ; Monte Carlo Simulation ; Model |
| Abstract |
Although the importance of feasibility study on architectural development projects, the scientific study about it is insufficient. The purpose of this research is to provide the probabilistic model of financial analysis on architectural development works. On behalf of it, a comparative analysis between deterministic model using excel sheet and probabilistic model using Monte Carlo simulation. The results of this research are followed below.
1) The model can be applied to financial analysis of general architectural development projects. 2) There are 3% differences of ordinary income rate among development companies due to their ability of the feasibility study. 3) (As the result of the comparative analysis on the two models), the application of the probabilistic model is more desirable than deterministic one because the former is more correct, convenient for explanation and useful than the latter.
Consequently, the study provides not only the probabilistic model but also ground works for feasibility study on architectural development projects. |