| Title |
Development of Schedule Risk Simulation System using a Stochastic Method |
| Keywords |
Schedule Risk ; Risk Management ; Risk Analysis ; Stochastic Simulation |
| Abstract |
Lots of uncertain factors and risks which are not easy for a construction manager to control occur in high-rise and large-scale building projects. Because risks happen over the construction schedule, and cause delay, cost increase, or safety accidents, the best way to prevent loss of risk is to prevent the advent of risks.
Many researches and methods are proposed to manage schedule risks of building construction, but are inconvenient for a construction manager to use. This study proposes a schedule risk simulation system and develops a prototype using Microsoft Excel and Palisade @Risk for Excel.
The simulation system consists of a risk pool, a risk-response matrix, a simulator, and a user interface. The risk pool is a kind of database to store schedule risks, and the risk-response matrix links a risk and responses. The simulation system estimates the possibility of risk advent using probability functions that @Risk enables to apply to variables of risk. |