| Title |
Feasibility Study of an Construction Development Projects Adopting Computer Simulation |
| Authors |
Lee Seong-Soo ; Kang Kyung-In |
| Keywords |
Construction Development Projects ; Feasibility Study ; Probabilistic Method ; Monte Carlo Simulation ; Moment |
| Abstract |
Although the importance of the construction development project and the feasibility study increase recently, the scientific and the systemic studies of those are still insufficient. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the variation of the feasibility study by using Monte Carlo Simulation. For this purpose, the distribution form of the input value is derived from the analysis of the statistics data. And by evaluating the output value with the moment analysis, a author is to improve the accuracy and reliability of decision making. The results of this research are as follows.
1) The probabilistic method as the feasibility study is more suitable than the deterministic method because the probabilistic method reflects a skewness of the statistics data. 2) As the distribution form of input variable among the probabilistic method, the distribution for statistics data is more suitable than a distribution form that is decided by researcher arbitrarily. 3) The result for analyzing the statistics of the ordinary profit rate, the distribution form for statistics data has the stable business structure compared to the normal or triangular distribution.
This research is meaningful for laying the foundation of the construction development project and the feasibility study as well as the accuracy of feasibility study. |