| Title |
Forecasting Methods for Monthly Expenditures by Monte-Carlo Simulation - Focused on Apartment Housing Project - |
| Authors |
Kim, Geun-Hwan ; Yu, Jung-Ho ; Kim, Chang-Duk |
| Keywords |
Monte-Carlo Simulation ; Monthly Expenditures ; Historical Data |
| Abstract |
The importance of fundraising and forecasting the expenditure is emphasized for not only the decisive factor determining the success or failure of the project but also as an essential element of management stabilization. The monthly expenditure flow is used for financial analysis of the cash flow in construction site, financial costs, and intermediate payment, and the process control. But construction industry has a difficulty to forecast the monthly expenditure by reason of high liquidity of expenditure according to market situation, lack of professional experts, and short advance preparation at the first stage of the project. As there is no objective methodology, it is still dependent on the ability of the person in charge of the project. Due to the nature of construction industry which market fluctuates severely, forecasting cash flow and making provisions for change would be the necessary condition to enhance competitiveness and survive in harsh competition. In this sense, at the first stage of the project which there is less usable information, it is essential to forecast monthly expenditure using objective methodology. In this research, I would provide more objective and exact monthly expenditure forecast method, based on the information of completed record, using a fusible data regarding rough final costs at the first stage of the project and the entire construction period. |