| Title |
Long-Term Demand Forecasting Electric Power by Using Home Appliances in Residential Sector |
| Keywords |
Residential Buildings ; Electricity Consumption ; Home Appliances ; Demand Forecasting |
| Abstract |
Despite the Government's various efforts to stabilize the supply of energy, recently there has been an increased concern about the stability of electricity supply in the summer and winter seasons. This study holds purpose in quantitatively estimating long-term electricity demand based on the use of home appliances in residential sector. Home appliances used in housing can be divided into air-conditioning unit, heating, brown goods and lighting. Analysis was carried out on a total of 23 types of electrical appliances and used Gompertz model for demand forecasting of its penetration rate. Residential sector consumed 61,564.3GWh of electric power in 2011 and showed a 24.5% of energy resource. According to estimations of electricity demand, it is expected that in 2030, 86,153GWh of electricity will be consumed. In 2030, electric power consumption per household will amount to approximately 3.97MWh and this is approximately 8.4% higher than that of 2010. This study's results are expected to be used as basic quantitative data for ensuring stable supply and management of electric power on a national level. |